I wonder if there is a real issue that there aren't any politicians with a scientific background and I suspect that they don't know how to analyze the data and ask the questions. So they end up not asking their scientific advisors who don't seem to know what they are doing and don't understand...
@PhysiosforME have published a response
https://www.physiosforme.com/opposition-to-fatigue-leaflet
Letter signed by various groups
https://cec5c48f-2e98-4bb8-9110-208373420a79.filesusr.com/ugd/4f94c1_c7aa8bd5b9c748888a32e5e992dd323f.pdf
That doesn't surprise me I think quite a few older people isolated early on.
I think the spread over different regions is a huge factor which may well dominate over any other factors. London has been bad and that (I guess) is the area where people are most likely to travel to work by train.
The guardian is starting to cover some of the issues
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/19/disabled-people-left-off-coronavirus-vulnerable-list-go-without-food
The UK figures quoted are hospital deaths so they are not the ONS figures which look at death certs. There are corrected hospital figures which correct for the day of death rather than the day that the report was made.
There is a report here on spread https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/sit-rep/2020-04-17?f_country=USA
They let you see the data and do your own analysis by the looks of it. They have a player that plays through the spread patterns
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/north-america/2020-04-17
If you look at the UK the major city (London) was hit early and in a big way - and London is around 13% of the UK popuation.
I wonder if the US population is more spread. In the US New York was hit but other large cities (such as Houston) weren't but still locked down (relatively early). So...
This document shows some potentially interesting correlations over different areas in the UK with infection numbers against various stats such as population density, age, disability, deprivation etc
I'm not sure what to make of any of them in terms that none look that great a correlation to me...
My suspicion is that they don't have the data collected. One of the things I've been shocked about is the poor quality of data available it it taking a long time for reports to get through.
But it does make me wonder if they don't have the data how can they make proper decisions.
They are...
Isn't there a wider point here in that you can't do a meta analysis over the effectiveness of an intervention by including multiple different interventions. If Cochrane wants to review GET they need to go back to the treatment protocols and classify what is actually meant by GET. If they want to...
I thought one of the interesting things he talked about was whether the bad symptoms (putting people in ICU) were due to the virus or I think he was suggesting that they were due to the host response to the virus.
I'm confused about what is happening with Vaccines. There is the Oxford group https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/18/coronavirus-vaccine-trials-could-be-completed-by-mid-august who are claiming that they will have a vaccine tested by September. Yet others (including Lipkin) talked about...
As I understand it Apple and Google aren't supportive of the NHS app which presents problems in that for it to work the phone needs to be unlocked and the app needs to be in the forground. They are doing their own library to support apps that have a decentralized privacy model instead but the...
This looks like a good article on the advantages of wearing masks and how it affects R0. It goes through the different bits of evidence.
https://www.fast.ai/2020/04/13/masks-summary/
This paper came out yesterday talking about ACE-2 receptors and the relationship with SARS.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.036418v1
Also another story talking of ACE2 receptors...
Not sure. Hancock talked about it today so it could happen sometime in the next 10 years. The concern would be what data they are tracking. They talked about releasing source code but they also need to publish protocols they are using for review.
The point about what the DP-3T group are trying to do is to reduce the privacy risks by not having central data collection. If you don't have good data then it is hard to abuse the privacy of individuals - although correlation with mobile records could be possible.
I did see something...
I thought is was a great cartoon. I've not read through the protocols yet but I suspect there is some complex maths behind bits of it and cryptography is often not easy to explain or understand.
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