Incidence of Long COVID diagnoses in 3.6 million US Medicare beneficiaries with COVID-19, 2025, Abul et al

Incidence of Long COVID diagnoses in 3.6 million US Medicare beneficiaries with COVID-19

Yasin Abul, Daniel A Harris, Preeti Chachlani, Kaleen N Hayes, Andrew R Zullo, Vincent Mor, Stefan Gravenstein

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Background
Long COVID incidence and risk factors in older adults need to be better characterized to identify risk mitigation strategies. Our aim was to quantify the incidence of Long COVID in a population-based sample of older adults and to describe the association between COVID-19 vaccination and Long COVID risk.

Methods
This cohort study included Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries ≥ 66 years diagnosed with COVID-19 between October 1, 2021, and March 31, 2023 (index date). Long COVID diagnoses were identified from Medicare Part A-B claims based on ICD-10-CM code U09.9. We measured the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered prior to the index date using Medicare Part B claims and pharmacy records. Kaplan-Meier estimators, Cox proportional hazards, and Fine-Grey regression models were used to estimate the 1-year cumulative incidence and relative rate of Long COVID.

Results
We identified 3,588,671 Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with COVID-19. Overall, 3.89% of beneficiaries were diagnosed with Long COVID over one year.

A gradient in the one-year cumulative incidence of Long COVID was observed according to the number of prior COVID-19 vaccine doses. Beneficiaries with four or more COVID-19 vaccine doses had a 39% lower adjusted rate of Long COVID relative to beneficiaries without a prior dose (aHR=0.61, 95%CI=0.60-0.62).

Conclusions
Long COVID diagnoses in Medicare claims were common in a large sample of older adults with COVID-19, and we observed a gradient in Long COVID risk across the number of prior COVID-19 vaccine doses. Promoting continued vaccination may be an effective strategy to mitigate the burden of Long COVID in older adults

Link (The Journals of Gerontology: Series A) [Paywall]

 

If the risk only decreases by 39 % from four doses, you can hardly call that effective «mitigation». It would still be a huge issue. I wish they could have stated it outright that vaccines alone are not enough.

 

Is there even a single country that still has COVID vaccination programs? Where it's not an ordeal to even get one by paying for it? Plus the whole population would have to be regularly vaccinated so this is straight up "Imagine a world"-based medicine. Certainly not for such a small relative change.

Most people can't even be bothered with the traditional "eat well and exercise regularly" advice, which is massively overhyped as the closest thing to the Fountain of youth, because doing so barely gives any perceptible benefits. The idea that most people will make such a choice about a vaccine for which the entire messaging has been botched and for a small relative decrease in risk for something medicine itself doesn't even take seriously is ludicrous.

Also, a 4% rate of diagnosis probably supports the general finding of a 8-12% incidence, given how most cases won't be diagnosed, and physicians are still super weird about LC.

It would sure be great if medicine integrated the fact of what it means for LC incidence to drop based on vaccination, and how it completely upends all the junk claims that have been made about psychosocial this and that.

 

I think in the US, anyone with private or government health insurance can get it for free. Both doctors I've had over the years have asked if I want a flu and COVID shot when the time of year comes around.