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Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

Discussion in 'Epidemics (including Covid-19, not Long Covid)' started by Patient4Life, Jan 20, 2020.

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  1. Ebb Tide

    Ebb Tide Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    Article from BBC website on new report:

    How did coronavirus spread across Scotland?

    "A new report has shed light on how coronavirus first spread across Scotland, with suggestions the virus could have been spreading in the community before the first cases were confirmed."

    Link to pdf preprint within the article

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52980669
     
    Ebb Tide, Jun 10, 2020
    #3281
    MeSci, Simbindi and JaneL like this.
  2. Jonathan Edwards

    Jonathan Edwards Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    Sorry, my sentence should read:

    Just this week I have got interested in the drop off in numbers (in terms of the emerging shape of the curve, which is going flat).
     
    Jonathan Edwards, Jun 10, 2020
    #3282
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  3. JemPD

    JemPD Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    JemPD, Jun 10, 2020
    #3283
    Saz94 and lunarainbows like this.
  4. Sly Saint

    Sly Saint Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    makes me think of the Deer Hunter russian roulette scene
    Code:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuGSXflBoWU
     
    Sly Saint, Jun 10, 2020
    #3284
    JemPD likes this.
  5. lunarainbows

    lunarainbows Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    Every time I read articles about kids and schools I get more annoyed. Why does it matter how minuscule the threat to children is (and they’re ignoring the severe illness that can occur anyway)? Do these children all live on their own in some kind of children only colony and feed & look after each other?! No they all live with parents / guardians / families / relatives .. who they will then pass the virus onto... and it will then circulate in the community :rolleyes:

    it’s like the whole “protective ring” around the elderly and vulnerable again..Thinking of everything in isolation.. it didn’t work because elderly and vulnerable people very often live with or rely on carers who will infect them!
     
    lunarainbows, Jun 10, 2020
    #3285
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  6. Adrian

    Adrian Administrator Staff Member

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    The way I would think about it is there are all these different ways that people interact each with different chances of spreading the virus and where different amounts of the population take part. The spread will then be a function of the numbers of infected people doing each of the activities along with the overall numbers involve and the spread characteristics. That is how I would attempt to go about modelling spread although I've no idea where any data to support a model would come from.

    The lockdown clearly reduced some spread paths (I wonder which bits made a difference - I suspect mass gatherings but also people in workplaces where they are close or the aircon could move the virus around). The mass gatherings may be interesting - initially outdoor mass gatherings such as the liverpool madrid match were dismissed as a concern since they were outside but the fact that people were also travelling, staying in hotels, meeting in bars and resturants in more enclosed spaces was forgotten.

    I think as the lockdown started its clear that having a health and care sector without proper equipment will have encouraged spread and provided a hub to distribute spread back to families and the community.

    The slow tail off suggests that some of these spreading activities are happening - but I've no idea what - I suspect an analysis of the cases that are still coming it could be very informative but I don't see any sign of the government really collecting and using data in a way that could be useful. Data like this from a track and trace system could also be really useful in terms of understanding where spread is most likely - but that again means really collecting data and having the ability to analyze it and an interest in using it.
     
    Adrian, Jun 10, 2020
    #3286
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  7. JemPD

    JemPD Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    Interesting article about virus was seeding in UK...

    "Coronavirus was brought into the UK on at least 1,300 separate occasions, a major analysis of the genetics of the virus shows."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734

    What amazes me is how "surprised" the scientists were about it being brought in so many times. Surely that was pretty obvious? I know I kept telling people that's what was happening(& they kept telling me not to be alarmist), but I have no expertise whatever... it's not rocket science is it?!
    I don't understand how anyone could fail to grasp that if you send a bunch of teenagers on a half term ski trip to a virus hit region, that at least some of them will bring it back.     ​
     
    JemPD, Jun 10, 2020
    #3287
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  8. Andy

    Andy Committee Member

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    Andy, Jun 10, 2020
    #3288
    Saz94, lunarainbows, JemPD and 1 other person like this.
  9. Andy

    Andy Committee Member

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    This provides a bit more context to that sound bite.
    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-death-toll-half-earlier-lockdown-neil-ferguson-150750050.html
     
    Andy, Jun 10, 2020
    #3289
    lunarainbows, JemPD and JaneL like this.
  10. Jonathan Edwards

    Jonathan Edwards Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    As far as I can see the SAGE people are all gradually finding ways to say 'we should have locked down at least a week earlier' without saying 'we should have locked down at least a week earlier'. Except of course Vallance and Whitty, who are the fall guys. It was their summary that provided the science according to the government.
     
    Jonathan Edwards, Jun 10, 2020
    #3290
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  11. Andy

    Andy Committee Member

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    Andy, Jun 10, 2020
    #3291
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  12. BurnA

    BurnA Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    Have you been watching today's press conference. Interesting how Boris and Vallance both dodged the question about what would they do differently, Whitty said he had a long list but better testing earlier would be top, but none of them commented on an earlier lockdown even when it was put directly to them.
     
    BurnA, Jun 10, 2020
    #3292
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  13. Jonathan Edwards

    Jonathan Edwards Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    I can't be bothered with that. I thought the WHO chaps gave some good advice - like you are not wanting to have any foreign holidays this summer. Or any foreign visitors. So quarantine seems a bit academic.
     
    Jonathan Edwards, Jun 10, 2020
    #3293
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  14. Andy

    Andy Committee Member

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    Andy, Jun 10, 2020
    #3294
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  15. BurnA

    BurnA Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    Better than the advice from the UN then.

    BBC News - Coronavirus: Restart tourism to beat virus, says United Nations
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52997197
     
    BurnA, Jun 10, 2020
    #3295
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  16. Jonathan Edwards

    Jonathan Edwards Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    Jonathan Edwards, Jun 10, 2020
    #3296
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  17. lunarainbows

    lunarainbows Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    lunarainbows, Jun 11, 2020
    #3297
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  18. Simbindi

    Simbindi Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    And they seem to have completely ignored the nations 700,000 plus 'young carers' (my own daughter had to start doing caring work to help me from the age of 7):

    https://youngminds.org.uk/find-help...s that there,chores than other children would.

    I admit as someone whose be involved with a lot of these youngsters (in education, mentoring and youth work as well as the personal family link) I am a little sensitive about the lack of support they get, even in normal times. However, it's like they and their vulnerable family members suddenly don't even exist now.
     
    Simbindi, Jun 11, 2020
    #3298
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  19. Woolie

    Woolie Senior Member

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    Me neither. If you want visitors from overseas, the best way of drawing them back would be to present the UK as a safe place to visit. Maybe they're only thinking about the local tourist market.
     
    Woolie, Jun 12, 2020
    #3299
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  20. Andy

    Andy Committee Member

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    Now is not the time to sacrifice public health at the altar of ‘the economy’
    https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ou...ce-public-health-at-the-altar-of-the-economy/
     
    Andy, Jun 12, 2020
    #3300
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