You raise some interesting questions,
@Samuel.
...
Looking for lots of answers, each to explain a different symptom is just not practical.
thank you for taking the time. i think i understand a
little better. but that last sentence ... i want a small number of answers to explain most of them.
i'm not sure if your post addresses the symptom profile i am talking
about.
> The problem lies in the nature of the way we have to
calculate probabilities - Bayes theorem and all that, as you
know.
ok.
> So the question is why does it seem that doctors are less
likely to take interest and look for autoantibodies, the
more symptoms they are presented with. The reason is that
the doctor's first task is to try to deduce the most likely
causal links underlying symptoms. The second task is of
course to address the symptoms themselves but very often to
do that efficiently they have to have an idea of the likely
cause.
the unusualness of the cases i am talking about (outrageous
number of symptoms but also obvious m.e.) seems to call for
a doctor who will think about biology.
because i have no clue.
> And doctors deduce causal links from specific clinical
patterns. So swollen joints and pericarditis makes them
think rheumatoid arthritis very likely.But swollen joints,
conjunctivitis and pericarditis makes rheumatoid arthritis
much less likely.
so /adding/ a symptom makes a diagnosis /less/ likely in
your example.
i /think/ i understand, but i find it troubling.
i can see the value of algorithms and checklists to keep
things sane.
however, this feels like case-based reasoning. a set of
templates. each person has one disease, unless
complications are mentioned in the disease that fits. if a
fit isn't good enough, then press harder. confidently
prescribe a drug that fails. send the bill. or something?
that's kind of my experience with doctors.
===
by around 1999 i had dozens of "probably correct as far as
they go" diagnoses like conjunctivitis and interstitial
cystitis, but NO UNDERLYING DIAGNOSIS after more than 30
years.
they kept testing for hiv and asked me if i was gay, and
confirmed the interstitial cystitis or reversed phase sleep
disorder or whatever by doing absolutely nothing, and then
sent the bill.
so i bought medical books.
===
Amazon says Harrison's internal has 2,784 pages. It is set
in small print, multicolumn. Lange's Internal is also huge.
i went through EVERY DISEASE IN BOTH BOOKS to find out which
one i had. the closest i found by symptoms was wegener's
granulomatosis, but that seemed wrong.
there was a "cfs" but they said something like
"characterized by fatigue, treatment reassurance".
===
i kept getting stuck on "and other symptoms". ANYTHING fits
that! there's a laying on of hands in medicine that i was
not part of. i could not pierce those three words.
WHICH OF THOSE "AND OTHER SYMPTOMS" DISEASES WAS MINE? i
had no idea. maybe it was hidden deep in the chapters on
osmolality vs. osmolarity. (joke -- NOOOOOOOT.)
so case-based reasoning didn't work. i needed somebody to
think about biology. or at least to translate "and other
symptoms" into laymanese.
===
> The bottom line is that if a doctor is given a long list
of symptoms they have no way of making any sense of them in
terms of a recognised syndrome for which they can find
evidence in the books for a cause. So the usual practice is
to try to make sense of four or five major symptoms and
assume that the others may be coincidental.
it seems extraordinary that my huge number of diseases and
symptoms are all coincidental except a few. something
something occam.
so i am confused.
===
but maybe we are talking at cross purposes?
are you referring to what's needed for (1) TREATMENT of an
individual with a non-textbook symptom profile, or (2)
SCIENCE on a relatively narrowly defined disease, m.e.?
my question is (1).
i want to have diagnosis and treatment.
> It might seem that we should be looking for causes for
more complex patterns shown by individuals - maybe with a
dozen symptoms. But if we can only deduce causal links from
reliable correlations between symptom patterns and lab tests
we need at least ten cases with the same pattern and the
same lab tests to have any reason to think they go together.
perhaps you are referring to (2) scientists trying to find
the cause of m.e.?
that sounds reasonable for science.
that's not my concern here. i need diagnosis and treatment.
> We then have the problem that the more autoantibodies we
look for the more spurious associations we will find. About
40% of normal people will have one of the common
autoantibodies. If you tested for forty autoantibodies I
suspect almost all normal people would come up positive on
some. So we have the same problem we have with the research
papers we have seen recently where nothing can be concluded
because so many things have been looked for.
i get this. will those normal people be healthy? still, i
get this.
but does this mean that an individual with a large symptom
list -- who has tested positive for ds-dna and intrinsic
factor and hypogammaglobulinemia -- shouldn't get tested for
anything autoimmune?
if the answer is "no no, go ahead and test for the four
biggest things", i don't even know what four symptoms are
most relevant, and my doctor is lost in all this and busy.
> I also have a strong feeling that the cases of ME most
likely to be autoimmune will not be those with lots of
different symptoms but ones with fatigue/malaise and not
much else. In known diseases where patients have several
types of symptom you are pretty guaranteed that at least one
will be based up by objective pathology or radiology
tests. So a patient with lupus with five symptoms is almost
bound to show an abnormal ESR or blood count or chest x-ray
or a skin biopsy. On the other hand a patient with a
lupus-like illness that might get diagnosed as ME is likely
just to feel ill and have maybe one or two other symptoms.
ok for those people, but this misses the symptom profile i
am talking about. where does it fit?
where do i (and others who are similar) belong? i am
starting to think i do not technically belong in the
m.e. community at all.
i have m.e. by strict definitions. i resonate with
m.e. descriptions. i have m.e.
but i recently sense that NOBODY in the m.e. community
(including scientists) is thinking about symptom profiles
like mine, which means it is much more rare than i thought.
so i am definitely alienated here.
do i have an underlying disease that is causing m.e. as part
of it? what disease is that?
> Similarly for the T cell based auto inflammatory diseases,
the ones that might get diagnosed as ME are the ones with
very few specific features. The ones with joint swelling,
rash, urethritis and bowel problems have objective clinical
pathology.
a little confused. do you mean diagnosed or misdiagnosed?
but again i sense not relevant to the symptom profile i am
describing.
> The priority for me is to try to find something on a lab
test that tells us something about the cause of the central
symptoms of ME/CFS - the malaise and intolerance of external
stimuli for instance. Until we have some progress on that I
see no point in chasing symptoms that a small minority might
have.
i'm ok with being cast aside by m.e. researchers if that is
the best thing to do. i will rot and die in the gutter
having never really known what health is like, but more
normal m.e. people will be saved.
but i'd like at least some doctor or researcher, anywhere in
the world, to figure out what is wrong with me, even if only
roughly.
> I can see that we might want to find one explanation for a
core set of features that varied from case to case. In RA we
pinned down a causal mechanism for nine core features. We
tested 50 tissues and found nine positive and forty one
negative so we felt we were on the right track. But we had
decided in advance exactly what single molecule we were
going to test for. Looking for lots of answers, each to
explain a different symptom is just not practical.
back to the last sentence again. i get this, but somebody with the symptom profile i am describing has SOME REASON for having it. am i right?
if it's a different disease, then fine -- where is the
science for THAT disease? m.e. is just a tiny subset.
i have wanted a name for my disease my whole life and i no longer think m.e. is the underlying disease -- if you are right about the small number of symptoms thing as i understand it from your post.