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They even used piloted drones to monitor anyone moving around.

There is, at least in some countries, a substantial percentage of the population who just don't do this, or who cherry pick the information. The only way to stop this is legally enforced lockdown. In modern democracies this level of authoritarian control has issues. I still think it can be...

I commented on this elsewhere, but I wonder how many people would be happy with bright purple hands? Better than the alternative of course, but it might make the idea hard to catch on. The other problem is iodine is in short supply globally, or at least it was the last time I looked into this.

Biochemistry doesn't matter, only thoughts and feelings matter ... no scientist should take this seriously.

The problem is we are still trying to figure this out. We have good data on death rates from those who are hospitalised, less good on the less sick.

Their comment on Italy implies they completely shut down public transport, and massively mobilised government assistance and monitoring. Does anyone have more information on this?

Its too early. The rate of increase is declining, that is a good trend and early indicator. However apparently Italy only has a partial lockdown, at least according to Chinese experts who are there. It may need to be even stricter.

There are at least four issues here, and probably more I am not thinking about. First, modern political culture seems to often consider experts as unreliable, they pick and choose who they listen to. Those who listen without preselecting favourites, learn. Second, people have been told that...

Exactly.

Yet its the same situation in terms of human response. In medieval plagues they finally resorted in some places to nailing the doors shut on houses with sick people in them. Or just burned it down with living people inside. Anything to stop them moving around. We sometimes run when there is...

This is a classic epidemic situation, and goes right back to the historical plagues.

With us its mostly travel related, though that is changing. Based on those cases we know were related to travel from specific countries, the country most people caught it from is .... the USA, at 34 cases.

We don't have full data, there is uncertainty. Ergo, you cannot believe any of it? Where have I seen that tactic before? Take something self-evident, like we don't have all the data on survivors, non-survivors, and survivors with ongoing problems. This is obvious. Then imply there is nothing to...

... from a pretend doctor?

I think this only kicks in when the system is overwhelmed. Is that the case already?

According to the latest Imperial College paper, over 70% of patients over 80 require critical care, presumably an ICU placement. We see higher death rates reported on, but demand for critical care goes up radically as age advances. I would guess this is also true for patients in higher risk...

... the bane of human existence. Most of us do not have the temperament nor training to do this, even professionals.

I did the math. Well before 90 days its everyone on the planet, presuming other factors don't intervene. We can definitely slow it enough to make a big difference if there is enough political will and good advice.

I suspect this is right. The secondary consequences will also hit hard. I am concerned what effect this will have on industrial economy, and knock-on effects, and no this is not about money. I cannot discuss this concern here because its outside the issues allowed on this forum, and will invoke...

This graph you include shows an average increase of 33% per day for Italy. If this is the general case its close to the worst case scenario I discussed elsewhere. There is a tapering off over time though, wish I knew more what that was about. Is it just isolation and quarantine? If that is the...