Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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Mij said:
How do we explain reports out of South Korea that recovered COVID patients are testing positive again?
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“We say that a patient has fully recovered when he or she tests negative twice within 24 hours. But the fact that some of them tested positive again in a short period means that the virus remains longer than we thought,” Son Young-rae, a spokesman for the health and welfare ministry, told the Financial Times. The surprise positive tests occurred between two days and two weeks after patients had been released from quarantine. Some had shown symptoms such as fevers and respiratory difficulties, while others were asymptomatic, officials said.
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Jerome Kim, an immunology expert and director-general of the International Vaccine Institute, said experts did not yet have a definitive understanding of Covid-19 and that changes might be required in how health officials assess patient recoveries. “There are just some things that we don’t know,” Dr Kim said. “Often when virus infections are waning, you will have intermittent positivity and negativity, particularly at the limit of detection . . . Maybe for infected people the government is going to need to look at that data, and say ‘we need two negative tests or three negative tests in a row over a week’.”
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https://www.ft.com/content/44a40fcf-d641-46b2-a69e-46420ffb4933
 
In the Cadwalladr video posted by @Sasha - Dr Bharat Pankhania says that people "should not be dying alone" the "UK is a wealthy country".
Happened to watch a program last night, on the affect of the pandemic on a hospital in Lombardy. The had managed to make arrangements to have a small number of people with those who were dying - so it can be done.

@Invisible Woman
 
FMMM1 said:
Happened to watch a program last night, on the affect of the pandemic on a hospital in Lombardy. The had managed to make arrangements to have a small number of people with those who were dying - so it can be done.
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Not sure why you tagged me? My relative is dying, but was hospitalised for an additional & probably related emergency. Nothing to do with corona virus. However, due to corona virus restrictions in the hospital she can't have visitors. They couldn't even send in her kindle or mobile phone charger. Luckily someone already there has charged the phone for her.

There are lots of people who do not have corona virus are very ill and suffering in hospitals right now & doing so alone because of the restrictions needed to control the spread of corona virus within the hospitals themselves.

Edit - I'm not criticising hospitals for this. Just stating this is how it is.
 
lunarainbows said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52232147

Coronavirus: Should the world worry about Singapore's virus surge?
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Good advice from Prof Dale Fisher (chair of the WHO's Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network and a professor at the National University of Singapore):

But for a lockdown to be effective, he says, three things need to happen. Firstly for transmission to stop - which will happen if everyone stays home. Then the healthcare system needs the time and space to recover - for beds to be freed up, and medical staff to be able to take time off.

"Third is to get all systems in place - all isolation facilities, quarantine capacity, laws, contact tracing.

"If you just do one and two and then you reopen, history is going to repeat," he warns.
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But for a lockdown to be effective, he says, three things need to happen. Firstly for transmission to stop - which will happen if everyone stays home. Then the healthcare system needs the time and space to recover - for beds to be freed up, and medical staff to be able to take time off.
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Then they should also be revisiting how people convalesce and consider convalescence homes.
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
I see now that Spain may be going to ease some restrictions. That is not going to look good. The new infection rate has stabilised just below peak. It would be crazy to lift restrictions at this point
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Norway too, at the end of april. Denmark as well, after easter. We'll see how this goes. We are still adviced to work from home if possible, and the restrictions lifted are that kindergarden and schools (1.-4. grade) is opening up, and also some services like hairdressers and physiotherapists. Universities are also opening up fascilities for those students and employees that MUST have access to complete their degrees this spring, and the rest of us will be studying/working from home still.

I have not read alot in this thread, so I'm not sure if Scandinavian countries have been discussed.

Edit: our replication number was at 0.7 when this was decided if I remember correctly.
 
Czechia and Austria are as well on the road.

Czechia and Austria with masks (Czechia probably more restrictive than Austria, here only in supermarkets and buses asf. I think),

Austria keeps schools closed but wants to reopen some gastronomy,
whereas Denmark wants to reopen schools, I don´t know about restaurants asf.

In Germany there is at least some discussion, here Chancellor Merkel stays on the hard line.
 
Doesn’t it seem far too early to lift lockdown in these countries? What measures are in place to reduce resurgence? China was far far stricter with their lockdown and still had a lockdown of 2 months in Wuhan, and even then, they’ve had to be very careful when re-opening. I haven’t been closely following what’s happening in China recently but I’m sure they had to close things after opening them again after a resurgence of the virus in places.
 
Sasha said:
What lockdown measures did China take that we are not taking in the UK now?
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I wrote this post a while ago on this topic, after some research.

https://www.s4me.info/threads/coronavirus-worldwide-spread-and-control.13287/page-67#post-246451

Edit: most (all?) of that - the UK is not doing. Only thing maybe in common is the closing of all shops except food + pharmacies. Although i think would have been stricter in China. We do have some school closures, however some are still remaining open for key workers.
 
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Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020
Research
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
Steven Sanche1, Yen Ting Lin1, Chonggang Xu, Ethan Romero-Severson, Nick Hengartner, and Ruian Ke
Author affiliations: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
Suggested citation for this article

Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
 
BurnA said:
Here is a detailed account of life in China under quarantine, compare it to the UK.

"If you open your front door we'll call the police"
https://www.rte.ie/amp/1127028/
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Wow.

And yet we are all opening our front doors and clapping & cheering at 8pm every Thursday... I watched a clip on tv of people in a row of houses (terraced) all standing at their doors... it's lovely & all, wonderful, but every set of 2 houses the doors are 1ft away from each other so the 2mtre distance cannot possibl be observed... surely that must be spreading things, especially if some of them isolating due to symptoms.
 
JemPD said:
Wow.

And yet we are all opening our front doors and clapping & cheering at 8pm every Thursday... I watched a clip on tv of people in a row of houses (terraced) all standing at their doors... it's lovely & all, wonderful, but every set of 2 houses the doors are 1ft away from each other so the 2mtre distance cannot possibl be observed... surely that must be spreading things, especially if some of them isolating due to symptoms.
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Same in my block of flats. It’s ridiculous. Our balconies are attached together so if my neighbour (not that he’s actually in the house right now), was to stand at his balcony, and my mum was to stand in hers - def less than 2m distance. But people were doing that last night. Or imagine hundreds of people (all in my block of flats) deciding to go outside at the same time to clap - where would they stand? And all of them using the same doors lift etc. This every Thursday. Saw this, this morning, and just despaired:

 
Talk of small reopenings has me wondering about a large number of people that have put off the doctor, hospital, pharmacy, radiologist for a few weeks, but for whose problems are growing increasingly problematic or annoying. Myself included, I've been realizing I've been telling myself I'll be getting things looked at in a few weeks, but that's not realistic really. Would an ease-off while covid is about, even if in low numbers, result in a surge of use of these services once again followed by the virus spreading?
 
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