Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

I am not sure that this is a problem if herd immunity is not part of the strategy. I would only expect about 2% of people in Wuhan to have been infected, so have antibodies. They got on top of the epidemic before it spread more widely.

 

I was meaning that I didn't think herd immunity was part of the Chinese strategy. Assuming it is not then the figures aren't worrying, just reflect infection rates.

 

That seems to be more stating the obvious about how a strategy might be framed than actually having a strategy.

The key issue will be how stabilisation and reduction in cases will be judged. In my view new cases prepay should reduce by a tenfold factor at least. China achieved that so it is not in any way unrealistic.

 

Anthony Costello was top of the BBC1 lunchtime news today, saying that the govt had responded too slowly to the pandemic.

 

Finally...

https://theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/uk-to-start-coronavirus-contact-tracing-again

UK to start coronavirus contact tracing again

Matt Hancock says government to rebuild teams amid criticism it stopped strategy too early

“Hancock said on Friday that the government would rebuild the teams of contact tracers as part of a renewed testing and tracing strategy.

His predecessor Jeremy Hunt, who is chair of the health select committee of MPs where Hancock was giving evidence, pointed out that South Korea had up to 1,000 contact tracers. “Public Health England had 290 people doing this at their peak, but they now say it has been wound down. Are we going to build it up again?” he asked.

Hancock said yes and that contact tracing teams would be part of a strategy that included the use of a phone app to identify recent contacts and warn them that they might need to self-isolate.

“That brings together teams from NHSX, who are leading on the app, with a huge array of partners that are working within that, [and] from Public Health England, who are the experts on what we refer to as external contact tracing,” he told the committee.

“The app is itself a contact tracing app, that is the point of it, to be able to assist individuals to do contact tracing themselves by notifying people who they have been in close contact with when they have downloaded the app. And then of course link that to testing, so people can get the tests.””

However as yet still no mention of when community testing will happen, which is still really important..hopefully that’s coming soon too..

Also a bit worried they seem to be relying a lot on this app; with more emphasis on that rather than people doing contact tracing. We’ve discussed some of the pitfalls which using apps before. Presumably we will also need a lot more than 290 contact tracers now.. and more spread throughout the country, but at least they’re finally saying they are going to bring them back!

 

“The Chinese city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus originated last year, has raised its official Covid-19 death toll by 50%, adding 1,290 fatalities.

Wuhan officials attributed the new figure to updated reporting and deaths outside hospitals. China has insisted there was no cover-up.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52321529

 

I though had thought that because there is no experiment under tight conditions possible that we instead had to use other sources (and came to the conclusion this can only be statistics and forensics).

Whereas I agree that the disease must be paid unusual attention to, I cannot not agree to let go any other knowledge on the situation. If you don´t keep logical thinking you can finally claim whatever you want, or whatever just comes up in your mind.

 

Yea as @Jonathan Edwards has been pointing out, imagine what herd immunity (via infection) would look like --- 2% down "only" another approx. 70% to go! Not sure but the plague, or the spanish flue, are probably comparable to 70%+ of the population being infected with corona virus.

 

The IHME projections have been updated once again.

On Monday (4/13) the US total projected COVID-19 deaths rose to 68,841 (it had been 60,415 five days earlier). Today, 4/17, it has been revised back downward to 60,308 (range of 34k -140k).
Way back on 4/6 (way back 11 days ago, that is) the projection was 81,966.

The model's current number of projected deaths in the UK is 37,521 (range of 17k-89k).

 

I think their higher figure may be most accurate in terms of predictions for the UK deaths. This is assuming they are looking at total UK deaths, as under Total deaths it says: All deaths specific to COVID-19 patients. This would include care homes and community deaths. This is in tomorrow’s Telegraph: Care England estimate 7,500 have died in care homes, which is far higher than any statistics released by the govt.(Zoom in to read article):

https://twitter.com/user/status/1251258787421454336


And Anthony Costello thinks community deaths are an extra 50% onto the deaths:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1250830923005911042


Add that 7,500 from Care England estimates onto our current total and we are already over 21,000 deaths. Then what about community deaths?

The model is saying total 16,208 total deaths by tomorrow (with a wide range still: 14,065 - 22,123). So for total deaths it looks like their highest estimate 22,123, may be the most accurate one for tomorrow if we take into account what Care England & Anthony Costello are saying. And their higher estimate for total deaths is so high (89k) I hope today may have been a wake up call for the govt. I noticed today Anthony Costello was on the news a lot.

 

Not sure whether this adds anything new?

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coron...as-germany/ar-BB12NGpd?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ASUDHP

 

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/17/who-issues-warning-on-coronavirus-testing-theres-no-evidence-antibody-tests-show-immunity.html

WHO warning: No evidence that antibody tests can show coronavirus immunity

The World Health Organization issued a warning Friday about coronavirus testing, saying there's no evidence serological tests can show whether a person has immunity or is no longer at risk of becoming reinfected.

"These antibody tests will be able to measure that level of serology presence, that level of antibodies, but that does not mean that somebody with antibodies" is immune, said Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO's emerging diseases and zoonosis unit.

Kerkhove said WHO officials discovered many countries suggesting these tests would be able to "capture what they think will be a measure of immunity."

"What the use of these tests will do will measure the level of antibodies. It's a response that the body has a week or two later after they've been infected with this virus," she said at a news conference at WHO's Geneva headquarters. "Right now, we have no evidence that the use of a serological test can show that an individual is immune or protected from reinfection."

 

This article discusses the under-reporting/recording of coronavirus deaths in care homes and the community:

https://www.ft.com/content/9d6b46e2-55f4-4de1-ba21-f1ab9f14bcbf

(requires you to answer a survey question to access it)

 

https://www.channel4.com/news/bodie...ayaquil-as-ecuador-struggles-with-coronavirus