Will it ever be reasonably safe for PwME to go back into society, post-Covid?

I haven't been following the news for a long time now and I'm wondering what the end-game is supposed to be - in the UK, at least - for the pandemic.

I'm wondering whether it will ever be reasonably safe for a PwME to go out in public as normal again.

Prevalence is so high at the moment that, despite being double-vaccinated, I'm remaining in isolation (as I have throughout the pandemic).

We're obviously well beyond the point of being able to eradicate Covid. Are prevalence rates likely to fall enough long-term for it to be possible to return to normal life? And if so, when is that likely?

 

I am also in isolation although I am now too sick to go out after getting covid last year. I am not yet vaccinated for various reasons including that I feel safer at home than going anywhere at the moment*. It also wouldn't change what I am able to do day-to-day - as you say, I'd still remain in isolation even if I were able to go out and double vaccinated. What I am personally hoping is to get vaccinated when rates are lower and then for rates to come down even more eventually. I don't know if case rates will ever drop to a level where I feel safe in settings where I know that people have a lot of contacts. I have stopped seeing my physiotherapist despite him offering home visits. This may have been where I got covid in the first place. I am hoping to see my physio again someday, but I don't know. I do expect rates to come down substantially someday. I am worried about what happens if they stop tracking it as we will not know how to keep ourselves safe by doing necessary things at times of low rates xx

*Edit: I live alone and do not see anyone. I do not step out of the door and am still severe ME/CFS although I have improved slightly lately.

 

Good question. I am concerned at the level of stupidity and selfishness I have seen and heard about recently. It doesn't give me any hope that we won't be plunged back into some type of lockdown.

Recently IM and I took a trip to the garden centre. A lot of it is open air but there is a large indoor bit you've got to walk through on the way in and out. We put our masks on while in the car.

At the entrance there's a sign, clearly asking people to wear masks out of consideration for the people who work there. Out of maybe 30 people we saw there were only maybe one or two wearing masks apart from staff.

In addtion, our chimney sweep gave a lift to two fellow female sweeps to an exhibition. Our sweep is fully vaccinated, she has elderly parents who are vulnerable and is in and out of homes every day. On the return leg of a 3 hour round trip her passengers informed her they hadn't been vaccinated, that the whole covid thing was a load of hype, it was only the flu. They berated her for being over the top getting vaccinated. They completely failed to recognise that while being very vocal about exercising their right to choice, by failing to let her know this in advance they had denied her the choice of not being in a small metal box with them for several hours.

I think people are letting their guard down generally thinking we're through the worst of it. Believing just because they haven't had it yet, they probably won't get it.

It's selfish stupidity that'll kill off the human race and, unlike covid, apparently there's no cure for that.

 

I am still isolating, although that wasn't the plan by this point, it's just the 'rate' is still over 300 here (around 8 to 10 times what it was during the first lockdown) and my understanding is it's primarily delta.

It is unlikely to be lack of a 'safety' issue that forces me out, it's likely to be need e.g. in 2 weeks I will have to go out in order to give access to a person installing a new electricity meter in the underground car park (forced upon me by the decision of my housing association to save 15p and not provide me with a second security access fob for these sort of situations a few years ago). This will reduce my need to go out medium to long term, at least until something else comes up that would be impractical or 'dangerous' to leave to others.

There is no way of being absolutely safe, it's just a matter of balancing risk/benefits, at least for me.

 

Sorry to hear about your experiences, @Ariel, @Invisible Woman, and @Wonko.

I'm wondering how the government sees this, and epidemiologists (people like Anthony Costello). Where do they see us all headed?

 

Over here, i go outside without a mask (mask on for hallway and elevators)- that is providing i keep my distances with anyone, 6 feet minimum and that the people i interact with do not cough or anything. for indoors situations, i only go for groceries or small errands. No restaurants, very occasional coffee shop (not sitting, just ordering and go). I feel my risk exposure is quite low but outbreaks can happen and i keep myself informed about the numbers. Being able to go outside for fresh air is very helpful for my sanity.

i think there will be a risk for a long time as the virus will mutate. It is a matter of staying on guard, avoiding high risk situations, and keeping up with hand hygiene.

 

Since before the first lockdown the only places I have been are to the local corner shop (electricity and on 2 occasions electricity and milk) and the closest postbox (twice, in the middle of the night, to post official benefits paperwork that had to be back by a certain date). That's it (other than trips down to the bin or the electricity meter) since last March.

 

Covid-19 will fade into the background and become a minimal risk. We are not beyond the point of being able to eradicate Covid19. We haven't got near that yet. Having not done what New Zealand did it was bound to take 2-4 years to get enough people immune for the virus to stop spreading. Our eradication policy has to be built on herd immunity after all and will be.

The current policy of letting things go means that, with vaccinations, we may be due to get to adequate immunity by about Christmas. The numbers will fall gradually but at some point the fall may get quite steep. Exponential rise is mirrored by exponential fall once the R number drops enough.

There might be another phase from a new variant but I think it relatively unlikely.

 

I was vacc'ed at home for that reason.

Sorry, Trish, I didn't realise - have I mucked that up?

 

Yes, good question.

I've been isolating since before lockdown but am fortunate as I can go out, without a mask, for fresh air and tiny walks (2 minutes max) and maybe spy someone and have a quick human to human, distanced chat - Although I've got really good at talking/whispering to myself!

However, I can't envisage allowing anyone in my house or going anywhere or touching anyone. So, 'end game'? I have no idea. But I have no idea about so many things now.

 

Thanks, Jo, that's all very interesting. What sort of Covid prevalence would you say was 'minimal risk'? And by 'eradication' do you mean zero cases, or so few cases that it's 'minimal risk'?

Given the terrible situation worldwide, I'm wondering whether herd immunity will ever get us there.

I'm surprised (and would be delighted!) if we got there by Xmas. I've been in total isolation since the pandemic started and would really like to see people again and be able to feel that I can walk safely in the street.

Is there some modelling that shows this Christmas thing?

 

Hopefully the pandemic will be mostly over by next year.

 

The Atlantic has some interesting articles on this:

"How the Pandemic Now Ends" by Ed Yong
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has-changed-pandemic-endgame/619726/

"The Coronavirus Is Here Forever. This Is How We Live With It" by Sarah Zhang
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/08/how-we-live-coronavirus-forever/619783/

 

I have tried to get out of the house as much as I can through the pandemic. That said I am normally homebound and I want fresh air if I can get outside.

We have had a string of things going wrong in our house. The latest to be the dishwasher dying so tradesmen have been here more than usual.

The adverse reaction to the AZ jab I had is still with me and I cannot contemplate getting another one right now. The side effects are robbing me of some of the small enjoyment I have in a very limited life.

I also cannot contemplate living locked up in my home so I am taking my chances when I can.

It's been great not spending months with flus and colds.

 

I think if headline case numbers fall to 1,000 per day risk will be pretty small. There are lots of hidden factors that make the headline figures on their own misleading. I think risk now is much small even with figures still high. Certain sections of the community tend to mediate spread at any one time. Once schools have been back for six weeks I suspect that the last main rapid-spreading section will play out.

Complete eradication will take a lot longer because of air travel and residual low level spread but I think it will happen. People talk of Covid19 becoming permanently around. But my guess is that for every virus that has hung around for decades or centuries there are ten that just faded away because continuing spread long term is a very different task for a virus than spreading in a pandemic.

 

As a 35 journeyman with ME who took Chinese Medicine to offset the worst of the presentations only to then lose my already damaged kidneys as a result of a toxin in the "tea", I too have been house bound for over two years since going to a DWP Tribunal which (of course) didn't end well. There is a total absence of recognition that a growing proportion of society is playing Russian Roulette with its health in any location where Covid is unchecked. All pronouncements are usually made by healthy individuals with a longer life in front of them than the 20% of society called "Boomers".

 

Oh, i cannot offer to tell you how encouraged i am by your post Jonathan. You've been pretty much spot on since it first appeared in China way back in early 2020, so your hopefulness gives me such hope! Even if it takes longer than that, an end to the level of fear and measures - cleaning/quarantining deliveries/masks etc would be such a relief!

Incidentally @Jonathan Edwards , are you still wiping your shopping?