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I would have thought that it isn't as simple as a 14 day peak with lock down as if one person in a family (locked down together) has it then it is likely to spread to others in the family. So I would have thought there could be increases as lockdown happens beyond the detection of those that...

I think there is a more fundimental issue in how they are using the modelling. They should be running over a number of permutations so that they know when the model is reliable in its prediction and where the model is sensitive to the assumed parameters. I've not heard anyone talking about doing...

My impression is that they will carefully choose who is on the advisory group so they get people who will agree. I also suspect Cochrane are a group that talk about patient involvement view this as patient support and don't realize that patients have the ability to reason and understand science.

And advisors tell them that they think they want to hear.

I wonder if they were simply listening to the wrong people. We've seen how many senior people in health in this country don't seem capable of coherent thinking and will go out of their way to cover for other academics. Perhaps we are suffering from the effect of 'experts' who don't have a clue.

On newsnight they are saying one of the advisory panel (Neil Ferguson from imperial) had done some modelling and was predicting >250000 deaths so the government had to listen and change direction.

Is there a risk of picking up the virus from touching surfaces. For example, lift buttons, hand rails etc. I was assuming this was the bigger risk when going to places with people.

Sometimes I wonder if there is a problem with peoples understanding when they say that they are following 'science'. It suggests that they think science has a single correct answer rather than being a methodology. The problem here is there are a lot of uncertainties. People can build models and...

This is something I've been wondering about. Is it that if someone comes into a lot of the virus (high dose) then it starts having an effect sooner and the body doesn't have the chance to start any reaction?

The problem comes if everyone is trying to shop when no one is shopping and going at quiet times. Then perhaps peak times will be quiet.

With any modelling task you can include a mix of strategies (sometimes they can interact in strange ways). But I think the visualizations help bring what people are talking about to life. What I assume they do in real models is run the models many times to look at how the results range...

This looks like an interesting article visualizing spread patterns etc https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

I was wondering if people are self iscolating and avoiding shops (basically living off food that lasts well) then perhaps supplements may be worthwhile due to a limited diet?

The British Immunology Society issues this statement a couple of days ago around herd immunity https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-response-herd-immunity-and-sars-cov-2 One issue that people seem to keep comming back to is whether immunity remains.

I think Nina has done some type of survey of what is talked and asked for materials but didn't get much back from that. If I remember correctly she talks about this in her CMRC talk.

We've now been told to work at home if possible and not to come into the office for 14 days if we have traveled to a different 'metropolitan district'. Also no visits to offices.

I also get the impression the science is very uncertain and can be contradictory. It could reflect different subgroups as well.

There is a virology blog on vacine creation http://www.virology.ws/2020/03/11/sars-cov-2-the-vaccine-landscape/

I would suspect that and also they would tend to meet people outside of their normal circle of contacts. I think its interesting that the company I work for stopped international travel a few weeks ago. I am wondering if companies are taking the threats more seriously than governments.

What I heared this evening on the radio about canceling events was someone saying that spread within open air events such as sport events won't be that bad but spread in doors would be. They talked about doing things like cancelling football matches (or just having them on TV) and they raised...