"You're all wrong. Welcome to Long COVID"
Has been my catch phrase for the past few years.
Or in this case, I think you're all right. I find myself agreeing with every opposing argument. Because of the big black void.
The way I break it down is thus:
- Until we can measure this condition, beyond patient self-reporting, we won't be able to evaluate treatment efficacy, beyond patient self-reporting. That's entirely too subjective to my liking. Too many moving parts.
- Until we know what's behind the dysfunction, any potential treatment will remain a stab in the dark. The odds of hitting the target are not just slim — they are practically null.
However:
- Serendipity hasn't only led to some medical breakthroughs, but a plurality of civilization-altering findings. And you aren't going to hit a damn thing unless you keep stabbing.
So I say we keep stabbing. While also searching for the underlying mechanisms. It isn't a zero-sum game, as most of the blind stabbing is being done by patient-led initiatives supported by trusted doctors who are often (as in my case) friends. Predatory quacks are another matter altogether. They deserve censure, prison time and bankruptcy. But I digress.
If a patient (me) asks for a trial of some molecule that makes at least a minimum of physiological sense, has no contraindications, and appears to have benefited some people (which means less and less to me as time goes on — those same people tend to reappear on the Long Hauler forums months later, conveniently forgetting that their recovery story should probably undergo some editing/updating), why the hell not try?
Because it could make me worse? That due diligence is on me and my attending to suss out beforehand and for the duration of treatment. Is it a waste of time and money? Probably. Any more than just rotting away with this disability? Not if it yields some positive results. I used to get
a lot done.
Which leads me back to the reason I agree with both sides in this debate: we don't know. Probabilities are one thing, but sheer dumb luck has cured more than a few intractable diseases. Place your bets. May the best option win.
You’re essentially asking a mechanic to try and fix a car by going to a general hardware store and picking an item randomly.
I love this analogy. Stealing it.
I disagree. The difference is not in our perception of how likely ‘basic science’ is to produce a result. It’s in how likely it is that ‘trying promising drugs’ will produce a result.
IMO that chance is essentially zero.
You're probably right, but time will tell — cause you ain't stopping me!
Thinking through this again, I believe me and
@poetinsf disagree on both how likely it is basic science will find a cure and for random experiments to find a cure.
Hard disagree. Just look at how successful alchemists were at turning stuff into gold! Wait... Oh.
I believe random experiments have a near zero chance of finding a cure. And that basic science has a substantially higher chance.
NEAR zero. So there is a chance! (But yes, basic science is the light switch. By all means, turn on the lights).
As far as I can tell, nobody except for maybe the person that wrote the compiler, knows how computer programs really work. They frequently crash, require constant maintenance and often just do the bare minimum they have to do in ways that really were not intended. When you fix a bug, you often have no idea why it occurred in the first place, and even less of an idea of why the new thing worked.
The human body is so much more complex that it would be exceedingly unlikely to stumble upon any useful information or insigth by trying things randomly or even semi-informed.
We can’t even figure out how AI models work, and we created them. They are far less complex than the human body.
THANK YOU! This AI bubble isn't just a bubble because of speculative investing, but because so few people understand the technology's fundamental limitations.
"
OpenAI admits AI hallucinations are mathematically inevitable, not just engineering flaws." —ComputerWorld Sept 18th, 2025
You could have 5 people that say that they feel good after doing CBT for a week or you could have 5 people that report feeling horrible, we know there are plenty reasons for either and we know why neither matter. How would you select what constitutes a success when you're purely relying on subjective reports were some people might be more prone to believe in something rather than something else and you'd likely end up picking those that are more likely to believe in something?
Exactly. As I said: too fuzzy. Too unreliable.
It is of course plausible that one can stumble upon a treatment via luck, similar to how things happened with Rituximab, even though it didn't work in the end, but I don't see this approach being a very fruitful one at getting there but there are probably meaningful approaches how one could increase ones luck (for example by setting up long-term patient registers).
Eureka Health seemed promising as a repository of compiled accounts as to the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of treatments, but the platform pivoted to AI slop. There are such things as
https://longhaulwiki.com/treatment-outcomes/ (which I'm not familiar with, was looking for Eureka just now when I saw they had flushed all their data and saw Long Haul Wiki). I'm thinking something a little more formalized would be to everyone's benefit. Instead of everyone not only stabbing in the dark, but without the benefit of everyone else's experience in stabbing here vs there.
Anyway. Onward. We'll get there.