Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

Watched the news this morning and Chiropractors here are claiming on social media that they can 'boost immunity by 200%' by manipulating the spine. They have been advised to stop the misinformation.

 

Dominic Cummings is self isolating with symptoms of coronavirus.

 

Long article in the New Yorker (also available as audio):

How Does the Coronavirus Behave Inside a Patient?
We’ve counted the viral spread across peoples; now we need to count it within people:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/06/how-does-the-coronavirus-behave-inside-a-patient

 

I wonder if she's trolling on purpose..I've never heard of her until she shared her Covid diagnosis and I learned that she's SW's partner.

That use of the word "fatigue" was provocing and of course pwME - or with "false illness believe" - jumped on it and now she can tell everyone that with the right attitude you recover and go back to baking or whatever.

I'm scared by how psychiatrists already are putting their claws on this trying to gain significance. I wish they would stay in their line with really supporting people's mental health when needed - not using mental health as an excuse for poor medical outcomes and political mismanagement (speaking in general)

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1244546049009647617


https://twitter.com/user/status/1244317098769371139

 

This is British Exceptionalism at its absolute worst.

As @Sasha has asked about, if there is no one at the “top” pushing for eradication and testing, how will things ever change? It’s very worrying and frustrating.

 

Just saw on BBC News 24 that the Office for National Statistics is about to start publishing coronavirus death figures that include deaths in the community, not just in hospitals. I hadn't realised that the figures so far didn't include all deaths.

 

I'm not really concerned. We were slowly but effectively erased from reality because almost nobody in medicine cared about us and were willing to fling the hot potato to someone who demanded it. Even the biggest ME outbreaks were rather small all things considered. Technically it seems SARS was the truly the biggest one but it flew completely under the radar. Somehow. Frankly that's weird but then everything is with us.

This time it's massive. If they try to get some limelight here their private bits will be very exposed by the incompetence of their ideas. In full HD at high FPS for that extra hairy glory. I'm sure many of them are delusional enough to have convinced themselves that they have any clue what they're doing but this is such an explosive event, very different thing than the shadowy work they needed to do with us, where they controlled the proceedings and could exclude anything they didn't like from being written down in the first place.

Many will have PVF and likely ME, many will have mild cases, many of those will be people who huffed the BPS paint and will be faced with the reality that what they'd been told all along is a bunch of made-up BS that qualifies as a proper scam, as well as a human rights disaster but hey, small detail.

I get a mental image of someone who somehow convinced themselves they are an invincible superhero jumping on the tracks to stop the incoming freight train. It won't leave much to examine after the fact. We are easy pray, generally hated by most medical professionals, and still it took decades to pull it off. Not this time. The emperor really wants to give his big speech, entirely oblivious to the fact that inviting the cameras to capture the moment is how you destroy the myth of the magical expensive clothes.

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1244656338829000710

 

Measuring new cases against all cases in a logarithmic coordinate system.
(youtube channel minutephysics).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc

 

i wonder did she hog a delivery slot or go out and buy it herself?

 

This video is interesting if you like watching simulation models and the impact different measures have on the epidemic spread.
He simulates various things like 100%compliance with social distancing versus 90% and 50% compliance.
Also the effect of isolation with the exception of people going to a central location like a supermarket.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs

 

Coronavirus - decision making under radical uncertainty :

https://www.eurointelligence.com/public.html

Some fair points.

 

Most media and commentary I'm seeing keeps talking about getting through the peak and we'll be through this in 6-8 weeks. After the peak things will reopen and the economy will recover. How accurate is this? How do countries that are on lockdown re-open? The whole thing starte in some places with 1 or 2 infections. I get that there will be smaller numbers with contact tracing and social distancing, but how optimisitic are people and governments being? Sort of a general question for anyone.

 

Australian new case numbers went flat for about five days and now appear to be going down. Its possible this is just reporting lag, but it might be actually turning new case numbers around.

 

I think the 6-8 weeks may be perfectly realistic. Once the out of home spread mechanism is blocked we just have to wait for relatives to get infected and recover or not - that should take no more than month or so.

What seems to me, as to you, implausible is that any sort of return to normal economic activity could begin for many months because clearing out the last few cases will take a long time and if they are not cleared out the problem will flare up exactly the same within a month or so. Rather few people have been infected as a percentage of the population so there will be no slowing from 'herd immunity' for years.

What may be more realistic is that certain types of business currently shut down may be able to start up again. I am personally waiting for solicitors and council officers to sort out a house purchase. That might get back on track. I also want to buy in some wire mesh fencing for the garden and the timber merchant might be able to one up again. But anything that requires commuting or international travel is going to be hugely problematic. I suspect we will gradually get to know a very different sort of lifestyle with even more emphasis on internet communication. I think that different lifestyle may last five years at least.

I don't think a new runway or high speed train is going to be needed for a while.

 

This is interesting. Anthony Costello thinks setting up testing centres + tracing, is even more important than lockdown; and could help with suppression in 6-8 weeks:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1244664552714899456

 

Historical perspective (gleaned from the microbe.tv virology podcast, i.e. the organization Gideon). https://www.gideononline.com/blog/