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If everyone is doing their best to keep themselves to themselves testing asymptomatic people is probably not helpful, unless there is a contact line. The problem at the moment is that at least in London they have allowed mixing so much that almost anyone is likely to have a contact history. I...

I interpreted this as indicating that numbers were rising in new areas where lockdown was not yet being teen seriously. From what I had heard the regions that have been in lock down for a while have greatly reduced cases. But this may be wrong.

The NHS is already overwhelmed. I hope it gets back in control but I think there is a real chance that medical professionals will be so pissed off and frightened that they will walk out, as the teachers did this week in very large numbers. There was no communal decision to down tools. People...

That seems a pretty reasonable set of arguments. I thought Ioannidis was woolly and ill-informed.

I agree we do not have evidence, so do not know, but I still think we can be 99% sure on the basis of what we know of how viral infection and recovery works. The only real exception I am aware of is the norovirus group which infects gut mucosa and gut immunity is importantly different from other...

Yes, this is neurological conditions that are a subset of long term conditions and I read the category simply as implying fluctuating or hard to classify or predict severity at any given time.

I think we can be 99% sure after infection people are immune. Otherwise the infection would not resolve or there would be thousands of cases of repeat illness. There has been a case of a test going negative then positive but it is not a test of immunity and almost certainly means nothing much...

might I suggest that in the UK and maybe elsewhere that high profile people who have managed to infect themselves by handshaking and hugging other high profile people, whether actors, racing drivers, politicians or ex-presidents of Royal Colleges would be well placed to roll up their sleeves and...

given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. I don't see any evidence for this, other than some historic studies of very doubtful relevance. It is a bit like saying that if you win a war another one is bound to start up. Science is based on...

I think it may end up being even simpler than that. As De Gaulle liked to say - Non! Or Donald Trump - You're fired.

Where do you get that figure from? The Chinese seem to have nearly achieved clearance in a month. Their continuing problem is international travel.

A bit like Montgomery saying that no guns is 'a case for those soldiers'?

Judging by what we have had the mediate is not true. Several positive cases have claimed to feel fine - on the Diamond Princess, in a ski chalet, a famous film star... That is enough to be a scientific refutation of Vallance's statement.

Nothing to do with the herd immunity stuff. I don't understand how delaying lockdown, generating thousands of suchk people, maintains healthcare capacity. One would assume that lockdown would not apply to healthcare professionals. The schools issue is complicated but if they really thought...

What I find so extraordinary is that it seems that Whitty and Vallance accepted some modelling that clearly had no relation to reality. So Grant Shapps's 'following the science' is more the blind leading the blind.

This really is an extraordinary admission. How come I had worked this out a month ago?

It seems they are admitting they modelled it wrong. But to realise that you would break the ITU system you just need to do some trivial mental arithmetic. You do not need any professional modelling. It is no harder than working out how much rice you need if you have six people to dinner. It was...

"The aim now is not to slow the rate of growth of cases, but put the epidemic in reverse. Hopefully there will be tens of thousands of deaths. Maybe just a few thousand." Not clear who Tom Whipple is quoting here but it makes sense to me. The strength of health systems does not matter. The...

But as I have been trying to point out there is no Goldilocks position, unless you want to be socially distancing for ten years, by which time a new generation will have been born to keep the epidemic going! I know quite a lot of the experts in this area and Vallance is not one of them. He is a...