Effectiveness of the 2024–2025 KP.2 COVID-19 vaccines in the United States during long-term follow-up, 2025, Ioannou et al.

Chandelier

Senior Member (Voting Rights)
Effectiveness of the 2024–2025 KP.2 COVID-19 vaccines in the United States during long-term follow-up

Ioannou, George N.; Berry, Kristin; Yan, Lei; Huang, Yuan; Lin, Hung-Mo; Bui, David; Hynes, Denise M.; Boyko, Edward J.; Ferguson, Jacqueline M.; Aslan, Mihaela; Bajema, Kristina L.

Abstract
Up-to-date estimates of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) are needed to inform COVID-19 vaccination strategies and recommendations.
This target trial emulation study aimed to estimate the long-term vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccines targeting the KP.2 Omicron variant within the Veterans Health Administration.

The study population (90.9% male, mean age 70.7 years) included 538,631 pairs of vaccinated (i.e., received the KP.2 COVID-19 vaccine) and matched unvaccinated (i.e., did not receive the KP.2 COVID-19 vaccine) persons enrolled from August 2024 to January 2025.
Over a mean follow-up of 172 days (range 97-232) extending to April 12, 2025, VE was low against laboratory-diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection (16.60%, 95% confidence interval [CI], 11.92-21.44), SARS-CoV-2-associated emergency department/urgent care (ED/UC) visit (21.05%, 95% CI, 14.22-27.21), SARS-CoV-2-associated hospitalization (19.53%, 95% CI 6.56-30.10) and much higher against SARS-CoV-2-associated death (65.53%, 95% CI 27.79-83.37). VE declined from 60 to 90 to 120 days against infection (31.28%, 25.81%, 22.44% respectively), ED/UC visit (34.40%, 29.19%, 25.71% respectively), hospitalization (37.39%, 28.98%, 22.52% respectively) and death (75.02%, 71.02%, 63.08% respectively).

In conclusion, COVID-19 vaccines targeting the KP.2 variant used in the 2024-2025 season offered high protection against death and modest protection against infection, ED/UC visits or hospitalization, and VE declined over time.

Web | DOI | Nature Communications
 
VE declined from 60 to 90 to 120 days against infection (31.28%, 25.81%, 22.44% respectively), ED/UC visit (34.40%, 29.19%, 25.71% respectively), hospitalization (37.39%, 28.98%, 22.52% respectively) and death (75.02%, 71.02%, 63.08% respectively).
The rapid decline in VE is concerning. It means that it’s not possible to maintain sufficient VE without at least annual vaccination. And it can even be questioned if the protection is sufficient, which would put other protective measures like masking high on the list of priorities.
 
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