Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

I agree i.e. it's difficult to understand the UK Governments position/policy.

I haven't supported the petition; they charge you to support it.

I was thinking of a small donation to the WHO fund, better to donate to that.

 

No, I didn’t pay to support it? You just have to sign it.

The paying to support spread the word is another optional thing.

 

http://chng.it/jVHWrM2Cqs

Does it work now @FMMM1 ?

 

From the BBC's live update page, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51921683 at time stamp 16:29.

 

Another issue with postponing school closures - I have been told of people being denied the opportunity to work from home, even where this is practical and possible. Their employer has said they will only allow this once the government close schools (and this is in London)!

 

Judging by what we have had the mediate is not true. Several positive cases have claimed to feel fine - on the Diamond Princess, in a ski chalet, a famous film star... That is enough to be a scientific refutation of Vallance's statement.

 

A bit like Montgomery saying that no guns is 'a case for those soldiers'?

 

Where do you get that figure from? The Chinese seem to have nearly achieved clearance in a month. Their continuing problem is international travel.

 

They are now quarantining everyone entering Wuhan for 14 days.

When the EU realises what we've done, they'll be quarantining us as a country for 18 months.

 

As per the summary :

Because I'm pretty sure the very serious downsides to this option are being underplayed when criticising the alternative approach originally taken by the UK.

Perhaps it would be better to acknowledge that governments are likely to be trying to do what they believe is for the best in reponse to a complex and changing challenge and that there are no good outcomes.

 

Looks like the EU have introduced some restrictions on international travel (haven't checked on the detail)
https://mobile.twitter.com/vonderle...rtnws/nl/2020/03/16/liveblog-corona-16-maart/

 

I think it may end up being even simpler than that.
As De Gaulle liked to say - Non!
Or Donald Trump - You're fired.

 

I assumed that using draconian measures would reduce the incidence of new infections over time and in combination with testing you might reach a stage where no new infections are being recorded in the general population at which stage you light think of relaxing the lockdown - but you would need to be pretty sure that's the case before lifting the measures otherwise you're back to square 1.

That's the internal issue. As you say international travel will remain an issue as long as other countries worldwide have yet to reach the same success internally in achieving clearance - hence external borders need to stay sealed and few are 100% secure.

Consequently there's a reasonable likelihood that restrictions can't be fully lifted until a vaccine is available and that's been estimated at 18 months.

That seems pretty consistent with the conclusions from Imperial College.

Re China I hope you're right - official figures from China can be open to interpretation.

Then there's the issue of compliance in the west. China's workforce return comes with restrictions :

https://www.ft.com/content/0ddfa420-9489-4575-8b0e-2d2af6797004

 

Vallance is getting more pointed questions during todays press conference.
He continues to dodge them.

 

given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.

I don't see any evidence for this, other than some historic studies of very doubtful relevance. It is a bit like saying that if you win a war another one is bound to start up.

Science is based on scepticism all the time. When people come up with as incompetent an analysis as the UK people have it needs calling out. And the irony is that letting things rip (a bit) is going to be far far worse for the economy. We could have withstood a period of a few months lock down - and we may still. But four to ten years of dribbling people through intensive care would have finished off all commerce for ever even if they got their guesses exactly right.

 

Well, if you can believe it, the ice cream van has started coming around today - I imagine they want to take advantage of people being at home & 'keep spirits up' - which is great.... there was a crowd round the van all smiling & laughing - community spirit - marvellous.... except they were standing about 6inches away from each other - adults and kids.

And I watched as the lady in the van, took each person's money & then picked up the next cone... no hand washing, no gel, no nothing, just merrily touching everything without a care in the world......
and there they all were merrily watching her doing it, spreading it all around, leaning on the cupboards, counting out the money, picking up the chocolate flakes & the wafers, & scattering the sprinkled & chopped nuts between her fingers.



I haven't eaten a cone from a van in years because they take the money & then touch what you're going to be eating... but now, NOW, they're going to keep doing that?!!!! It's no good pointing it out to the, or to the customers.... i'm afraid the people who live on my avenue would not take at all kindly to that I don't want any anti-Jem sentiment building up, in case things get very ugly later... But I was acutely aware that they were all standing in a queue right outside my door (which is where the van stops), & I looked anxiously up at the air vents in my wall.

I think i'm going to put paper over the vents if they're going to do that every afternoon

People don't seem to have any notion of how desperately serious things are. I know it might be their livelihood & today was a sunny day, but you could at least recommend people keep their distance, and do what you can to keep your hands clean!

 

I suggest that everyone reads the Imperial College report in full and maybe then there will be a better appreciation that the arguments pro and con any particular strategy were and are finely balanced and subject to change as the available data changes :

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

PS - Having read the full report I apologise to @Andy that 'herd immunity' is/was inherently part of the UK govt's immediate strategy but if you read the above report you see why.

 

Idris Elba has tested positive for covid-19. Here's his latest updates on how he's feeling (currently asymptomatic), why he got tested, his thoughts on some of the disinformation that is currently being spread on social media ("black people can't get covid-19") etc.

I think he's doing a great job getting really important info out there, hopefully reaching lots of people who maybe haven't realised the seriousness of the situation yet.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1239995118154702848


https://twitter.com/user/status/1239997526268207105

 

New piece on this from Ioannidis : https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

While I expect everyone would agree with his call for more testing, the importance he seems to place on the death rate from the Princess Cruise ship (while acknowledge the low numbers are a problem) seems odd. He also doesn't address what has been happening in Italy.

 

The Norwegian commercial news channel TV2 has an article about a woman with ME who lives with her three children in Gran Canaria. She feels better there from her ME and has decided to stay put with her children instead of returning back to her home country.

TV2: ME-syke Silje (41) og barna velger å bli på Gran Canaria
google translation: ME sufferer Silje (41) and the children choose to stay in Gran Canaria