Chandelier
Senior Member (Voting Rights)
Swiss Re, the world’s largest reinsurer, is cautioning insurance companies that it continues to observe a persistent trend of excess deaths following COVID-19.
The PDF report can be downloaded from the website via direct link once a name and a properly formatted email address (e.g. a@b.com) has been provided.
AI Summary:
The future of excess mortality after COVID-19
Introduction
Four years after the outbreak, many countries still experience elevated deaths that persist regardless of healthcare quality or population health. Reporting differences and possible under-reporting add complexity to comparisons and measurement.
Definition and Measurement
Excess mortality describes deaths above an expected baseline. Estimating this baseline varies significantly by method, creating uncertainty. Since 2020, unusually high mortality levels have made quantification especially challenging.
Implications for Insurance
Persisting excess mortality poses a potential challenge for Life and Health insurance. Elevated deaths could affect future claims, reserves, portfolio performance and pricing, depending on how general trends appear in insured populations.
Forecasts for the US and UK
Swiss Re Institute projects that excess mortality may continue for up to a decade. General population forecasts suggest gradual decline by 2033 to 0–3% in the US and 0–2.5% in the UK, down from 2023 estimates of 3–7% and 5–8% respectively. Optimistic scenarios show a return to pre-pandemic levels by 2028, while pessimistic scenarios extend elevated levels to 2033.
Cross-Country Patterns
A standardised methodology highlights differing national trajectories, shaped by timing and effectiveness of preventive measures.
Causes and Future Drivers
Respiratory mortality has dominated since 2020, but inconsistencies and misclassification appear. Rising CVD and other causes also contribute. COVID-19 remains a key driver, with lifestyle-related risks potentially compounding future excess mortality.