Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

But a threshold is defined as the minimum strength you need to excert the effect. This minimum strength is therefore part of all other strengths that can excert the effect.

Below a threshold there is no effect.

Or there is no threshold at all.



This would mean that "as few as" answers to the expectation that there would be more needed. "No", it says, "you don´t need that much, only a few thousands are sufficient to excert the effect."

And then Bromage elaborates that this can happen in this or that way, at once ore gradually. This might implicate that the most particles fail to enter a cell, and this may go along a theory of children, that they carry basically the same virus load, but neverhteless don´t seem to be that contagious - if so -, and the explanation would rather be that they need more particles to get infected.

This would also mean that the theory of @Keela Too is wrong, a pitty, I think, as it sounds very logical to me. Her theory also has the particular advantage in the current situation that it would go along with the theory and observation of a background immunity from other coronaviruses, which could be one explanation - along other explanations, rather, I would think - of different sceneries seen in Europe (so Italy, Spain, the UK wouldn´t happen to have that much background immunity).

 

Most people probably shouldn't be trying to count viruses for the simple reasons that if you can see 'em you're way too close, and few people have enough fingers.

 

Just looked it up..it looks like they may ditch the original app, according to the guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-be-ditched-for-different-model-after-trials

They’ve said they’re going to roll out the app Mid May to the rest of the population.. it’s mid May now though, so...
not sure what’s happening.

 

How lockdowns been working in the UK

https://twitter.com/user/status/1260489026294997000

 

I agree. I rather suspect virus numbers are a bit like the R value. Mathematically minded people think these numbers are useful for building theories but in reality they are subject to so many undefined variables they turn out to be as useful as a sieve for catching syrup.

 

LOL... wouldn’t be the first time. It is always worth talking ideas through and working out which of the many ideas might fit best with what we know.

However, I did think further on the idea of a doubling time for the virus being important, and so I realised that the first cycles of doubling would happen INSIDE the first infected cell, so the slow increase part of the early replications would be hidden from the immune system. Once that cell bursts and releases it’s load then the situation would surely be as if the body had had a huge inoculation in the first place. So that idea fails.

Much more credible is @Wonko’s idea regarding the probability of any viral particle succeeding in infecting that first host cell. That idea would mean that there is a chance an individual could be infected by an encounter with only 1 viral particle (although the probability might be low), and at the other extreme some individuals could be fortunate and encounter many viral particles yet not become infected (and the probability of that would also be low).

More information is needed, but I imagine these things would be difficult to research experimentally.

 

The following opinion piece on the Guardian website is very much along the lines of what you were saying here @Woolie (you could have written it yourself!). It’s refreshing to see that the article is actually written by a behavioural scientist on the SAGE committee!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/13/british-people-lockdown-coronavirus-crisis

 

This is very true. In general, the more information I have, and the more I know the govt (or whichever official body or person) is being transparent with me, the calmer I am. This is even more true in a pandemic like the one we have.

 

This document appears to now have been unredacted. I believe it was section 3 that was originally redacted if I remember correctly.

ETA: I’ve just seen this explanation on the SAGE website:

 

Indeed.

It might have been useful, and might still be, to know how much food I needed to get in, for a period of at least 12 weeks shielding (from the beginning of March - before it was called 'shielding').

As advice has varied from 'a few days and then get stuff delivered' - which wasn't possible for weeks, and is still 'difficult' - to a few weeks - to....I have no idea what the current advice is, I'm not sure there is any.

All I know is that those who are considered 'extremely vulnerable', and me, can now have a food parcel, for free, meant to last for a week, but which is missing thought, and ingredients, to allow this to be possible - so I still have to compete for slots, and the availability of stuff on shelves, to try and obtain the omissions, when according to the government, and the media, and therefore society at large, I am supposed to be fully sorted.


Of course, officially, there is plenty of food, all the problems were caused by 'panic buying' what....6-7 weeks ago now, in which case how come the orders I do manage to place are arriving with important things like eggs, flour, milk , veg and meat missing? I can seemingly have as much cheap white bread, cereal, biscuits and frozen high sugar desserts as I want tho - plenty of flour and eggs to make them it seems.

Pity I'm not supposed to eat any of them, let alone on a routine basis.

It's been causing a constant state of stress, anxiety and hopefully, needless expense - because I don't have accurate information, I only have blithe reassurances that at every turn turn out to be self serving lies.

What should have been a nice restful couple of months has been a period of constant stress and anxiety caused by trying to source and pay for things that if the information given by the government, and the supermarkets, was correct wouldn't have been necessary as what I needed, and ordered, would have turned up, as normal, at my door and not left in the street, with no problems.

So giving people accurate, and timely, information is a much better way of doing things, than just blithe reassurances that everything is fine, don't worry, don't make any preparations, just carry on as normal, inside, when every encounter with outside infrastructure says things are not all right, not by a long way.

 

I share SPI-B’s concerns about its advice being censored by the government (before it was later unredacted), but it seems hypocritical for SPI-B to be calling for transparency when it is still hiding the identity of 4 of its members. Unfortunately, the media seems to have dropped its interest in this.

I can think of no legitimate reason for any member of any government Covid advisory group to remain anonymous.

 

I've tried to keep up with this thread, but struggle quite often. So apologies if this has been posted already - I just saw it posted by a friend on FB, and thought it was really interesting.

‘Finally, a virus got me.’ Scientist who fought Ebola and HIV reflects on facing death from COVID-19

 

It might have an adverse behavioural effect on the population to know who they are.

 

On C4 tonight 9pm & I’m sure will be on catch up later on - what we can learn from countries that beat the virus. Looks at South Korea.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1260627322174136324


PS Prof Devi Sridhar also on Question Time tomorrow night 10.45pm (will be on iPlayer tomorrow I think).

edited because question time is actually tomorrow, not today.

 

Harrowing program; reminds me of @Jonathan Edwards comments regarding the impact on NHS staff.

File on 4
Coronavirus - stories from behind the mask

Candid diaries of doctors and nurses recorded over two months of the coronavirus pandemic

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j22z

 

Sadly , Twitter video of public transport in return to work this morning
https://twitter.com/user/status/1260465038881685505

 

As should have been expected

 

Saw this and just wanted to weep. This is how I used to get off the bus on peak-hour work days. Saw the tube at Canning Town yesterday as well. In London and infact many places, they cannot expect people to “avoid public transport” when told to go into work. You simply cannot do that.

 

And most not wearing 'face coverings'!