Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

Excellent article
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21P1VF?__twitter_impression=true

 

This article about one of the first antibody testing trials in the US mentions testing two weeks apart
https://www.theatlantic.com/science...s-tests-everyone-tiny-colorado-county/608590/

 

Yes, and also a leader who will follow the advice contained in it.

Code:

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1245720391168995329

https://twitter.com/user/status/1245720391168995329

 

I'm feeling a bit less anxious now especially since our government (NZ) is stepping up on quarantine. Two weeks into lockdown and we now have the lowest number of new cases since the start of lockdown.

Considering the number of New Zealanders that returned home the spread could have been a lot worse.

 

I totally agree @Sean I would like to see everyone wearing a mask when out walking. Very few do. Many do wear a mask while going into a dairy and the supermarket but I think it would help greatly if we add the mask as another preventative to at least try to beat this thing as much as we possibly can.

 

So as thought, it was always a political decision.

Why is it hard? Other countries have shown it’s possible.

What worries me about reading this article is the sense of complacency about the govt’s advisers, still. And the lack of any solid plan. There’s nothing anywhere in that article about attempting to eliminate the virus completely in the long term or to get case numbers and deaths down as low as possible. It’s only still about:

 

I happened to listen to Newsnight (BBC2) last night and they re-broadcast a clip of the earlier Coronavirus press conference. Chris Whitty, in response to a question from Robert Peston, said something along these lines:
"we all know that Germany got ahead in terms of its ability to do testing"
[

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOqBiQp_2_Q

- about 12 minutes 40 seconds in]

So that seems to indicate a change i.e. need to move to testing (and tracing?) --- lets hope they are organising it! No small task, Germany are currently doing roughly 500K (PCR) tests/week, correcting for UKs smaller population, that's 400K for UK + Germany proposes to increase its testing!

The UK is roughly the 6th largest economy in the world so it should be able to deliver testing on this scale + it means that things start getting back to normal (ish) for most people. For a lot of the rest of us I think "normal" might be post vaccine --- whenever that is!

 

I suspect that the current approach will continue until European and American governments see places like China and New Zealand roaring back into economic growth having blocked all air traffic - except to other countries that have eliminated the virus. Only then will the UK and the US ee how far behind the economic curve they are - going off in the wrong direction.

 

I was thinking of a bit of a paradox about the non-essential.

Governments seem to be driven by the idea that older people are non-essential to 'the economy' and so may have to be sacrificed to keep the (?essential) economy going.

Yet when it comes to lock down all essential services continue - what is shut down is the non-essential - although that seems to be 'the economy'.

 

Today's results from NZ (comparing NZ to others at the corresponding timepoint). I added in Australia, looks like you guys are turning this around too:

 

Economy does not distinguish between essential and non-essential. It is simply a sort of acting with units of money.

I am afraid we are still quite a bit away from doing what we want, and will be thrown into what we can (or not can). In Italy and Spain there are already problems for some people with money and food.

If you block the trade, you will loose some prosperity, probably especially in rich countries. - So the virus might be a chance to focus somehow on more essential things in general.

 

How Europe failed the coronavirus test

Contagion’s spread is a story of complacency, overconfidence and lack of preparation.

https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-europe-failed-the-test/

Makes a change from the usual self-flagellation.

 

You would think?

Brussels drops lockdown exit plan after anger from capitals

Governments force Commission into U-turn over fears it was moving too quickly.

https://www.politico.eu/article/com...gy-as-countries-push-to-lift-corona-measures/

 

I agree, once you can see other countries returning to something closer to normal then pressure should increase on the policy folks (Government) --- if they can make this happen then why cant we? I assume it will also be difficult for the Government to come up with counter arguments --- how do you say something cannot be done if country X, Y --- are already doing it? Mind you they are masters at this!

 

I may be wrong but this looks to me like quibbling over when you can reduce lockdown and 'get away with it'. States are closer to reality than the EU bureaucracy. I have not heard any states declare that they intend to eradicate as in China. Maybe some do intend to but in continental Europe I would have thought that needs to be explicit because border are porous.

 

I had a quick look at some new death numbers on the worldometer, there might be a tendency of a plateau, apart from the USA though.

Also Japan might show an elevation, on a low level of numbers though.
Korea has low new corona deaths but quite constant ones.
China might be similar (apart from that it had been reported high deaths in feb.)
Most visible is a plateau in Iran since March 17th. New cases are declining since March 31th.
In Czechia a plateau might be seen since March 25th. New cases decline since say Mach 28th.


Although I don´t want to say that the virus doesn´t cause special corona deaths, and although different strategies have been implemented, this might not reflect a very dynamic situation either.

 

Seems like the Kiwis' government-appointed experts are better than most other countries' government-appointed experts. And I imagine to be handling it this well the NZ government must actually be heeding and acting on the advice of said experts. Maybe the NZ experts are appointed because of ... well ... their expertise.

 

I think this is moderately likely. The USA and UK are likely to become isolated, with limited economic opportunity, and restricted travel. However, while air travel will be restricted, cargo transport by ship should not be impacted much, which means that supply chains should function.