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Big picture: This was a challenging paper to write - difficult topic and difficult circumstances. It needed an exceptional scientist to guide it. Nath was not that scientist. He let down the mission of science by permitting this to be published in its current form. As the sample size receded...

This was a challenging paper to write - difficult topic and difficult circumstances. It needed an exceptional scientist to guide it. Nath was not that scientist. He let down the mission of science by permitting this to be published in its current form. As the sample size receded they needed to...

I think this is likely. Another possibility for some patients - and another reason the test might not be valid - is some might be aware of the history and when they see this easy/hard game come along, choose hard as much as they can with one eye on how the data might be intepreted !!

This does matter a lot. I consider it part of my #1 reason this test fails but you've made me realise it could be expressed more powerfully and directly.

I did a quick dig to see if their measurement of metabolites in cerebrospinal fluid lined up with a previous study on the same topic. I bring bad news. The folllowing plot is just a rough draft of the final analysis but it shows big disagreement. Many things Baraniuk 2021 found high, NIH found...

His strategy dominates everyone else's. Losing easy tasks is the simplest way to not dilute whatever hard tasks you've won (or those you hope to win later) ; in terms of prizes "in the basket". Winning easy tasks is an almost* pure bad strategy. Even if you're not sure if you can win a hard...

Good luck Daniel! Appreciate the attitude of not just doing the steps but making sure they matter.

Some screenshots from the game. Note that there's no clock ticking when you're filling up the bar so you don't know if you're going to make it. Here's how the bar looks before you fill it up. This is it about halfway full.

Ooh, you can play EEfRT on your own computer. https://www.millisecond.com/download/library/v6/effortexpenditureforrewardtask/effortexpenditureforrewardtask/effortexpenditureforrewardtask.web requires download and I am not guaranteeing it is virus free but I downloaded it and my computer still...

Got a reply from Treadway on EEfRT. He seems suitably cautious about the utility of using it in this population. Hi, Sorry for the delay. The task has not been specifically validated as a measure of fatigue. My understanding of the paper is that they are trying to understand the clinical...

I feel satisfied that I understand the test fails on 3 levels: 1. It is conceptually inappropriate to use in mecfs, a physical disease where effort preference isn't a legitmate scientific question, and in which the test hasn't been validated 2. The high failure rate of ME/CFS patients on hard...

1. My memory of this research program is they brought each patient in sequentially. Each person was at nih for around a week, one after another. (Which is why it took so long). Somebody way upthread was pondering this too but there's no way for subjects to speak to each other irl. 2. Because...

My reading is that the oil mostly comes from "dogfish" which is the shark they use for fish and chips. Apparently they're catching these fish anyway, they're pleased to be able to use the livers for something. What's more 25% of the weight of the shark is liver. Happily, dogfish is not...

Peroxisomes help make plasmalogens. A plasmalogen shortage is one of the findings by Lipkin. Also one of the theories in this hypothesis paper from Canada...

This paper has been extended by Che, Lipkin and Fiehn here: https://www.s4me.info/threads/bayesian-statistics-improves-biological-interpretability-of-metabolomics-data-from-human-cohorts-2023-brydges-che-lipkin-and-fiehn.27730/#post-496038 They bundle the results of their paper with...

There's history and precedent of booting out the data of people who try to maximise their payout, as shown in the next two screengrabs. This should be evidence EEfRT is a mess. But in terms of a fight over whether HVF's data should have been excluded, it's likely to weigh on Wallitt's side. It...

Here's a chart of hard tasks chosen (% terms) vs expected prize money (2x the mean of the prize awarded for tasks completed). We can see HVF is an outlier in these terms (top left in blue). PWME shown in red. If this test was really well-designed you'd expect the points to form a tighter...

While the exclusion of HVF's data is an outrage (he isn't even an outlier in terms of hard tasks chosen, all players played hard more often when the prize was high so his strategy isn't odd, and losing the easy tasks doesn't affect the primary endpoint) I agree choosing that battle is like...

I did email Treadway, back on the 22nd of February before I'd even dug in much. Hi Michael This new Nature Communications paper from a big NIH working group uses your effort metric and it ends up being a part of their conclusions. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-45107-3#Abs1 Does...

Above I posted a chart of Healthy volunteer F and their button presses. Below is an equivalent chart for all participants, which shows two important things. 1. Several participants lose easy tasks at various points, possibly deliberately (look for short red bars). Healthy Volunteer B and...