Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

Over the past few weeks, I have repeatedly recalled the Biblical parable of the Wise and Foolish Virgins: on hearing that the bridegroom was delayed, the bridesmaids went to sleep, only half having got their lamps ready beforehand - when he arrived, the other half had to go and buy oil for their lamps, and as a result arrived too late at the wedding feast. No prizes for guessing in which category the UK's coronavirus response falls

 

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/05/1...n-days-enough-to-stop-the-spread-of-covid-19/

Is self-isolation for seven days enough to stop the spread of covid-19?

“Although there is variation in the recommendation across countries, the UK’s is of a considerably shorter duration in comparison. This is additionally of concern due to reports of fluctuation in symptoms. The evidence behind the shorter duration of self-isolation has not been made public. The shorter duration means that individuals may come out of self-isolation while still potentially infectious.

There is evidence that viral shedding can be prolonged, with the duration of viral shedding ranging from 8-37 days in a cohort of hospitalised patients in China. The median duration of viral shedding was 20 days in survivors and varied with disease severity. Another cohort of 56 patients with mild to moderate covid-19 reports viral shedding up to 42 days after onset of symptoms. Although viral shedding does not necessarily equate to infectiousness, we do not yet have clear evidence on how closely the presence of viral RNA relates to infectiousness, or indeed the average infectious period for those infected with covid-19, particularly in those with mild or asymptomatic disease. In the absence of clear evidence, it would seem foolhardy to dismiss the potential for ongoing infection risk, particularly in symptomatic individuals who are not repeatedly tested.”

 

I thought this was 'settled' weeks ago by a statement made by WHO.

That the reason for positive results weeks after people had apparently recovered was down to the body clearing inert pieces of viral RNA from the lungs, big enough pieces of viral RNA to give a positive result on a swab test but not 'live' virus.

Or did I misunderstand, or did they lie?

 

@lunarainbows, your post reminded me of this: Yesterday the Swedish Public Health Authority published new guidelines for when people who have had covid-19 "are no longer infectious".

FHM: Ny vägledning om smittfrihet efter covid-19
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se.../ny-vagledning-om-smittfrihet-efter-covid-19/

The criteria are:

 

https://magazine.columbia.edu/article/how-stop-next-pandemic-it-starts

 

Boris Johnson said in PMQs today that tracing will be ready by 1 June. According to him, there will be 25,000 trackers who will be able to cope with 10,000 cases. But the tracing app won’t be ready. Serco still doing tracing.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ohnson-keir-starmer-pmqs-latest-a9523856.html

 

Some more data:

Source: https://omni.se/over-en-kvarts-miljon-tanker-bryta-reserekommendation/a/0n2mjA

 

In Germany (in most areas) on April 20th most shops have been allowed to reopen, a bit later it was all of them. On April 27th masks have become mandatory in shops and busses asf. It does not seem that the relaxations have had any significant negative impact.

daily detected cases


daily reported deaths


(On 22th March a kind of lockdown has been implemented, rather a smart one,
but testing and tracing was done early. Since 8th March or so big events used to be cancelled.)

This makes me wonder if not the beginning of the spread in "a population" is key, but what could be an expanation???


edit: I copied the graphs, for some reason they tend to vanish. I hope this time they will stay. Can´t delete the "IMG" though. Graphs are from wiki https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19-Pandemie_in_Deutschland

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1263035985161588741


https://twitter.com/user/status/1263036182537142274


https://twitter.com/user/status/1263036243329388545

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1263035708777865217

 

Someone told me earlier today that today was the first day in which no new cases were registered in London. Can anyone confirm this? It would certainly be a step in the right direction if true.

 

25000 trackers is a drop in the ocean given the rates of infection we have.

 

Interestingly South Africa stands out in FT figures as having no excess deaths.

This may be due to reporting, but given 5hat they have community teams in place dealing with HIV and TB , it perhaps demonstrates the effectiveness of old school boots on ground.
Perhaps something for UK to look into ?

 

Yeah they said that, but when I checked Sutton and Croydon - there were still a handful of cases confirmed there.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...cases-are-in-your-area-updated-daily-11956258

Croydon: 19th May - 5
20th May -2

Sutton:
19th May -1
20th May- 1
(At it’s peak had 64 confirmed new cases, but that was quite an anomaly with a lot days seeing closer to 20-40 cases)

Barking and Dagenham
20th May - 1

I haven’t checked others but there probably are cases in the other London Local authorities as well. But definitely numbers have come down a lot.

But there are issues with tests - some people only getting results 1-2 weeks later, Deloitte centralised testing which has been losing tests. So “todays” figure may well have a lag time and may not reflect today.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...rrors-at-uk-drive-in-coronavirus-test-centres

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...larm-over-privately-run-test-centre-in-surrey


There is also the point that cases in the community may not be getting picked up, as the number of actual people tested stands the same for weeks now at 60,000-70,000, despite saying they are “ramping up” number of tests.

Edit: however the coronavirus has now spread elsewhere in the country with the north east being very hard hit. which is why I think the “cordon sanitaire” should have been brought in long before now to restrict movement to other parts of the country.

 

ITV correspondent

Well.. I’m not surprised

https://twitter.com/user/status/1263197769575075842

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1263469338805272580

 

From today’s daily briefing. I admit I am surprised at how high London’s is?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1263507332224475136

 

Rest of article behind paywall/sign up, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...have-prevented-three-quarters-uk-coronavirus/

 

Three-quarters of coronavirus deaths in Britain might have been avoided if the lockdown had begun a week earlier, modelling suggests.

Where does modelling come in to it.A quick shoofty at the worldometer makes it obvious that three quarters of deaths were avoidable. You just read along the line.