I think there is a claim that a recession increases suicides and some seem to be claiming that a recession generally increases mortality rates.But...
Its not testing by itself that seems to be important but the test and tracking so that if someone has a positive test you can look at who they...
Another modelling paper that looks interesting which addresses issues around symptoms within different age groups and how this may affect...
Really you should think of models as ways to animate a set of assumptions and see how they play out. The predictive power is often really poor and...
The paper is here https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0
They are but when I was talking to someone there last week he was talking about traveling on crowded public transport still. Yet the infection...
There is another modelling paper that was released yesterday in the lancet looking at interventions in Singapore. I don't think its saying...
Yes I wonder if the model actually does what they think. I would have thought it would be easier to rewrite in a different language which supports...
Neil Ferguson is talking about making his modelling software available but looks like it may take time [MEDIA]
I wonder if another value of a mask is stopping yourself touching your face or at least around your mouth.
Even a small change in the parameter of 2 to 2.05 changes the estimate by 1million. So if you are really going to believe in this formula you...
Not really the death rate will depend on how the spread is occurring. You are making an assumption of equal spread over the whole population but...
I wonder about the key worker thing. There are key workers such as people working in health who seem at high risk. But there are those whose risk...
One concern is that the funders will be pushing money into pandemic research rather than into things like ME. However, one argument for increasing...
One of the things they did was a test and track process where people were tracked by their phones and if they walked near someone who was later...
I think that is a very simplistic view. The spread rate will depend on what mitigations are in place to prevent spread and the death rate depends...
Yes but people are also largely confined to their homes. To me that was an argument that was falling back to having a cordon and claiming people...
This one from Wessely is very poor and certainly not evidence just opinion. He seems to think quarantining happens to a whole area rather than...
I assume fatality rates will vary hugely with population health and demographics. Given the death rate with older people is worse then if you have...
I would have thought that it isn't as simple as a 14 day peak with lock down as if one person in a family (locked down together) has it then it is...
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