Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

BBC report on Boris Johnson's statement:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52439348

 

Yes, things are going to change a lot about this story as we get more and better science.

 

Which basically says that the establishment is doing exactly the right thing as usual and in such a way that absolutely nobody can be held responsible for anything because it is someone else's fault if anything goes wrong.
To come out with comments like this when your team is bottom of the league is just silly.

 

"I’m absolutely confident it’s acting effectively to provide the science advice the government needs" --- at least it makes me laugh -- not sure why though! Part of @rvallee tag line "award winning" comes to mind, sure he's got a few more choice observations i.e. which accurately sum this nonsense up!

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1254302390288674817

 

Can you justify this statement?

Looking at the Wordometer website, the UK in terms of deaths per million population (which is the only semi-sensible comparison at this stage) ranks below Belgium, Spain, Italy and France and not too far above the Netherlands.

 

Glad to hear UK considering quarantine for arrivals from abroad, 14 days.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...entering-uk-considered-by-government-11979070

However they’re not going to do it straightaway as according to the article it won’t make much difference now.
But that argument makes no sense.

Also, B&Qs and Homebases have been opening around the country and now I hear Greggs is opening. Why? If they are easing the lockdown why not be honest and say the lockdown is easing? All the messaging from the govt is that we are not easing lockdown yet there clearly is.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-52445696?

“A Greggs spokeswoman said: "We want to play our part in getting the nation back up and running again, so we are planning to conduct a limited trial with volunteers to explore how we can reopen our shops with new measures in place that keep our colleagues and customers as safe as we can when we reopen at scale."”

Edit: for people outside the UK or who don’t have Greggs, all the Greggs outlets I’ve ever been in have been tiny and packed with people.

 

Well that is the bottom of the league isn't it?
And having started in a good position the UK sat on its hands until it sank to the level of those who had less warning like Italy. Most of those other countries are now seeing major reductions in death rates. The UK hasn't yet, despite the same opportunity to get things under control.
If our death rate per million is a hundred times greater than the country where things started I think bottom of the league is pretty reasonable at least as a metaphor.

 

How effective is the lockdown?

R0 estimated for Germany:

3. 23. - Lockdown
3. 16. - Schools closed and some other measures
3. 09. - Large gatherings forbidden. (R0 went down even before this should have been able to succeed)

 

More on the contact tracing app in U.K. from what I understand apple + google want a more decentralised system whereas the NHS wants a more centralised version.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/technology-52441428

NHS rejects Apple-Google coronavirus app plan

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/27/gaps-sage-scientific-body-scientists-medical

The government's secret science group has a shocking lack of expertise
Anthony Costello

“The makeup of Sage reflects an oddly skewed and overwhelmingly medical view of science. Indeed, there are many other perspectives that could bring value to a pandemic crisis team. Did Sage consult public health epidemiologists at the frontline of the response to coronavirus in China or Hong Kong, such as Prof Gabriel Leung? Did the group get input from infectious experts at the World Health Organization, such as the epidemiologist Mike Ryan, who leads the team responsible for containing of Covid-19 across the world?

The group includes no molecular virologists who could explain detailed pathogenic differences between Covid-19 and influenza, not one intensive care expert or nursing leader, and no immunologist to examine whether this virus produces lasting and protective immunity. There are no social scientists who could work on community engagement, nor a logistician, who would have expertise in planning for the delivery of supplies and resources during a pandemic. A balanced scientific advisory group would at the minimum include experts working at the frontline of the pandemic, such as those in public health, primary care and intensive care.“

 

Remember a while back when I mentioned the key factor in China that led to 'exponential' spread was large gatherings? Guess what other places have large gatherings? Major international airports.

Quarantine of travellers and restricting large gatherings were the key factors that limited spread before lockdown/similar was applied in Australia/NZ too.

It goes back to what people like Nassim Taleb were saying in January - early response, namely restricting international travel and applying quarantine for all international travellers is far cheaper and more effective. A similar argument could be made for requiring all airline passengers and staff to wear certified masks in airports and on planes. This in itself will likely lead to a substantial reduction in Influenza deaths worldwide.

 

from the following interview with Swedish professor Johan Giesicke

• Swedens policy is quite similar to the original one in the UK.
• the goal for the Swedish is to protect vulnerable people, herd immunity is a byproduct.
• Icus´s have been tripled.
• number of death will decrease b/c of immunity and frail ones having died
• differences between countries will turn out to be small, regardless of measures
• fatality rate is going to turn out much lower than estimated, maybe 0.1%
• 50% of the population will have had it, South Korea is not able to contain it anymore
• measures do more harm than good
• in democracies you can´t people lock up
• vaccine takes too long
• don´t meet too often with your grandparents until you had it
• in Sweden restaurants are controlled on a local level, only few have violated the rules
• it will take a couple of months to come down from measures

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY

 

Our Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was asked this morning on T.V why Australia had managed to get control of the virus without the severer type lockdown that we had to do in New Zealand. She said it was because NZ was slower to lockdown than Australia and that was why Australia managed to get control so well, so quickly, with slightly less restriction than we had to do.

I'll never forget the week before our lockdown in NZ and how scary it felt and became. New cases were starting to double each day. It was becoming very clear that the situation was starting to explode if we didn't take severe action.

 

Professor Giesecke seems to be bad at mathematics.

Note that Sweden has done ~95,000 tests with a positive rate of 20%, compared to Australia (25 million population in Australia compared to 10 million in Sweden) with ~530,000 tests and a positive rate of 1.3%. 2,274 deaths in Sweden vs 84 in Australia.

The only reason new daily cases are "relatively" low in Sweden right now is because many people are being somewhat careful, in spite of government laws.

At 800 new cases per day, it will take over 17 years to achieve 50% infection rate in the population, and thus herd immunity will take decades. So it seems strange to state that a vaccine will "take too long". For 50% of the population to be infected in 2 years, it would require a (flat) infection rate of ~7000 new cases per day.
Even if their current total number of cases is an under estimate, by a large factor, say 5, that would mean they have had 100,000 cases and (4x500)=2000 cases per day, it will still take around 7 years or more until they achieve herd immunity. The reality is this will cause more deaths and more economic damage than trying to eliminate the virus quickly.

I'm afraid anyone who thinks "herd immunity" without a vaccine is an ideal solution is simply mathematically illiterate.