Analyses of the economic costs and impacts of chronic illnesses like ME/CFS and Long Covid

Although now some years ago there was some data suggesting that people treated by the UK ME specialist services went on to work less and to claim more benefits.

 

Let me guess the next move... "psychologically-led rehabilitation can lead to people being able to work more than they think, but it can't make them accept that they can".

Doesn't matter that it's literally all about the latter. By their own admission. In their own definitions. The quacks pushing this pseudoscience have an infinite number of cheap excuses they can throw at it and the systems that want this to be true don't care that it's not, they like the imaginary numbers promising them that it works and if reality disagrees then it's reality that is wrong.

 

"The economic burden of long COVID in Australia: more noise than signal?" (Med J Aust 2024; 221(9):S31-S39):

Link | PDF

 

Last year, Health Canada published an estimate of the cost of Long Covid and put it at between $8B and $50B up to 2023, so for the first 2-3 years, making it an absolute minimum of $1-2B per year, and likely a gross underestimate, and up to $15B/year.

https://www.s4me.info/threads/healt...s-of-post-covid-19-condition-in-canada.41323/

 

The relationship between long COVID, labor productivity, and socioeconomic losses in Japan: A cohort study (2025)
Konishi; Masaki; Shimamoto; Ibuka; Goto; Namkoong; Chubachi; Terai; Asakura; Miyata; Azekawa; Nakagawara; Tanaka; Morita; Harada; Sasano; Nakamura; Kusaka; Ohba; Nakano; Fukunaga

OBJECTIVES
We examined shifts in labor productivity and their economic ramifications among adult patients with long COVID in Japan.

METHODS
A total of 396 patients were categorized into three groups based on symptom progression: non-long COVID, long COVID recovered, and long COVID persistent. Patient-reported outcomes were assessed at three time intervals: 3, 6, and 12 months after COVID-19 diagnosis. Labor productivity was gauged through presenteeism and absenteeism, measured using the World Health Organization Health and Work Performance Questionnaire.

RESULTS
Long COVID was observed in 52.7% of patients, and 29.3% of all the patients continued to experience long COVID symptoms 1 year after diagnosis. At all three time points (3, 6, and 12 months after diagnosis), the long COVID persistent group showed a statistically significant difference in absolute presenteeism compared with the non-long COVID and long COVID recovered groups (P <0.01). Economic loss owing to decrease in labor productivity was calculated as $21,659 per year in the long COVID persistent group and $9008 per year in the long COVID recovered group (P <0.01).

CONCLUSIONS
The study’s results revealed a notable decline in labor productivity over time, underscoring the importance of early detection and intervention to mitigate the socio-economic repercussions of long COVID, in addition to its health implications.

Link (IJID Regions) | Thread

Spoiler: Concluding

In total, 29.3% of the patient cohort continued to experience long COVID symptoms 1 year after COVID-19 diagnosis. At 3, 6, and 12 months after diagnosis, patients with long COVID that persisted for 1 year were more prevalent than those with early resolution of long COVID or those without long COVID. Presenteeism, a key labor productivity indicator, exhibited a significant decrease in these patients, suggesting an association between reduced work productivity and long COVID that persisted for 1 year. For these patients, the annual economic loss attributed to diminished labor productivity amounted to $21,659. As the duration of COVID-19 persistence increased, the associated economic losses grew significantly higher. A substantial proportion of patients experiencing long COVID symptoms, such as fatigue, impaired cognitive function, and sleep disturbances, demonstrated a marked decline in presenteeism.

 

Is there a recent / recent (ish) summary / cost from a UK perspective? Focused on ME/CFS and perhaps including Long Covid too. What would be hopefully the most authoritative source of information.

 

Productivity Losses due to Health Problems Arising from COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review of Population-Level Studies Worldwide (2025)
Niewiadomski, Paweł; Ortega-Ortega, Marta; Łyszczarz, Błażej

AIM
To systematically review the evidence on productivity losses due to health problems arising from the COVID-19 pandemic based on evidence from population-level studies.

METHODS
Following PRISMA statement, we conducted a systematic review using Medline, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, EconLit, WHO COVID-19 Research and EuropePMC databases and a grey literature search. We included population-level studies using secondary data and qualitatively assessed eligible studies. For a quantitative cross-study comparison, we calculated losses in 2020 international dollars and as a share of gross domestic product. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42023478059.

RESULTS
Thirty-eight studies were eligible for review, most of which reported losses in high-income countries and the European region. COVID-19 was a focus of 33 studies while 3 studies investigated losses from both long COVID and excess mortality. The Human Capital Approach dominated (30 studies) and no study used the Friction Cost Approach. Most studies (84%) reported on premature mortality losses and a quarter provided estimates of losses due to absenteeism. Of the 33 studies eligible for quantitative comparison, we found that the productivity losses ranged from 0 to 2.1% of gross domestic product; the greatest losses were in the high-income countries and for those aged 40–59 years; and losses among men contributed to around 3/4 of the total burden.

CONCLUSION
The available evidence on the topic is limited, particularly considering the methodological approaches used. Thus, more research is needed to reach a more comprehensive understanding of economy-level productivity losses resulting from the recent COVID-19 pandemic.

Link | PDF (Applied Health Economics and Health Policy)

 

The Current and Future Burden of Long COVID in the United States (U.S.)
Background
Long COVID, which affects an estimated 44.69-48.04 million people in the U.S., is an ongoing public health concern that will continue to grow as SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread.

Methods
We developed a computational simulation model representing the clinical course, the health effects, and the associated costs of a person with Long COVID.

Results
Simulations show that the average total cost of a Long COVID case can range from $5,084-$11,646 (assuming symptoms only last 1 year) with 92.5%-95.2% of these costs being productivity losses. Therefore, the current number of Long COVID cases could end up costing society at least $2.01-$6.56 billion, employers at least $1.99-$6.49 billion in productivity losses, and third-party payers $21-68.5 million annually (6%-20% probability of developing Long COVID). These cases would accrue 35,808-121,259 QALYs lost and 13,484-45,468 DALYs. Moreover, each year, there may be an additional $698.5 million in total costs, 14,685 QALYs lost, and 5,628 DALYs, if the incidence of COVID is 100 per 10,000 persons (similar to that seen in 2023). Every 10-point increase in COVID incidence results in an additional $365 million in total costs, 5,070 QALYs lost, and 1,900 DALYs each year.

Conclusion
The current health and economic burden of Long COVID may already exceed that of a number of other chronic disease and will continue to grow each year as there are more and more COVID-19 cases. This could be a significant drain on businesses, third party payers, the healthcare system, and all of society.

https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaf030/7972782