Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

They do have an online website, I’ve bought from them before. The person I know who works in a shop in my local area selling home accessories, also has an online store.

Since people can’t be relied upon to behave as they should, the govt should have closed down all outdoor areas (parks, national trusts etc) as well as all indoor areas (shops). It’s clear many people don’t respond to ethical considerations for the good of others, out of their own choice.

 

I'm lucky to live in an area with lots of country walks and open areas. My husband's morning walk was much, much busier than usual. Most of the time you can stay 6" + away, but some of the trails and paths narrow unexpectedly and are steep sided.

I think some people seem to be of a "snow-day" mindset. Temporarily free of restrictions of work and school without being sick and having a make the most of it attitude without thought for the consequences .

I saw one exchange on our Nextdoor site where one woman was moaning as she has a dog and two kids and a very small garden and why had the National Trust shut a local site. Her kids needed a good space to run around and play. Then the person she was posting with explained she was a critical care nurse and running and playing in a crowded space where keeping your distancing is no longer possible is dangerous.

Sadly, I think we will end up with lots of these spaces having to be closed down, because people just aren't getting the message. A shame, because if we don't all go at once, there is plenty of space and being able to have a nice walk outdoors could make life a lot more bearable for so many in the weeks to come.

Talk about being your own worst enemy.

 

Actually if we look at the historical UK coronavirus death numbers shown in the graph on this page, we can see that over the last two weeks, deaths have been doubling approximately every 2 days!

So assuming again a 1% death rate, Tomas Pueyo's formula predicts that there are 8.4 million people infected in the UK today! That's quite an alarming figure.

That means about 1 in 8 people are now infected in Britain.



Tomas Pueyo's formula:

Number currently infected = D * (100/P) * 2^(17/T)

Where:
D = number of deaths to date
T = death number doubling time in days
P = percentage of infected people who die


So plugging in today's values, in the UK we have:

Number currently infected = 233 * (100/1) * 2^(17/2) = 8.4 million.

 

This sounds bang on to me. Very simple solution to very complex problem. Need facilities fast, so state take over of existing spaces - hotels, student accommodations, etc. - with a single design that can be tweaked as needed, so contractors can go in and get facilities up and running fast ... over and over and over again. Just the bare minimum requirement, so you exploit the right side of the law of diminishing returns. People may end up finding their hospital experiences to be extremely utilitarian, but far better they get the chance to feel that way.

The military are good at this stuff, they have to be. No procrastination or bullsh*t, just action. I hope our leaders are seeing this.

 

My wife and I went out for a walk today with our dog. Deliberately avoided one place which is lovely, but confined to boardwalks and narrow paths. Instead went out onto an open heath with many paths (and is also lovely), and whenever we met anyone there just seemed to be an unwritten rule that we kept well away - 20 feet typically I'd say - but still able to exchange some pleasantries along the way. Made a point of not touching gates with hands - on this walk none are latched, just spring loaded. Different, but it felt like safe social distancing did not have to result in complete social isolation.

 

Also - "There was no consensus. Several of the scientists frantically argued that the UK must immediately introduce social distancing to halt the spread of the virus. Some pleaded with the government to change tack or face dire consequences. But others continued to believe that introducing social distancing now would be unsustainable for a long period and would lead to a more disastrous second wave of infection."

I'd like to know which experts were giving this advice, and on the basis of what evidence.

 

Yes, tue that is a possibility; but in any case the exact death rate does not change the result of the calculation by a great deal. Changing the death rate from 1% to 0.5% for example only doubles the calculated figure for the number infected.

For a rough calculation like this, I think you can only hope to get order of magnitude accuracy, no more than that.

Yes, that's right, if new mitigations are applied, which changes the spread dynamic, you would have to wait a week or so for the effects of the mitigations to manifest before you obtain the new exponential spread parameters (ie, the doubling time for the number infected).

But I don't think that affects the calculation I did today, because in the UK major mitigations were only put in place over the last few days, so over the previous 17 days (which is the time period the calculation runs) it would not affect things much.

But for future use of this formula, we would have to wait a week or two for the effect of the mitigations to manifest, and then get the updated exponential parameters.

True, but again I think we can only hope for order of magnitude accuracy in this calculation.

And note that the sensitivity to small changes is greater when the doubling time is very small, like 2 days in this case. It's not so sensitive when the doubling time is say 6 days.

In fact I can't really believe that the number of infected people is doubling every 2 days, as the 2-day doubling of UK death figures suggest.

I don't really understand why these deaths are doubling so fast; maybe the doubling of deaths is happening faster than the doubling of the number infected, for some reason that I can't put my finger on at the moment.



I certainly hope that the calculated figure of 8.4 million is larger than actuality, because if it is really true that 10% to 20% of those infected require hospitalization, then as those 8.4 million start to become sick, it's going really overload the hospitals and the poor doctors and nurses. Not the mention the patients who will die for want of a ventilator.

 

I don't disagree. One of the huge problems we have faced is that everyone is being bombarded with information, and some of it is totally wrong. Just trying to figure out the optimal choices is hard when you don't have accurate facts or good understanding.

 

Yes, this has begun.

 

I don't regard any numbers as reliable right now. Instead I think of them as indicative. Anything with a distinct doubling period is a serious concern. It can go from not much of a problem to a calamity in a short time. Those who are planning to deal with issues need to take that into account.

 

This. My pain has been getting worse and I can’t go into hospital.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1241781371082887168


Today, no new measures. Johnson just asking people to stay away from others but also that going out and about is good for mental health. You know what else is good for mental health? Having a govt that will close down shops, tourist attractions and anything that will stop people going there, and having a govt that will do all it can to delay the spread of the virus and save people lives by enforcing measures not “nudging” people, and do all it can to save our completely drowning NHS. I think we’ve seen all the scenes today from the tourist attractions, parks and supermarkets today in the UK. Horrific.

In other places, BBC correspondent in Rome..

https://twitter.com/user/status/1241747594386321409


Edit: forgot to say, elderly / vulnerable people have to stay at home for 12 weeks and will get food delivered. So is everyone else free to walk around then? What about the fact healthy people live with vulnerable people; and they’ll have carers too? Why doesn’t everyone just stay at home like is happening in other countries. Or are we still on the herd immunity plan?

 

This thing about hospital staff not being able to get shopping; surely the hospitals are getting regular food etc supplies for the patients? Couldn't they organise a little 'staff shop' where employess could pick up some essentials? or organise something with the supermarkets so that the staff get priority deliveries maybe even delivered direct to the hospital for staff to collect?

 

Yes, I wonder if that psychiatrist who was interviewed on the BBC Today programme might be one of them. Can’t remember his name. The one who said he didn’t need to self-isolate when his wife had confirmed covid-19. The one who wanted to go to the BBC studios when the BBC website was publishing the following advice from PHE that he should be self-isolating for 14 days.




Unfortunately, there is still no information about the members of the secret Independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B) on the Government SAGE website: https://www.gov.uk/government/group...mergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

Maybe we should ask Richard Horton to put in a FOI request.

[Edit typo]

 

This worries me too. Not for myself, but it's inevitable that some who need ambulances and emergency care may not get it because the system is over burdened.

I was struck by the SkyNews reader discussing that deaths had occurred in people between the ages of 18 and 102 but kept stressing that all of the deaths were people with underlying health problems & so in at risk groups.

I understand not wanting to panic the general populace but there's a high degree of complacency already. In this situation we are not only responsible for our own health, we are also responsible for each other's through our behaviour.

People don't seem to understand just how sick they may become, even if they don't die. Or that because they have unwittingly spread the infection, when they need an ambulance it won't be there because it will be in the process of being deep cleaned.

 

Hospitals do not organise anythng much these days.They outsource.Catering is probably provided by commercial outfits. Nobody had any idea how to plan a co-ordinated action.

 

It's raining heavily where I am at the moment - hoping it helps wash any surface virus away outside at least?

 

The following was mentioned in a BMJ report: https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1118

Would really like to see the results. It's still very difficult to guess how far the virus has spread in the population.

 

At least it will keep most people indoors