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I agree with those who have said that the herd immunity issue makes no sense. You need about 80% + of people to have had the disease to get that and that means 80% of the population exposed to the dangers involved - saving a few percent of people from getting it is hardly a policy. I think the...

yes

I disagree. As I have been saying for about a month the is NO RIGHT SPEED that will avoid complete health care breakdown (which we already have) that will deal with this in less than about TEN YEARS. Nobody seems to have noticed that in the UK government. Moreover, allowing a pandemic to evolve...

Even when a lot is known I think there will be no absolute answer - it will be a matter of gradually reducing statistical risk. But I think you probably have a pretty good analysis already. Seven days from symptom onset seems risky, if only because the virus can survive on surfaces for a few...

Hospitals do not organise anythng much these days.They outsource.Catering is probably provided by commercial outfits. Nobody had any idea how to plan a co-ordinated action.

And 5,000 out of about 100,000-200,000 infected people have died from Covid19 in a month. The population has a lot of immunity to flu so it does not spread to everyone. Covid19 can be expected to spread to everyone. So the expected number of deaths from Covid19 in Italy this year is about 1.5...

The reports of people going to Skegness for a day out in the amusement arcade are horrific. But I think taking a caravan to the Highlands sounds pretty good altruistic sense to me. If those involved then shut themselves away or walk at a distance from others then they are not only likely to...

Relevant part of post copied from this thread I was thinking a bit more about the school policy. The policy of allowing children of essential workers to go to school looks to me to be a disaster. Presumably within a week or two ALL these children will be infected, with the result that ALMOST...

I don't think so. As far as I know how much sugar you eat has absolutely nothing to do with the synthesis of glycoproteins. Sugars are made from fat in the body if sugar intake is less. Diabetics get something called protein glycation - which is the abnormal addition of glucose molecules to...

I don't like all this stuff about multi system disease and spurious things about metabolism, immune cells, spots in the brain and HPA axes. Why not be honest and say we know nothing about the pathophysiology. People get it into their head that they have a problem with energy metabolism or...

The figures for coronavirus are eye-watering. But what is not clear - because the modellers did not map this - is to what extent the deaths would have happened without coronavirus. Yes, well, all people die, so why bother being a doctor? From what I can see there is no similarity between...

Don't be too hard on us second home owners. We have always had a second home (actually our first own home) as a way of surviving working in London NHS hospitals during the week. Now our daughter works for a state school we need two homes so that she can work and we can hide away in Suffolk. Now...

I do not see how there can have been any relevant evidence. The psychological situation is different for each infectious disease - smallpox, TB, flu, syphilis, measles, coronavirus. Without ever previously having an epidemic with the parameters of Covid19 there is no way of knowing how people...

Depends on whose rough estimate you want I guess! The computer modellers will no doubt have an estimate with no relation to reality. The government may think they have a plan and an idea of how things will start to turn but from what I have seen they have no understanding at present. My...

It seems that Dr Smith does not keep himself up to date. We took the best research that we could get and asked people who were recognized experts to write and review for us. There's never an excuse for an editor letting poor quality stuff through. The editor has a responsibility to know who is...

I think maybe getting us out of an Italy scenario with young doctors dying by the day. At least they are escalating. And if enough people watch the news they will start to realise just why it is worth self-isolating.

Thanks for that @Lucibee, very useful. It seems that there is some evidence for antibody titres dropping rather early with coronaviruses. I am not sure that it is easy to interpret that. Humoral immune memory is complex and we don't have a model that really explains what we find. Tests may be...

I don't quite see why it cannot be done yet. Or at least for everything to be done to get it started - i.e. stringent lockdown and as much testing as feasible. At least it should be possible to test people known to have been in close contact with positive cases and people with cough and fever.

Mr Johnson is responsible at present. Previously Mr Hunt, Mr Hancock, Mr Lansley... also Mr Milburn in his way. The NHS has been restructured such that nobody is responsible because nobody has enough resources. This lunchtime Whitty is still talking of flattening a peak. Either this is a...