Chandelier
Senior Member (Voting Rights)
Temporary Shock or Lasting Scar? Life Expectancy Trajectories Since COVID-19
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic led to substantial global life expectancy losses.
Historically, life expectancy reversals were followed by rapid returns to previous trajectories, but it remains unclear whether this pattern applies to COVID-19.
We extend life expectancy estimates through 2024 for 34 high-income countries and quantify annual and cumulative life expectancy deficits by comparing observed life expectancy to counterfactual forecasts based on pre-pandemic trajectories.
Five years after the pandemic’s onset, recovery remains incomplete: in 2024, 31 of 34 countries still had lower-than-expected life expectancy.
We identify four trajectories:
(a) early deficit (largest deficits in 2020 or 2021 with gradual recovery);
(b) second wave peak (largest deficits in 2021 with a sharper rebound);
(c) late deficit (minimal early impact followed by smaller deficits from 2022 onward);
(d) prolonged deficit (smaller but persistent deficits without a sharp peak).
In general, countries with severe second-wave peaks (such as the USA and Bulgaria) had the largest 5-year deficits.
In contrast, countries that delayed widespread infection (e.g., Norway, Japan) saw later deficits that persisted through 2024, but with lower overall mortality.
Our findings suggest that COVID-19 was not a uniform, short-lived mortality shock. Instead, most high-income countries experienced multi-year disruptions, with varied recovery patterns that continue to shape population health five years on.
Web | DOI | medRxiv | Preprint | Open Access
Dowd, Jennifer B.; Schöley, Jonas; Polizzi, Antonino; Aburto, José Manuel; Jaadla, Hannaliis; Lei, Haohao; Kashyap, Ridhi
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic led to substantial global life expectancy losses.
Historically, life expectancy reversals were followed by rapid returns to previous trajectories, but it remains unclear whether this pattern applies to COVID-19.
We extend life expectancy estimates through 2024 for 34 high-income countries and quantify annual and cumulative life expectancy deficits by comparing observed life expectancy to counterfactual forecasts based on pre-pandemic trajectories.
Five years after the pandemic’s onset, recovery remains incomplete: in 2024, 31 of 34 countries still had lower-than-expected life expectancy.
We identify four trajectories:
(a) early deficit (largest deficits in 2020 or 2021 with gradual recovery);
(b) second wave peak (largest deficits in 2021 with a sharper rebound);
(c) late deficit (minimal early impact followed by smaller deficits from 2022 onward);
(d) prolonged deficit (smaller but persistent deficits without a sharp peak).
In general, countries with severe second-wave peaks (such as the USA and Bulgaria) had the largest 5-year deficits.
In contrast, countries that delayed widespread infection (e.g., Norway, Japan) saw later deficits that persisted through 2024, but with lower overall mortality.
Our findings suggest that COVID-19 was not a uniform, short-lived mortality shock. Instead, most high-income countries experienced multi-year disruptions, with varied recovery patterns that continue to shape population health five years on.
Web | DOI | medRxiv | Preprint | Open Access
