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  1. Adrian

    Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

    Considering privacy is important because it can help with compliance and gaining access to information. The phone app would work better using the privacy preserving protocols that have been defined (although that is a choice that apple and google have made). Even with a human based contract...
  2. Adrian

    Paul Garner on Long Covid and ME/CFS - BMJ articles and other media.

    Wouldn't a test that looks at the viral load help determine if people still have the virus and hence whether these are symptoms of cov19 or a post viral thing. I think there is some testing of people leaving hospital but I don't know how that fits with reports of PVFS.
  3. Adrian

    Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

    I hope when they talk of track and trace they mean track trace and isolate. But if that is isolate in your house then there is the question as to whether the whole family need to be isolated or further contract tracking happens with family contacts. I'm assuming contract tracking needs to be...
  4. Adrian

    Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

    I would say alert level = f(R, Number_of_cases) But then the question is what exactly is the function and this leads to questions over detail which probably haven't been thought out. My guess is that is will be someone (or a committee of people) looking at an estimate of the value of R (and...
  5. Adrian

    Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

    So we have an alert level of R + number of cases. Given R is small and the number of cases is quite large (even at a few thousand) then the contribution of R is minimal and the alert level = number of cases. But the alert level is between 1 and 5 so …
  6. Adrian

    Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

    As politicians talk about relaxing lock down and how that relates to R0 it strikes me as R0 is not a useful concept but is rather confused because it is both a function of the natural spread rate of the virus along with the effect of all the mitigations. That can lead to confused thinking or...
  7. Adrian

    Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

    This looks like an interesting story about members of a choir in the UK who all came down with Covid-19 like symptoms late December and January. There is also an association with Wuhan as someone came back from a business trip with a cough. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449
  8. Adrian

    Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

    The quality of the code does worry me. Refactoring the code will add bugs but the fact he won't release the original suggests that it isn't well written and so could have bugs. The important thing is what steps he took to verify the code runs the model as expected and this can include...
  9. Adrian

    Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

    There is a paper describing patients who have been hospitalized in the UK with Cov-19 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.20076042v1.full.pdf
  10. Adrian

    The biology of coronavirus COVID-19 - including research and treatments

    There is a good talk here from Susan Weiss on Corona Viruses
  11. Adrian

    Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

    A blog from Vincent Racaniello that is very critical of how we were unprepared for this Covid outbreak despite the warnings from Sars. Basically saying we should have been developing antivirals against CoV s https://www.virology.ws/2020/04/30/the-sars-cov-2-pandemic-could-have-been-prevented/
  12. Adrian

    Lightning Process study in Norway - Given Ethics Approval February 2022

    I wonder if they really claim this is a cure then they could use a measure of patients getting back to a normal life (able to work full time and do social activities). A protocol which just counted the number of patients who after a year were back to a normal life vs a observation group to see...
  13. Adrian

    Lightning Process study in Norway - Given Ethics Approval February 2022

    A wait list is not a suitable control group. It is not controlling for any reporting (placobo) biases and effects from the treatment (telling patients to ignore symptoms). All it does is compare reporting from those told to wait for treatment (who may also have an incentive to downplay any...
  14. Adrian

    Lightning Process study in Norway - Given Ethics Approval February 2022

    Another concern in any protocol is ensuring patients report harmful effects from the LP. But LP seems to be set up to discourage harms reporting so I think this should be a real issue within any trial.
  15. Adrian

    Lightning Process study in Norway - Given Ethics Approval February 2022

    Its not even replication. The protocol can't be properly peer reviewed without a detailed description of the intervention otherwise the reviewers can't tell if any controls are sufficient.
  16. Adrian

    Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

    I was wondering how they are estimating any values for R0 given the time lags in a lot of the data quoted. Which makes me wonder about their optimism. If data quality is poor then they could be misleading themselves. Lots of the graphs do seem to show a peak has been reached but the way down...
  17. Adrian

    Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

    Given these stories this could be an interesting analysis but the story is behind a paywall so not sure what it is saying
  18. Adrian

    The biology of coronavirus COVID-19 - including research and treatments

    Its interesting on TWiV Stanley Perlman suggested that the bad covid-19 response in the lungs may be due to a host response to the virus rather than the virus itself. That was a while ago and he didn't quote any evidence as far as I can remember. Also it seems that the viral load in children is...
  19. Adrian

    Countess of Mar retires

    It sounds like the Countess of Mar is retiring. She will clearly be a loss as she had been one of the main campaigners for ME in parliament over the last few years. Fortunately there are others supporting the cause now.
  20. Adrian

    Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

    Could be the nudge unit nudging responsibility away from themselves.
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