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Over 14% of Worldwide Population Has (Had) Lyme

Discussion in 'Infections: Lyme, Candida, EBV ...' started by duncan, Jul 22, 2022.

  1. duncan

    duncan Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroo...ation-likely-has-had-tick-borne-lyme-disease/

    If the current world population is 7.9 billion, that would suggest over a billion Lyme infections. A commonly acknowledged portion that stay ill is about 20%.

    If my math is in the ball park, almost 200,000,000 globally remain sick with something originating with Lyme - whether it's late stage Lyme, or PTLDS, or chronic Lyme.
     
  2. Andy

    Andy Committee Member

    Messages:
    21,809
    Location:
    Hampshire, UK
    The paper that the news release is based on.

    Global seroprevalence and sociodemographic characteristics of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in human populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Abstract

    Introduction
    Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (Bb) infection, the most frequent tick-transmitted disease, is distributed worldwide. This study aimed to describe the global seroprevalence and sociodemographic characteristics of Bb in human populations.

    Methods
    We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and other sources for relevant studies of all study designs through 30 December 2021 with the following keywords: ‘Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato’ AND ‘infection rate’; and observational studies were included if the results of human Bb antibody seroprevalence surveys were reported, the laboratory serological detection method reported and be published in a peer-reviewed journal. We screened titles/abstracts and full texts of papers and appraised the risk of bias using the Cochrane Collaboration-endorsed Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Data were synthesised narratively, stratified by different types of outcomes. We also conducted random effects meta-analysis where we had a minimum of two studies with 95% CIs reported. The study protocol has been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021261362).

    Results
    Of 4196 studies, 137 were eligible for full-text screening, and 89 (158 287 individuals) were included in meta-analyses. The reported estimated global Bb seroprevalence was 14.5% (95% CI 12.8% to 16.3%), and the top three regions of Bb seroprevalence were Central Europe (20.7%, 95% CI 13.8% to 28.6%), Eastern Asia (15.9%, 95% CI 6.6% to 28.3%) and Western Europe (13.5%, 95% CI 9.5% to 18.0%). Meta-regression analysis showed that after eliminating confounding risk factors, the methods lacked western blotting (WB) confirmation and increased the risk of false-positive Bb antibody detection compared with the methods using WB confirmation (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.2). Other factors associated with Bb seropositivity include age ≥50 years (12.6%, 95% CI 8.0% to 18.1%), men (7.8%, 95% CI 4.6% to 11.9%), residence of rural area (8.4%, 95% CI 5.0% to 12.6%) and suffering tick bites (18.8%, 95% CI 10.1% to 29.4%).

    Conclusion
    The reported estimated global Bb seropositivity is relatively high, with the top three regions as Central Europe, Western Europe and Eastern Asia. Using the WB to confirm Bb serological results could significantly improve the accuracy. More studies are needed to improve the accuracy of global Lyme borreliosis burden estimates.

    Open access, https://gh.bmj.com/content/7/6/e007744
     
    Peter Trewhitt, duncan and Wonko like this.
  3. CRG

    CRG Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    Location:
    UK
    Seropositivity doesn't = illness, only past exposure to an infective agent.

    If health is impacted then a global patient population featuring 50+year old rural living males heavily concentrated in Eastern Asia (pop 1.7 bn) would make an interesting contrast to the current picture of Chronic Lyme distribution. Absence of this illness burden could suggest higher levels of resistance or existence of compensatory responses to tick borne disease in Asia population compared to Europe.
     
    Leila, DokaGirl, alktipping and 4 others like this.
  4. duncan

    duncan Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    A small correction if you don't mind: Seropositivity doesn't necessarily reflect current infection, it can at best only indicate exposure.

    That being said, Lyme almost invariably progresses from IgMs to IgGs, so we'd expect everyone who tested positive for past exposure to technically test positive for late stage Lyme. That doesn't mean they have late stage Lyme. But no one can prove that they don't thanks to the state of TBD diagnostics.
     
  5. duncan

    duncan Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    Or different prevalences of various tick species and Bbsl strains, depending on geography.
     
    alktipping, Peter Trewhitt and CRG like this.
  6. DokaGirl

    DokaGirl Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    Wow. Shocking number!
     
    duncan likes this.
  7. duncan

    duncan Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    It got my attention.

    What for me is possibly even more disconcerting, is I suspect (but do not know) this estimate did not include seronegative Lyme patients. Add those individuals into the mix and that 200 million mark may be lowballing it.
     
    DokaGirl likes this.

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