Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

I don´t think that this is true.

I think 10% of old people needed care (only 10%), and 4% ICU. Numbers from two weeks ago, or so and if I remembe rrightly.

Than still the additional question about underdetermination, so the percentage might be lower or much lower. (And then again, the question about the unusual mild season for acute respiratory diseases this year before corona.)

Probably the prince shows no special signs of blue blood.

 

I think there I one thing we can be confident of, that David Hockney's analysis of the current situation is right.

'Only food and love matter, in that order.'

 

You can handle that reasonably well by assuming primary contacts are infected whether or not they have symptoms and get them isolated immediately. Control of TB by contact tracing is done with the vast majority of people infected asymptomatic at the time of tracing. Moreover, the tests are not that great and in the past were even worse. People have been doing things this way for a century. The time parameter are different for TB but the principle is the same.

 

The real problem comes when you have open schools and football matches - where you may have a thousand contacts. At my daughter's school everyone had to be tested and something around 50 infected cases were found stemming from one original case. So it is still doable for schools. For international football matches I don't know. God knows why the experts said they were not the problem.

 

Yes, well ... we know all about that don't we!

 

Presumably the choice of experts.

 

This may sound inappropriate but is the total number of ICU beds in Italy 4000? The reason I'm asking is that if the total number is 4000 - then that would explain the peak at 4000.

There aren't many ICU beds in the UK so saturation point (100% occupancy) would occur quickly.

I live in the UK!

 

this is crazy
Up to 4,000 inmates to be temporarily released in England and Wales
https://www.theguardian.com/society...-be-temporarily-released-in-england-and-wales

they are releasing them if they aren't showing symptoms without testing them.

Then on the other hand people are being prosecuted and given jail sentences for breaking the CV lock-down regs.

 

According to Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health, the country’s mortality rate is far higher due to demographics - the nation has the second oldest population worldwide - and the manner in which hospitals record deaths

But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.

“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...se/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

 

But if the prisons really aren't able to take actions that will limit the spread of the virus, keeping people in prisons for more minor problems could make it even more difficult for prison staff (many of whom are self-isolating) to manage the situation, and lead to a punishment that far outweighs their crimes.

I don't know the details, but it could be that this is the best thing to do.

 

I mean remembering that it was 5.000 (for 60.000.000 people), might be wrong.

In comparision Germany had regularly 20.000 or 24.000 (for 80.000.000 people), can´t remember exactly.

Sweden has 523 (for 10.000.000 people), as I heard on radio.

 

They have released over 1000 prisoners in this province, low risk and near the end of their sentences.

 

I notice that those convicted of violent/sex offences will be ineligible but that means that plenty of people convicted of eg burglary/theft will be let out early - repeated burgraly will land you 5yrs inside, theft 7.

I'm not sure whether this is the right thing to do or not, because I don't have all the information, it may be the least bad option all things considered, but I certainly don't relish people in prison from my neighbourhood being let out early, simply because I am very nervous of the social unrest & if we start getting shortages etc. People who are prepared to break in/steal to get what they want will continue to do so.

 

It looks like the pressure from scientists and others is getting through. With the UK, rather than doing the things they need to do from the start, they need to be pushed and pushed into doing the right thing by others outside the govt/scientific advisers. But at least they’re finally getting there?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52172035

“Also on the BBC's Andrew Marr show, Prof Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said he could not predict when the lockdown would be lifted.

He said there was "no point" in releasing the lockdown "at a point where case numbers are still high and will resurge even faster than we have seen before."

Prof Ferguson added: "We want case numbers to get to a low point where we can start substituting other measures for the most intrusive and economically costly aspects of the current lockdown.

"Almost certainly those additional measures will involve massively ramped-up testing, going back to trying to identify contacts of cases and stopping chains of transmission.

"That can only feasibly be done when we have many fewer cases per day than we have at the moment."”

 

@Jonathan Edwards anyone know if the UK can ship people needing ICU to Germany - if the Germans have capacity of course.