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That also suggests that any reported infection figures are very sensitive to sampling strategies (as well as the accuracy of tests). I was thinking that they may be over counting because it would be harder to reach those who are doing the most to self isolate. But without a paper setting out the...

This is an interesting article as to Mongolia who acted early and have had no cases of transmission (although they have imported cases). They basically acted in January to prepare.

Why not add that as a comment on the current review as I assume they still need to comment on these whilst a new process is in place. I don't think it is a point they have commented on before and it would be interesting to see what they say when confronted with a comment that one of the...

There is slightly more here https://www.royalholloway.ac.uk/media/13333/lss-scholarhsip-phd.pdf

This is something I've wondered about. I think one of the things with microfluidic devices is that they can use very small amounts of a sample e.g. small droplets so that could have a difference. Also there could be something around the accuracy of impedance measurements - I don't know about...

I thought this was quite an interesting article around the evidence about whether it is safe to reopen schools. Unlike a lot of press coverage it does talk about the limited but various pieces of research looking at children mentioning population studies including children such as one in Vo...

@sTeamTraen has published an interesting blog about some of the failures of a modelling paper https://steamtraen.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-perils-of-improvising-with-linear.html With reference to the paper Stedman, M., Davies, M., Lunt, M., Verma, A., Anderson, S. G., & Heald, A. H. (in press)...

It is about the spread dynamics. How people live and therefore the way they contact others will be a key component in how spread happens. If there are common households with people who are expected to go out and act normally and people who are vulnerable then this clearly is an issue and a...

Considering privacy is important because it can help with compliance and gaining access to information. The phone app would work better using the privacy preserving protocols that have been defined (although that is a choice that apple and google have made). Even with a human based contract...

Wouldn't a test that looks at the viral load help determine if people still have the virus and hence whether these are symptoms of cov19 or a post viral thing. I think there is some testing of people leaving hospital but I don't know how that fits with reports of PVFS.

I hope when they talk of track and trace they mean track trace and isolate. But if that is isolate in your house then there is the question as to whether the whole family need to be isolated or further contract tracking happens with family contacts. I'm assuming contract tracking needs to be...

I would say alert level = f(R, Number_of_cases) But then the question is what exactly is the function and this leads to questions over detail which probably haven't been thought out. My guess is that is will be someone (or a committee of people) looking at an estimate of the value of R (and...

So we have an alert level of R + number of cases. Given R is small and the number of cases is quite large (even at a few thousand) then the contribution of R is minimal and the alert level = number of cases. But the alert level is between 1 and 5 so …

As politicians talk about relaxing lock down and how that relates to R0 it strikes me as R0 is not a useful concept but is rather confused because it is both a function of the natural spread rate of the virus along with the effect of all the mitigations. That can lead to confused thinking or...

This looks like an interesting story about members of a choir in the UK who all came down with Covid-19 like symptoms late December and January. There is also an association with Wuhan as someone came back from a business trip with a cough. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449

The quality of the code does worry me. Refactoring the code will add bugs but the fact he won't release the original suggests that it isn't well written and so could have bugs. The important thing is what steps he took to verify the code runs the model as expected and this can include...

There is a paper describing patients who have been hospitalized in the UK with Cov-19 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.20076042v1.full.pdf

There is a good talk here from Susan Weiss on Corona Viruses

A blog from Vincent Racaniello that is very critical of how we were unprepared for this Covid outbreak despite the warnings from Sars. Basically saying we should have been developing antivirals against CoV s https://www.virology.ws/2020/04/30/the-sars-cov-2-pandemic-could-have-been-prevented/

I wonder if they really claim this is a cure then they could use a measure of patients getting back to a normal life (able to work full time and do social activities). A protocol which just counted the number of patients who after a year were back to a normal life vs a observation group to see...