Point Prevalence Estimates of Activity-Limiting Long-Term Symptoms among U.S. Adults ≥1 Month After Reported SARS-CoV-2 Infection, 2022, Tenforde

Abstract

Background
Although most adults infected with SARS-CoV-2 fully recover, a proportion have ongoing symptoms, or post-COVID conditions (PCC), after infection. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the number of US adults with activity-limiting PCC on November 1, 2021.

Methods
We modeled the prevalence of PCC using reported infections occurring from February 1, 2020 – September 30, 2021, and population-based, household survey data on new activity-limiting symptoms ≥1 month following SARS-CoV-2 infection. From these data sources, we estimated the number and proportion of US adults with activity-limiting PCC on November 1, 2021, as 95% uncertainty intervals, stratified by sex and age. Sensitivity analyses adjusted for under-ascertainment of infections and uncertainty about symptom duration.

Results
On November 1, 2021, at least 3.0–5.0 million US adults were estimated to have activity-limiting PCC of ≥1 month duration, or 1.2%–1.9% of US adults. Population prevalence was higher in females (1.4%–2.2%) than males. The estimated prevalence after adjusting for under-ascertainment of infections was 1.7%–3.8%.

Conclusion
Millions of US adults were estimated to have activity-limiting PCC. These estimates can support future efforts to address the impact of PCC on the U.S. population.

Open access, https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiac281/6625825

 

Yes, this is more in like with what I expect - not figures of 30%+

 

This is pretty funny as an academic paper. They multiplied the number of estimated number of US cases of Covid by the ONS Long Covid survey estimates (with a few adjustments) and report the results.

I have an alternate method: Let's just say it's probably about the same as the UK, near as we can tell since we don't really know how many people have had Covid in the US, so about 2.5%.