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I'm wondering if the model or results are just wrong for the UK. But it isn't clear to me what the different assumptions they are making are.

Some model predictions for deaths are reported here http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates Predictions for the UK seem very high (66,000) in relation to other countries (say 20,000 for Italy) but I'm not sure why.

The UK ONS (Office of national statistics) have been collecting stats at a slower rate than announcements but probably with a higher degree of accuracy. They are looking at death rates from death certificates rather than hospital reports and they are doing so in batches. It seems to show a...

This report is suggesting an ICU in london is running short on other things then ventilators including dialysis machines. Suggesting other organs are being damaged as well as respiratory issues https://www.ft.com/content/e26524a5-c868-451c-a7d7-a91627a1722c

Some have expressed concern that the death figures aren't very timely in that they are saying it can take a few days for them to be reported from the hospital. The recovered figure seems to have been constant for a while so my guess would be its not being collected/reported. It does make me...

Issues are now being raised with the Hydroxychloroquine-COVID-19 study I think due to methodological failures in the rush to publish https://retractionwatch.com/2020/04/06/hydroxychlorine-covid-19-study-did-not-meet-publishing-societys-expected-standard/

It seems to me that some in the medical profession don't get basic notions of risk. He could be right but by the sounds of it he doesn't have a strong evidence base for his beliefs. If he is wrong and we followed his advice could lead to increased virus spread; if he is right then not following...

An interesting tweet from Vincent Rananiello about prediction of who will have respiratory failure. Which refers to this paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20047381v1.full.pdf

If anyone is interested in proximity tracing that preserves privacy then there is a report out by a number of cryptographers on how this could be done. I've not read it but the people involved are good. https://github.com/DP-3T/documents/blob/master/DP3T%20-%20Data%20Protection%20and%20Security.pdf

Kings collage have been developing a Covid symptom tracking App. It comes from the group that does the twins studies. One of the people involved in the Twins study (Francis Williams) presented at the recent CMRC conference which made me wonder if this app could be made into a long term tracking...

Judging by a tweet from Costello there may be issues with this report

I wonder if we have an issue because too many of the scientists who get the governments ear are those who are good at the politics and go into administration rather than those who are good scientists (who want to spend there time doing the research).

One of the things I thought was interesting in this article by Anthony Costello was the suggestion that symptom tracking would be sufficient within a test and track program rather then requiring the test kits that we don't seem able to have. I would have thought that would depend on the...

A member who wishes to remain anonymous made a complaint to the advertising standards agency (ASA) about the Gupta 10 day Corona virus challenge. The ASA have responded to say that there is a previous ruling against the owner or originator of the video and the video seems to fall within the...

I think one of the reasons for the battery being fixed is that it is no longer just a replacable battery but small batteries are spread over the device in order to keep the size down. If there is free space in any area then it can be filled with battery bits.

That didn't really make sense to me. I think Bluetooth chips have a unique Id which is associated with the manufacturer and then unique for the device from that. But to use these for contact tracing you would need to be reporting these back to a central service. Then associating them with user...

This is the type of thing they need to be doing but if they don't couple it with a wider test program it may be pointless. How can they identify coronavirus carriers if they are doing such limited testing. On the privacy aspect I did see a cryptographer comment recently about using privacy...

Staff in Oncology or Haematology are the ones who often use protective stuff as they have immune compromised patients. If Covid got into the Haematology ward I would have thought it could be disastrous.

I think there should be a long term study taking a few thousand people and following them up at regular intervals. Something like doing the DPQ or the questions that the UK Biobank use as a measure of fatigue/PEM/Other ME type symptoms Along with questions about other health issues would...

I would have thought if 90% of tests are coming back positive then this doesn't give much info as you are testing those you have a strong belief are ill. We need to be testing those who are in contact with people who are ill to avoid further transmission. If tests are limited shouldn't we test...