Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

I agree. This has to be the way to do it.

 

A good explanation of the lag time between taking measures and seeing a result (with some moving graphics on the page).
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/2...are-we-locked-down-for-so-long-blame-the-lag/

 

So way way way upthread (like, maybe 50 pages ago??), I asked why the U.S. didn't just using the WHO test that others were using. For a couple of weeks I've come across various explanations for why we don't have enough tests such as this one in the Atlantic, this one at the New York Times, or this one in Vox, which all focused on the problems with the first test the CDC came up with being faulty, the FDA red tape, etc. But it was good ol' Snopes who answered the question for me:

It appears that it never really occurred to anyone to use the WHO test as the CDC just automatically creates its own test and it never occurred to anyone that the CDC could ever f!@# up the test, thus losing valuable weeks. But, you know, they had war gamed pandemics and their models never showed this could happen so how could they have ever known??

 

I think Kiwis will always be allowed to return but they will have to isolate on arrival.
Some of the scientists advising the government are arguing very strongly for keeping borders closed for a very long time. Undoubtedly there'll be others, likely from the industries most affected, lobbying behind the scenes for earlier lifting of restrictions. Let's hope the government listens to the former.

 

It's also a good reminder that a large portion of asymptomatic positives can go on to develop symptoms, in this case about 2/3rds, more than actually ended up being asymptomatic.

I saw this and found it pretty interesting and topical to your comment

https://www.forbes.com/sites/victor...ip-data-to-learn-about-covid-19/#3a596b91406d

 

Yes I think @Jonathan Edwards posted that the scans, of the lungs of people infected with coronavirus, were highly distinctive/diagnostic (probably poor reflection of Jonathan's actual comments!).

They used scans in China i.e. to rapidly identify those infected.

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1243649746985562112

 

Hope this is posted in the right spot.

Vaccine tracker info from RAPS:

https://www.raps.org/who-we-are

"About RAPS
The Regulatory Affairs Professionals Society (RAPS) is the largest global organization of and for those involved with the regulation of healthcare and related products, including medical devices, pharmaceuticals, biologics and nutritional products. Founded in 1976, RAPS helped establish the regulatory profession and continues to actively support the professional and lead the profession as a neutral, non-lobbying nonprofit organization. RAPS offers education and training, professional standards, publications, research, knowledge sharing, networking, career development opportunities and other valuable resources, including Regulatory Affairs Certification (RAC), the only post-academic professional credential to recognize regulatory excellence. RAPS is headquartered in suburban Washington, DC, with chapters and affiliates worldwide."

Groups working on a COVID-19 vaccine:
https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

 

Most of those are going to be failures or have long timelines to production. Only one resembles a traditional vaccine like those on the regular vaccine schedule for other infections. Many are jumping on the bandwagon due to the sudden availability of funding to develop their experimental technology.

I personally hope one of the the recombinant or mRNA vaccines is highly successful, the others are just too experimental (long development time and risk of safety or efficacy issues) or have production speed/scale issues. Also, most of these vaccines will have their trials incredibly hyped, even if they barely work when compared to traditional vaccines.

 

You could achieve the same by having compulsory testing and full quarantine fro all NZers entering after a certain date. More expensive, I suppose, but then you don't have to deny citizens entry to their own country.

Edited to add: I just saw @Hutan and @Ravn made the same point above.

 

That's interesting, but I'm wondering whether we might see some small turnaround in a week. Siouxsie's lag model assumes only symptomatic people will be tested, and that tests will generally not read as positive for a full two weeks. Its true we're not testing people systematically - but rather on the basis of symptoms - but the second one, isn't that the maximum incubation time, not the average?

 

And in my home state of New York, the governor has done absolutely nothing to promote manufacture the machines here. We are in a state of over 30 million people, with more wealth than most countries. We dozens of distilleries and breweries, Pot dispensaries and of course organized crime.
We also made critical parts and materials for the Manhattan project. You'd think we could make a fairly simple device. As a New Yorker, I can tell you that whenever possible, we don’t make stuff, we take stuff.

 

Yes, and thank you for giving us all an early warning to prepare. I was able to stock the freezer well for my mother and I. It was a huge help.

I think in future those who travel overseas should be prepared to be at risk of being locked out of their own country if a sudden pandemic outbreak happens again somewhere in the world while they are away from home.
Each country in the world should show hospitality to other nationalities locked out of their own country in this situation.

I have been reminded since this outbreak of the few times many years while standing at the counter in a bank and suddenly the roller cage came down giving myself and the bank teller a huge fright. The roller cage is protection in case of bank robbery or some other urgent safety reason. I can't help but feel the same thing should happen with immediate closing of a border.

 

I saw this footage today in the news with people in NY standing for hours in line for the hospital, very close to each other. And I was wondering, if they can stand up for so long, do they really need a hospital?

I don't know how health care works there, maybe it's the only place to get tested or help and people fear they will detoriate soon and won't make it in time. It just seemed very risky to stand in crowds with coughing people.

This I found interesting:

A New York Doctor’s Warning
China warned Italy. Italy warned us. We didn’t listen. Now the onus is on the rest of America to listen to New York.

"[...] we were told that positive-pressure oxygen masks, such as CPAP machines, were risky, as they would aerosolize the virus, increasing health-care workers’ risk of getting infected."

"If you have mild symptoms, assume that you have the coronavirus. Stay home, wash your hands, call your doctor. Don’t come to the emergency department just because of a fever or cough. Receiving a test won’t change our recommendation that you remain in self-isolation. We don’t want you to expose yourself to those who definitely do have the virus."

 

I completely understand wanting to come home and feeling upset if I couldn't. I know I take a hard line on this but I just haven't trusted the quarantine situation as much as I would have liked. I hope I am not sounding really critical I don't mean to sound like I don't appreciate what our government has been doing. There are a lot of things that have really impressed me.

The only case that I would be happy with is would be to have an airport in an isolated area and tons of campervans or housing where those returning home could stay and wait out their quarantine. Even better if they could walk to it from the airport. And everyone to be under guard.

 

The problem with quarantine is that you can see leniency given with some flying in from overseas. How did some family members get it when they hadn't flown or been overseas. Quarantine obviously wasn't strict enough.

I may have misheard this but I thought I heard on our 1pm covid19 news update that someone who had flown in had been allowed to drive home on their own to their home to quarantine - a five hour journey - hope they don't decide to stop at a dairy on their way home. What's more is that the rest of us who are in lockdown and told to stay in our local area and who have not travelled overseas but are doing our very best to abide by the rules and here we have a traveller who is at more risk of having covid19 and passing it on to others been given permission to take a long journey by car and police themselves. And here's the reason for my lack of trust.

 

As I heard it, that was more of a "we will get to a stage when ^ happens", rather than it had already happened.

 

Yeah, I hope it's going to be quicker, too, but of course it all depends on how well people comply with the restrictions.

I agree that Siouxsie's lag model makes some simplified assumptions, which I'm sure she's well aware of. I think she's trying to keep it simple since her target audience is the non-sciency general public - and I strongly suspect her main intention with this article is to manage expectations. There's a danger if people expect results too soon and don't see them they'll think it's all pointless and start ignoring the social distancing pleas.