Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

Thanks for your reply, Trish, and clarification on rule 5 also. I've had a go at setting up a new thread: here. Please feel free to make any corrections, if needed!

 

An Italian scientist explained why the mortality in Italy is higher than in other countries. He says that Italians just count the dead while in other countries they will try to find reasons other than coronavirus infection as cause of death. In Italy they also only count cases that meet the WHO criteria which select a more ill population and increase the apparenty mortality of the illness. An overloaded healthcare system also increases mortality. Finally the average age in Italy is high which worsens the outcomes.

 

Well, just as I was trying to say the other day, we have far more cases than the official figures. And we clearly have much community spread.

Between 5,000-10,000 people infected right now. And that’s apparently a “small number”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...mic-delay-phase-a9396186.html#post-1185846950

 

*** New news out and the UK Govt are changing their tune now ***

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51857856

Anyone with a new persistent cough or high temperature is now advised to self-isolate for seven days, as the UK government moves to the "delay" phase of its plan to tackle coronavirus.

From Friday, school trips abroad will be banned, and older people and those with pre-existing health conditions have been told not to go on cruises.

PM Boris Johnson said it was "the worst public health crisis for a generation".

Announcing the measures after an emergency Cobra meeting, Mr Johnson said: "Some people compare it to seasonal flu, alas that is not right. Owing to the lack of immunity, this disease is more dangerous.

"It is going to spread further and I must level with you, I must level with the British public, many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time."

 

So it’s going to spread but let’s not close schools or do remote working or stop big gatherings like Cheltenham?! Just stay at home for 7 days, stop abroad school trips and cruises.

Mum just said from news, no testing unless you end up so sick you end up in hospital.

And he says; I repeat, we are not closing schools.

 

There are a lot of strong opinions on whether to close schools or not in Sweden too. The reason the government is giving for not closing schools at this point is that it would force too many healthcare professionals to stay home and take care of their own healthy children, instead of going to work where they are needed the most, taking care of very sick people.

Source: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/darfor-stanger-inte-folkhalsomyndigheten-skolor

 

Yes, that’s the reason given here too I think... except children can easily pick it up in schools (I doubt they are conscious of hand gels; hand washing; keeping away from people to the extent adults are); and are instead more likely to pick it up and then pass it on to vulnerable and elderly people..I’m also wondering how many other countries are managing it?! If the UK that cant seem to manage any of these measures. Perhaps the UK govt should ask the other countries how they manage to do all these closures.

Schools are the tip of the iceberg. Massive gatherings with 250,000 people over 4 days? Concerts? Festivals? What about work - no remote working? Any other , even just one social distancing method that other countries have adopted? Nope, not even that.. Etc etc

 

In case anyone wants to know what the UK govt’s plan is:

“letting the virus run through the population”
“Herd immunity” - do we have any evidence of immunity?

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12...ronavirus-herd-immunity-writes-robert-peston/

 

Health expert brands UK's coronavirus response 'pathetic'
Ministers ‘behaving like 19th-century colonialists playing a five-day game of cricket’, says Prof John Ashton

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/health-expert-brands-uks-coronavirus-response-pathetic

 

Just heard Furgus Walsh reporting that the UK government insists it is following best scientific advice, and that unlike normal flu, the spread of Covid-19 is apparently not increased by mass gatherings, which is why they are not prohibiting such gatherings. This sounds like BS to me, but not qualified to know if I'm right or wrong. Can the spread of any highly contagious viral infection not be assisted by mass gatherings? Sounds more like pseudo-science to me - is it?

ETA: For future reference, this was on the BBC's 6 O'clock evening news today, 12 Mar 20, quite a way into it. It was in the context of BJ's earlier Covid-19 announcements, and I think Walsh was generally answering various questions that people had sent in.

 

My guess is that there probably isn't good or even any evidence that shows mass gatherings helps spread the virus, but that's not the same as knowing that mass gatherings are safe. They might be confusing the two.

 

After a quick google, According to the Canadian government guidelines: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-hea...essionals/mass-gatherings-risk-assesment.html

“Mass gatherings can contribute to the transmission of respiratory pathogens, such as the virus causing the current outbreaks of COVID-19. “

I mean, unless the coronavirus is some as-yet-unknown bizarre respiratory virus that is not at all like other cold or flu viruses, despite still being a coronavirus, it looks like the uk govt is giving us wrong information.

 

But he seemed to be saying they know that it does with normal flu, so why would it be any different if the contagion mechanisms are similar?

ETA: As my wife just said, it's not just that there will be a larger number of people in such a gathering with the virus, but that any one person who has the infection will be passing it on to far more people who were uninfected. I cannot understand how the scientific advice would counter this.

 

Yes I agree. I also wonder if this is why many people reporting symptoms are not being tested. No test = no entry in the statistics.

Mods: This is primarily a public health post, not a political statement!

 

According to the world health organisation, @Barry, it spreads in a similar way to flu.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/getting-workplace-ready-for-covid-19.pdf

“When someone who has COVID-19 coughs or exhales they release droplets of infected fluid. Most of these droplets fall on nearby surfaces and objects - such as desks, tables or telephones. People could catch COVID-19 by touching contaminated surfaces or objects – and then touching their eyes, nose or mouth. If they are standing within one meter of a person with COVID-19 they can catch it by breathing in droplets coughed out or exhaled by them. In other words, COVID-19 spreads in a similar way to flu. ”

Later down it says, “
Promote regular teleworking across your organization. If there is an outbreak of COVID -19 in your community the health authorities may advise people to avoid public transport and crowded places. Teleworking will help your business keep operating while your employees stay safe.”

It literally says to avoid crowded spaces.

there’s also another WHO briefing document exactly about this topic, about avoiding crowded spaces and mass gatherings; I can’t find it right now but definitely read it a few weeks ago. It says to avoid crowded spaces as it spreads coronavirus.

 

yes exactly.

 

Yes, this. What I am not understanding; more than anything else, where are the people who are supposed to be questioning this? If something is factually / scientifically incorrect?

 

I mean, then those experts are giving us the wrong information..

It either spreads through crowded events or it doesn’t. The evidence as per the world health organisation and it seems pretty much every other country in the world is, it does.

 

Unbelievable.

Just saw a snippet on Sky News - a dr is asked about what disabled people who rely on carers should/could do if people are isolated and stay at home.

He says - well, of course this is where teleconsultations will help. You'll be able to see your GP that way.

Riiight. How does that get you washed, dressed, fed or watered?

Later same doc is asked something else - reply - waffle, waffle, teleconsultations that we have been working with the NHS to implement.

Aha! So he's there to push demand for teleconsultations. He presumably works for a company that provides the service.