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Thanks so much @Snow Leopard for your analysis of this paper, much appreciated. I posted the following report which supports the public wearing of face masks in the thread about face masks: https://rs-delve.github.io/reports/2020/05/04/face-masks-for-the-general-public.html. The only reason I...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/05/just-273-people-arriving-in-uk-in-run-up-to-lockdown-quarantined

All the members of (the actual) SAGE group have now been published, except for two members who did not give permission for their names to be released. You can read the full list of names here...

As reported on The Guardian website today, The Royal Society for Data Evaluation and Learning for Viral Epidemics (DELVE) has just published a report which comes out in favour of face masks being worn by the general public...

Rival Sage group says Covid-19 policy must be clarified And more... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/rival-sage-group-covid-19-policy-clarified-david-king

I think you might be getting specificity and sensitivity mixed up (it’s a bit confusing so easily done!). 99.5% specificity means that 99.5% of healthy people are correctly identified and 0.5% are false positives. Specificity doesn’t tell you anything about how many true positives there are -...

Thank you @Snow Leopard for your comments. I wonder whether you find the evidence for asymptomatic transmission presented in the following study anymore compelling? (note it’s a preprint not peer reviewed) The extract below is from the results section of the paper: Suppression of COVID-19...

This study found that children are at a similar risk of infection to the general population: [My bolding] They also found that 20% of cases were asymptomatic at the time of the first clinical assessment. @Snow Leopard I don’t think the relatively high rates of asymptotic cases being...

Perhaps I am mistaken but I thought it had been demonstrated by this study?: Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5

Yes and we also know that there are very high rates of asymptomatic transmission in adults so people can certainly be very infectious without any coughing. The study also points out that children also have greater physical activity and closer social engagement than adults...

Actually that’s a different study to the one I commented on (the names of the two studies have very similar titles so I can see how one could easily mistake them for being the same study) I found this statement from the study you looked at interesting: Surely fear is a consequence of the...

I wonder if the idea of behavioural fatigue came from this paper (co-authored by Wesseley and on SAGE’s evidence list): The psychological impact of quarantine and how to reduce it: rapid review of the evidence They also advised against having “an overly precautious approach” to...

The FT data on excess deaths is a few weeks old so is now out of date. The more recent data suggests Sweden is doing much worse than that unfortunately. If you scroll down to the map of z-score by country on the following webpage you’ll see what I mean...

Coronavirus: Switzerland says young children can hug grandparents https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52470838

Apologies for cross-posting, but what I posted on the coronavirus - worldwide spread and control thread probably belongs here: Wessely’s name appears on a number of publications that have been used as evidence for “SPI-B” who are the SAGE subcommittee on behavioural and social interventions...

Wessely’s name appears on a number of publications that have been used as evidence for “SPI-B” who are the SAGE subcommittee on behavioural and social interventions. Rubin’s name crops too...

[My bolding] After taking another look at this paper I noticed that Charlotte Houldcroft made a small but crucial mistake in this interview for The Guardian. The study actually found live virus up until day 8 (not day 7 as stated) suggesting that the subjects in this study were infectious for 8...

Thanks Leila, that was my mistake. When I first read your post I saw that you had mentioned another study but during the time in took me to read the first study I’d forgotten all about the second study (ME brain)! I’ve now had a chance to read through Hong Kong study too which is interesting...

So cute :)

Thank you Leila! Yes I think that is probably the study to which she is referring. Yes maybe but this is only one study and it’s only looking at nine cases which strikes me as a very small number. Also, all the subjects in the study were mild and described as “all being young- to middle-aged...