Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

[Sean]

This is what a good plan looks like. Kudos to the Kiwis.

The essential elements of an elimination strategy for COVID-19 are likely to include:

1. Border controls with high-quality quarantine of incoming travellers;

2. Rapid case detection identified by widespread testing, followed by rapid case isolation, with swift contact tracing and quarantine for contacts;

3. Intensive hygiene promotion (cough etiquette and hand washing) and provision of hand hygiene facilities in public settings;

4. Intensive physical distancing, currently implemented as a lockdown (level 4 alert) that includes school
and workplace closure, movement and travel restrictions, and stringent measures to reduce contact in public spaces, with potential to relax these measures if elimination is working;

5. A well-coordinated communication strategy to inform the public about control measures and about what
to do if they become unwell, and to reinforce important health promotion messages.

Only thing I would add is wearing masks in public. The more possible breaks in the transmission chain, the better.

https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-art...pandemic-and-what-is-required-to-make-it-work

 

[Amw66]

Excellent article
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21P1VF?__twitter_impression=true

 

[wigglethemouse]

Having had about forty years of experience of using antibody tests this comes as no surprise. The only interpretable tests are done in pairs two weeks apart using the same testing plate and a control. The next major debacle I suspect will be the realisation that nobody has been taking paired sera so even when a reliable test comes along most people who have had the virus cannot be reliably tested. The incompetence of what is going on would have horrified my mother if she were in a position to give an opinion.

This article about one of the first antibody testing trials in the US mentions testing two weeks apart
https://www.theatlantic.com/science...s-tests-everyone-tiny-colorado-county/608590/

San Miguel County is still figuring out exactly how to get the tests to 8,000 people across 1,300 square miles. Ideally, residents would get voluntarily tested twice, two weeks apart, which doubles the logistical challenge.

 

[ahimsa]

Every country needs a pandemic response system, which includes protective equipment and possibly ventilators.

Yes, and also a leader who will follow the advice contained in it.

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1245720391168995329

 

[Hutan]

The Spinoff has good coverage of New Zealand's Covid news. Things are looking quite promising. Two weeks into lock-down (Stage 4), probably two weeks to go. We were fortunate to have time to observe what was happening in other countries.

 

[AliceLily]

I'm feeling a bit less anxious now especially since our government (NZ) is stepping up on quarantine. Two weeks into lockdown and we now have the lowest number of new cases since the start of lockdown.

Considering the number of New Zealanders that returned home the spread could have been a lot worse.

 

[AliceLily]

Only thing I would add is wearing masks in public. The more possible breaks in the transmission chain, the better.

I totally agree @Sean I would like to see everyone wearing a mask when out walking. Very few do. Many do wear a mask while going into a dairy and the supermarket but I think it would help greatly if we add the mask as another preventative to at least try to beat this thing as much as we possibly can.

 

[lunarainbows]

Excellent article
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21P1VF?__twitter_impression=true

"We had milder interventions in place," said Edmunds, because no one thought it would be acceptable politically "to shut the country down." He added: "We didn't model it because it didn't seem to be on the agenda. And Imperial (College) didn't look at it either."

So as thought, it was always a political decision.

Still, without a vaccine or effective treatments, it's going to be hard to avoid a substantial part of the British population getting infected, said Edmunds.

Why is it hard? Other countries have shown it’s possible.

"Until you get to a vaccine, there is no way of getting out of this without certainly tens of thousands of deaths," he said. "And probably more than that."

What worries me about reading this article is the sense of complacency about the govt’s advisers, still. And the lack of any solid plan. There’s nothing anywhere in that article about attempting to eliminate the virus completely in the long term or to get case numbers and deaths down as low as possible. It’s only still about:

All we know is that unless we stop transmission now, the health service will collapse. Yep, that's the only thing we know for sure."

 

[FMMM1]

I happened to listen to Newsnight (BBC2) last night and they re-broadcast a clip of the earlier Coronavirus press conference. Chris Whitty, in response to a question from Robert Peston, said something along these lines:
"we all know that Germany got ahead in terms of its ability to do testing"
[ - about 12 minutes 40 seconds in]

So that seems to indicate a change i.e. need to move to testing (and tracing?) --- lets hope they are organising it! No small task, Germany are currently doing roughly 500K (PCR) tests/week, correcting for UKs smaller population, that's 400K for UK + Germany proposes to increase its testing!

The UK is roughly the 6th largest economy in the world so it should be able to deliver testing on this scale + it means that things start getting back to normal (ish) for most people. For a lot of the rest of us I think "normal" might be post vaccine --- whenever that is!

 

[Jonathan Edwards]

What worries me about reading this article is the sense of complacency about the govt’s advisers, still. And the lack of any solid plan. There’s nothing anywhere in that article about attempting to eliminate the virus completely in the long term or to get case numbers and deaths down as low as possible. It’s only still about:

I suspect that the current approach will continue until European and American governments see places like China and New Zealand roaring back into economic growth having blocked all air traffic - except to other countries that have eliminated the virus. Only then will the UK and the US ee how far behind the economic curve they are - going off in the wrong direction.

 

[Jonathan Edwards]

I was thinking of a bit of a paradox about the non-essential.

Governments seem to be driven by the idea that older people are non-essential to 'the economy' and so may have to be sacrificed to keep the (?essential) economy going.

Yet when it comes to lock down all essential services continue - what is shut down is the non-essential - although that seems to be 'the economy'.

 

[Woolie]

Today's results from NZ (comparing NZ to others at the corresponding timepoint). I added in Australia, looks like you guys are turning this around too:

 

[spinoza577]

I was thinking of a bit of a paradox about the non-essential.
...
Yet when it comes to lock down all essential services continue - what is shut down is the non-essential - although that seems to be 'the economy'.

Economy does not distinguish between essential and non-essential. It is simply a sort of acting with units of money.

I am afraid we are still quite a bit away from doing what we want, and will be thrown into what we can (or not can). In Italy and Spain there are already problems for some people with money and food.

If you block the trade, you will loose some prosperity, probably especially in rich countries. - So the virus might be a chance to focus somehow on more essential things in general.

 

[Marco]

How Europe failed the coronavirus test

Contagion’s spread is a story of complacency, overconfidence and lack of preparation.

https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-europe-failed-the-test/

Makes a change from the usual self-flagellation.

 

[Marco]

I suspect that the current approach will continue until European and American governments see places like China and New Zealand roaring back into economic growth having blocked all air traffic - except to other countries that have eliminated the virus. Only then will the UK and the US ee how far behind the economic curve they are - going off in the wrong direction.

You would think?

Brussels drops lockdown exit plan after anger from capitals

Governments force Commission into U-turn over fears it was moving too quickly.

The European Commission was forced by angry EU governments on Tuesday to drop plans to present a "roadmap" for ending the coronavirus lockdowns.

Governments made clear that the plans from President Ursula von der Leyen's Commission would send a dangerous signal when they are still urging millions of citizens to stay at home to save lives.

https://www.politico.eu/article/com...gy-as-countries-push-to-lift-corona-measures/

 

[FMMM1]

I suspect that the current approach will continue until European and American governments see places like China and New Zealand roaring back into economic growth having blocked all air traffic - except to other countries that have eliminated the virus. Only then will the UK and the US ee how far behind the economic curve they are - going off in the wrong direction.

I agree, once you can see other countries returning to something closer to normal then pressure should increase on the policy folks (Government) --- if they can make this happen then why cant we? I assume it will also be difficult for the Government to come up with counter arguments --- how do you say something cannot be done if country X, Y --- are already doing it? Mind you they are masters at this!

 

[Jonathan Edwards]

Brussels drops lockdown exit plan after anger from capitals

I may be wrong but this looks to me like quibbling over when you can reduce lockdown and 'get away with it'. States are closer to reality than the EU bureaucracy. I have not heard any states declare that they intend to eradicate as in China. Maybe some do intend to but in continental Europe I would have thought that needs to be explicit because border are porous.

 

[spinoza577]

I had a quick look at some new death numbers on the worldometer, there might be a tendency of a plateau, apart from the USA though.

Also Japan might show an elevation, on a low level of numbers though.
Korea has low new corona deaths but quite constant ones.
China might be similar (apart from that it had been reported high deaths in feb.)
Most visible is a plateau in Iran since March 17th. New cases are declining since March 31th.
In Czechia a plateau might be seen since March 25th. New cases decline since say Mach 28th.


Although I don´t want to say that the virus doesn´t cause special corona deaths, and although different strategies have been implemented, this might not reflect a very dynamic situation either.

 

[Barry]

Today's results from NZ (comparing NZ to others at the corresponding timepoint). I added in Australia, looks like you guys are turning this around too:View attachment 10489

Seems like the Kiwis' government-appointed experts are better than most other countries' government-appointed experts. And I imagine to be handling it this well the NZ government must actually be heeding and acting on the advice of said experts. Maybe the NZ experts are appointed because of ... well ... their expertise.

 

[alex3619]

China and New Zealand roaring back into economic growth having blocked all air traffic - except to other countries that have eliminated the virus.

I think this is moderately likely. The USA and UK are likely to become isolated, with limited economic opportunity, and restricted travel. However, while air travel will be restricted, cargo transport by ship should not be impacted much, which means that supply chains should function.