Risk Factors Associated with Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 in an EHR Cohort:..., 2022, Hill et al

Preprint.

Full title: Risk Factors Associated with Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 in an EHR Cohort: A National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) Analysis as part of the NIH RECOVER program

ABSTRACT

Background
More than one-third of individuals experience post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC, which includes long-COVID).

Objective
To identify risk factors associated with PASC/long-COVID.

Design
Retrospective case-control study.

Setting
31 health systems in the United States from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C).

Patients
8,325 individuals with PASC (defined by the presence of the International Classification of Diseases, version 10 code U09.9 or a long-COVID clinic visit) matched to 41,625 controls within the same health system.

Measurements
Risk factors included demographics, comorbidities, and treatment and acute characteristics related to COVID-19. Multivariable logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost were used to determine the associations between risk factors and PASC.

Results
Among 8,325 individuals with PASC, the majority were >50 years of age (56.6%), female (62.8%), and non-Hispanic White (68.6%). In logistic regression, middle-age categories (40 to 69 years; OR ranging from 2.32 to 2.58), female sex (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.33-1.48), hospitalization associated with COVID-19 (OR 3.8, 95% CI 3.05-4.73), long (8-30 days, OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.31-2.17) or extended hospital stay (30+ days, OR 3.38, 95% CI 2.45-4.67), receipt of mechanical ventilation (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.18-1.74), and several comorbidities including depression (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.40-1.60), chronic lung disease (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.53-1.74), and obesity (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.16-1.3) were associated with increased likelihood of PASC diagnosis or care at a long-COVID clinic. Characteristics associated with a lower likelihood of PASC diagnosis or care at a long-COVID clinic included younger age (18 to 29 years), male sex, non-Hispanic Black race, and comorbidities such as substance abuse, cardiomyopathy, psychosis, and dementia. More doctors per capita in the county of residence was associated with an increased likelihood of PASC diagnosis or care at a long-COVID clinic. Our findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using a variety of analytic techniques and approaches to select controls.

Conclusions
This national study identified important risk factors for PASC such as middle age, severe COVID-19 disease, and specific comorbidities. Further clinical and epidemiological research is needed to better understand underlying mechanisms and the potential role of vaccines and therapeutics in altering PASC course.

Question
What risk factors are associated with post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC) in the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) EHR Cohort?

Findings
This national study identified important risk factors for PASC such as middle age, severe COVID-19 disease, specific comorbidities, and the number of physicians per capita.

Meaning
Clinicians can use these risk factors to identify patients at high risk for PASC while they are still in the acute phase of their infection and also to support targeted enrollment in clinical trials for preventing or treating PASC.

Open access, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.08.15.22278603v1

 

There's nothing shocking in here. Risk factors include being middle-age, female sex, and certain chronic conditions. People with less access to healthcare are less likely to receive diagnosis or treatment. But there's no BPS material in here. I heard the leaders of RECOVER have no BPS misconceptions whatsoever and it matches up with this paper. While the results are unsurprising, we need rigorous, basic research like this before we go into more detail. They do mentions areas for further research:

• How much do social determinants of health affect your risk of long Covid?
• How much do vaccines and antivirals help?
• What is the effect of reinfection with Covid?

There's some research on these questions, but maybe the NIH will come out with something. Is this the first preprint we've seen from RECOVER?