Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

[spinoza577]

But the excess mortality seems to have gone down to normal in the UK nations (despite that covid-19 deaths have not that much, according to wikipedia):

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#map-of-z-scores


In all participating countries together the excess mortality over the year might not be higher or much higher than in other bad years, though England looks indeed especially bad.

 

[lunarainbows]

Beijing has partially locked down again after 45 new cases (out of 517 people tested), and gone into emergency mode:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...y-mode-after-spike-in-covid-19-cases-12005803

Meanwhile in england we had ~1500 new cases today, just like yesterday and the day before, and.. nah that’s cool.. just keep opening things up, all non essential shops open, drive anywhere you want as far away as you want, lockdowns basically ended, we’re probably going to open up pubs in a few weeks..oh and the true number of cases is much higher but we are just not identifying and tracing those, we don’t have any workable tracing scheme up and running or tell you how many people we’ve tested for the past 2 weeks either

 

[Andy]

There is a school of thought that says now is not the time to criticise the government and its scientific advisers about the way they have handled the Covid-19 pandemic. Wait until all the facts are known and the crisis has subsided, goes this thinking, and then we can analyse the performance of those involved. It’s safe to say that Richard Horton, the editor of the influential medical journal the Lancet, is not part of this school.

An outspoken critic of what he sees as the medical science establishment’s acquiescence to government, he has written a book that he calls a “reckoning” for the “missed opportunities and appalling misjudgments” here and abroad that have led to “the avoidable deaths of tens of thousands of citizens”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...atest-science-policy-failure-for-a-generation

 

[lunarainbows]

Feeling really worried today about the shops all opening up in England. Looked outside and the big shops outside in the complex had queues around it & lots of people all standing by their cars and even by mid afternoon the queue was still there. I don’t understand people... it’s all been available online from the beginning you know. And then talking about the 2m rule about to be relaxed. Not a peep about eradication. I feel very scared that things are about to go from bad to worse

 

[AliceLily]

You'd think we (NZ) would have gotten quarantine right by now, but no, we have 2 new cases today after weeks of no cases. Compassionate leave was granted two sisters to leave quarantine 6 days after arriving from the UK (high risk for the virus) to travel one end of the North Island to the other by car. Told not to stop on the way - I don't know how you can go that distance without a toilet stop.

We are in the midst of a worldwide pandemic that is killing hundreds of thousands. This isn't the time for compassionate leave from early quarantine putting the lives of the rest of the country at risk.

 

[Sean]

We are going to learn the hard way. Australia is about to make the same mistake.

It is elimination with quarantined borders, or endless waves. There is no alternative until we have a vaccine.

 

[lunarainbows]

According to the Covid symptom tracker app:
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map

Their estimate is 4900 new cases in the U.K. today, excluding care homes. Highest cases per million in North East & Yorkshire.

 

[lunarainbows]

We are going to learn the hard way. Australia is about to make the same mistake.

It is elimination with quarantined borders, or endless waves. There is no alternative until we have a vaccine.

Does Australia not have quarantine for all international travellers?

 

[Sean]

Does Australia not have quarantine for all international travellers?

Not normally. Though depends where you are coming from.

The government is talking about fully opening the internal economy while we still have active cases, and partially reopening the borders (in a not particularly safe way).

They still think they can negotiate a compromise with a virus.

 

[MeSci]

I went into town today for a prescription and other essentials, and was astonished to find that I was almost the only person wearing a mask!

 

[Wonko]

They do appear to be under the impression that they can conduct a genocide (of the virus) without killing anyone.

I await the omelette recipe where they manage to cook one without breaking any eggs.

Of course, to people who believe they can both have their cake, and eat it, this should be easy.

It's simply a matter of reclassifying the ownership of a proportion of the cake, dealing with an epidemic is clearly the very same thing.

Viruses both understand, and pay, taxes - right?

 

[Robert 1973]

Epidemiologist Ian Lipkin: Are we getting the pandemic response right?
BBC HARDTALK

Podcast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cszc1x

iplayer (TV): https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episo...n-epidemiologist-columbia-university-new-york

Blurb:

“All of us fervently want to believe the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is over. Governments around the world are easing lockdowns and focusing on economic recovery. But Covid-19 hasn’t gone away. Infection rates are rising in Latin America, parts of the US and Africa. HARDtalk’s Stephen Sackur speaks to the internationally renowned epidemiologist Ian Lipkin, the scientific advisor for the movie Contagion which, nine years ago, predicted a scenario uncannily like this one. Are we getting the real-life pandemic response right?”

 

[Hoopoe]

More evidence that the coronavirus was already circulating in Italy in December.

40 waste water samples from different cities collected between October and February were compared to control waste water samples from June 2019 and earlier. Samples were tested by two different labs using different methods. Samples from Milan and Turin from mid December were positive, as well as samples from Bologna from early January.

https://torino.repubblica.it/cronac...ircolava_molto_prima_degli_allarmi-259573895/

 

[Woolie]

You'd think we (NZ) would have gotten quarantine right by now, but no, we have 2 new cases today after weeks of no cases. Compassionate leave was granted two sisters to leave quarantine 6 days after arriving from the UK (high risk for the virus) to travel one end of the North Island to the other by car. Told not to stop on the way - I don't know how you can go that distance without a toilet stop.

We are in the midst of a worldwide pandemic that is killing hundreds of thousands. This isn't the time for compassionate leave from early quarantine putting the lives of the rest of the country at risk.

I see the British media has really leapt on this. Yes, it is very bad, and yes, the people who let these folks in should be thoroughly walloped. But no, its not "causing us to rethink our strategy" (except to make sure the rules are enforced), and no, it isn't an argument for just letting the virus rip, because hey, see, you can't keep it out forever.

Maybe, if those two have infected enough people for the virus to spread unfettered, then people can say "I told you so". But that does not appear to have happened as of yet.

 

[Andy]

I see the British media has really leapt on this. Yes, it is very bad, and yes, the people who let these folks in should be thoroughly walloped. But no, its not "causing us to rethink our strategy" (except to make sure the rules are enforced), and no, it isn't an argument for just letting the virus rip, because hey, see, you can't keep it out forever.

Maybe, if those two have infected enough people for the virus to spread unfettered, then people can say "I told you so". But that does not appear to have happened as of yet.

The media coverage I've seen is that it's proof that our poor efforts are putting the better efforts elsewhere at risk, but then my media bubble will always be critical of the current government.

 

[Wits_End]

And boy, is it being critical Someone has to be.

Anyway, to contribute something, not from Andy's media bubble by any stretch of the imagination:

Coronavirus has downgraded from a "tiger to a wild cat" and could die out on its own without a vaccine, an infectious diseases specialist has claimed.

Prof Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the Policlinico San Martino hospital in Italy, told The Telegraph that Covid-19 has been losing its virulence in the last month and patients who would have previously died are now recovering.

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...specialist/ar-BB15KuRo?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=ASUDHP

While I'd love to believe that was true, I really don't know?

But this one is distinctly worrying:

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...to-179-rki/ar-BB15L7ID?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=ASUDHP

"Germany's coronavirus reproduction rate jumps to 1.79 - RKI

[...] Since case numbers in Germany are generally low, these outbreaks have a relatively strong influence on the value of the reproduction number," RKI said. "A nationwide increase in case numbers is not anticipated."

 

[Amw66]

Good website for graphs
https://www.iancampbell.co.uk/covid-19.php

 

[Wonko]

Unbelievable.

I've just watched a live broadcast of a 2 minute silence being held in Reading (UK) after a stabbing incident. (BBC 10.00am)

A closely packed crowd, with police as members of the crowd, standing packed shoulder to shoulder, with no masks - when people are supposed to be social distancing.

 

[Kitty]

While I'd love to believe that was true, I really don't know?

Some researchers have predicted that this will happen, but the virus is being so successful at the moment that – presumably – there isn't much pressure on it to evolve to be less likely to kill its hosts?

 

[MeSci]

Good website for graphs
https://www.iancampbell.co.uk/covid-19.php

But of course, like most news broadcasts, the main page doesn't mention the populations, so the percentages of cases are very hard to work out.

If you click on 'rate per 10 million people' further down it is much clearer.