Driving under viral impairment: Linking acute SARS-CoV-2 infections to elevated car crash risks, 2025, Baran Erdik

Driving under viral impairment: Linking acute SARS-CoV-2 infections to elevated car crash risks

Baran Erdik

[Line breaks added]

Abstract
This study explores the linkage between acute SARS-CoV-2 and car crashes across U.S. states, correlating with COVID-19 mitigation strategies, vaccination rates, and Long COVID prevalence. This investigation analyzed aggregate COVID-19 and car crash data spanning 2020–2023, with data collection occurring between March and May 2024. Analysis was done via a Poisson regression model, adjusted for population. Key variables included vaccination status, month-specific effects relating to initial pandemic shutdowns, and Long COVID rates.

Results demonstrated a significant association between acute COVID-19 infections and an increase in car crashes, independent of Long COVID status to the tune of an OR of 1.25 [1.23-1.26]. This association was observed despite varying mitigation efforts and vaccination rates across states. The study found no protective effect of vaccination against car crashes, challenging prior assumptions about the benefits of vaccination. Notably, the risk associated with COVID-19 was found to be analogous to driving impairments seen with alcohol consumption at legal limits.

Findings suggest significant implications for public health policies, especially in assessing the readiness of individuals recovering from COVID-19 to engage in high-risk activities such as pilots or nuclear plant employees. Further research is necessary to establish causation and explore the exact effects of COVID-19 within the CNS affecting cognition and behavior.

Link | PDF (PLOS Global Public Health) [Open Access]

 

I'm having a hard time following the methods. But if vaccination had no protective effect against car crashes, doesn't that refute their conclusion that COVID infections may be causing crashes? They don't explain this discrepancy, yet they say their findings "provide substantial support for the hypothesis that acute COVID-19 contributes to increased car crash risk."

And I don't understand why the paper reports the odds ratio from the univariate model (1.25) that only uses % positive PCR and not the multivariate model that also includes vaccinations, month, and population, even though that's higher (1.44).

 

I found this previous publication by the same author and another person, where they found an OR of 1.5.

https://www.neurology.org/doi/pdfdirect/10.1212/01.wnl.0001051276.37012.c2