Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

I am very concerned that as I suspected, England is still following mitigation (and herd immunity) rather than suppression.

1. in the guardian article above, scientists say contact tracing will only catch 15% of cases

2. We currently have an estimated 8000 cases a day but only about ~2000 of them are being picked up through testing. (Even with apparently “ramped up” testing and the actual number of people tested has been unavailable for nearly a week now.) Why is this? And if only 1/4 of cases are being picked up, only 1/4 will be contact traced at the most.. what happens to the rest? They keep spreading the virus / their contacts and they will never know they’ve been infected? How can elimination ever happen under these circumstances?

I think it would be easy to get back into exponential growth in these circumstances.

Edit: not U.K. I mean England.
Scotland & Wales are very much making their own (much better) decisions.

 

this website seems to be a good source of stats for most countries
https://www.statista.com/page/covid-19-coronavirus

 

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ng-impossible-coronavirus-testing-and-tracing

 

And if all these tests have been rolled out, then why isn't the number of infections generally still on the way up? Are we really supposed to believe that virtually all the tests which have been carried out have turned out negative?

I wouldn't usually quote the Daily Mail as an authority, but this article stating that 18 UK councils haven't even seen their first peak yet gives cause for concern in view of the lockdown measures already being relaxed (all 18 are listed, in case you are concerned):

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coron...eing-eased/ar-BB14JDgW?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ASUDHP

I really can't see how we can fail to have another sharp rise in London - where rates have been steady recently - if my local area is anything to go by: myself excluded, the proportions of people wearing masks on buses this week in my experience has been a maximum of 50%, ranging down to 20% in one case and even 0% in another. This despite us being advised, or even instructed, to wear face coverings on public transport in London to restrict any possible spread. It needs to be made totally unacceptable NOT to wear a face covering on public transport

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-publishes-sage-minutes

You can find the SAGE minutes here:
https://www.gov.uk/search/transparency-and-freedom-of-information-releases?organisations[]=scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies&parent=scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies

The Guardian has written this summary of the minutes:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...how-uk-advisers-reacted-to-coronavirus-crisis

 

I just came across this earlier tweet from Anthony Costello:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1251900296558784512


I can’t understand why there haven’t been more calls like this for these advisors to resign or be sacked. They have proven to be dangerously incompetent. Isn’t it a scandal that they still in charge?

 

I, too, would really like to know... Here are some relevant quotes from a couple of recent news articles:

https://tt.omni.se/risk-for-dominoeffekt-nar-farre-foljer-raden/a/3Jy0yM

https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/fortroendet-for-regeringen-stortdyker-en-ny-signal/

 

I'm anticipating a surge in cases in my area as the lockdown is being loosened and tourist are flocking to beaches in the South West of England, when the local R number is close to 1 (and even above it in some areas):

https://www.somersetcountygazette.c...ns-somerset-just-1---schools-prepare-re-open/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...nts-sees-40-staff-test-positive-Covid-19.html

 

I note that the quote from me in that post is from March 15 when I predicted that the UK government would fall in line with lockdown within a week or so. Which they did. But at some stage I also predicted that UK policy would not come to resemble anything genuinely useful until July after other countries' attempts at easing up led to surges. I think the UK government is going to have a bad June. Van Tam is already making it clear that breaches of rules are not on. And Sage seems to be on the point of mutiny generally. There will be a London surge and the teachers will refuse to co-operate. Tracing will be a fiasco to start with. So it will be July.

But I have a feeling not everything will be bad. Co2 emissions are down and maybe something nice will turn up for my 70th birthday.

 

ETA: BBC News article about this, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-52864454

 

I assume that every single one of those people will be fined for breach of social distancing, and arrested and charged, for behaviour likely to cause a breach of the peace (dunno about anyone else but I'd like to slap 'em - which would be a breach of the peace), affray etc.

 

There should be a 5 mile limit on travelling, like Scotland & Wales (or even less). That way outbreaks can be traced and contained within a community. What on earth is the govt thinking to allow people to travel freely to wherever they like, miles and miles away. During an epidemic, where we have 8000 cases a day which we are already not tracing/testing for. Just like when London had the outbreak first and many regions didn’t, but they decided to just allow people to freely travel anywhere they liked.

 

I don't think people realise that a lot of seaside towns have major social and economic deprivation and therefore there is a substantial proportion of multi-generation households and 'houses of multiple occupation' in these areas. Weston Super Mare is a classic example (my daughter used to teach in a school there). The same is true of Torquay in Devon in particular, plus many many other coastal towns around the country. Wales and Scotland have the right approach to this issue.

 

There seem to be a number of studies suggesting that immunity to Covid-19 may be more common than previously thought...
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/immunity-to-coronavirus-may-be-far-more-widespread-than-thought#

 

Well, in common with the (?)Chris Giles tweet someone linked to, maybe indirectly, I too have been struck by the increasing prevalence of ambulances in my part of South London over the past few days - and that is sightings, not just hearing them. It's only once you start seeing them again that you really register that you hadn't seen any for days. Obviously, I can't say what any of them were called out for, but my perception is certainly that there's a lot more ambulance activity, I think since about the middle of the week. And given the increasing numbers of people on public transport who seem to be entirely ignoring the instruction to wear a mask, I am certainly concerned about where we are heading. I think I shall just disregard the Government's most recent set of guidelines and carry on as before.

 

I must admit I first thought theDurdle Door cliff thing was a joke about people being lemmings...

 

Not sure if this is the right thread, but it's a BBC News item from 30th May on the UK's new guidance and social distancing, which looks quite useful:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52848793

 

I think one of the criteria before loosening lockdown should be that sanitising hand gel is readily and cheaply available. That's certainly not the case at the moment!

I personally think that at least a significant minority of people won't be following the strict social distancing rules as they are currently set out. For the last couple of weeks whilst driving my daughter has been seeing groups of young people hanging around the streets (since the announcement was made for schools reopening) - these kids just don't feel that any of the rules applies to their age group.

 

Could this be true? If so then it makes even less sense that countries such as the U.K. don’t seem to care about face masks. Mandatory face masks would be so important in this case.

And when they say asymptomatic, how do they know they’re not just pre symptomatic - do they follow them all up to make sure?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-with-covid-19-have-no-idea-they-are-infected

Could nearly half of those with Covid-19 have no idea they are infected?
As studies confirm many infected people show no symptoms, contact tracing and face masks assume even greater importance