Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

Do we have any local UK prevalence figures that we trust?

I've been shielding since March but my boiler's annual service is due and I'm worried that if I leave it until winter, there'll be more coronavirus about.

 

Leading German Economist on Corona Policies “The Virus Must Be Contained Before the Economy Can Recover”

https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...ecover-a-652a4098-ad44-4fb1-a2e2-a46776d56217

 

I'm wondering if they are now including pillar 2 cases in the number of confirmed infections now. It seems impossible to tell if figures released include community testing data as well - it never seems to say. Does anybody know whether the figs released by PHE are inc pillar 2 now or not. Someone i know said she thought they were after the Leicester debacle, but my local paper is saying "PHE report a further 2days with no new cases in our area".... wondering how reliable that is?

 

I have not seen any indication that testing gives a meaningful indication of the real number of people infected.
I work on the basis that mortality is probably about 1% and may be falling if the proportion of care home cases is less. The number of deaths lags by maybe three weeks but has plateaued so it looks as if the number of people getting infected each day will be something like 100x80 = 8000 in the UK. I am working on the basis that people are on average only wandering around infectious for a day. That is too small but there are offsetting factors that make me think it may be a reasonable working estimate.

The number of positive tests may at least give some indication of trends. If testing increased around May-June then we ought to be seeing a bigger ratio of tests positive to deaths than we are and I don't understand that. I strongly suspect that testing is mostly directed at the wrong people for actually picking up cases as a whole. It may be directed at people for whom testing is personally important though (care home workers).

It looks to me as is the rate of infection in the general community has been rather much the same since March, with the big peak due to hospital cross infection, care homes and hot spots where housing or transport conditions favour spread. It is sobering that the case rate is the same as on the day of lockdown in March. On the other hand it may be that what we are seeing now is more pocketed because of people being careful on public transport etc. The lack of useful information from government is extraordinary.

My guess is that the main problems just now are going to be outbreaks of tens of people from pub nights and maybe hundreds from people going back to factory work. I strongly suspect that after a brief honeymoon period old fashioned pub practice is going to disappear again for at least a year.

 

This is UK specific, but it wouldn't surprise me if similar occurs worldwide with crop pickers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-53381802

 

Grow your own lettuce maybe.

 

Opinion piece by 23 researchers in the Swedish newspaper Göteborgs-Posten, questioning the Swedish strategy and herd immunity:

Vad är Folkhälsomyndigheten egentligen ute efter?
https://www.gp.se/debatt/vad-är-folkhälsomyndigheten-egentligen-ute-efter-1.31088225

 

People living in crowded mobile homes is probably the main factor (after the pickers arrive from their flights). Additionally, if the farm hasn't been strict on the social distancing when packing in the barns and warehouses, that will be an issue.

 

Copied post

In that case, might it not invalidate the warranty on it if it's new?


Getting back to the original topic, I suppose this probably belongs here - Urgent parliamentary enquiry into the UK Government's handling of the pandemic, presumably with the aim of rectifying errors before a potential upsurge next winter:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...of-coronavirus-crisis/ar-BB16E2ZS?ocid=ientp2

 

NZ is still clear. No cases outside of quarantine (and quarantine escapees!).

 

Winter COVID-19 outbreak in UK could be worse than first peak and cause 120,000 deaths, scientists warn
(seems like a worst-case scenario)

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...tists-warn/ar-BB16Hh9k?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ASUDHP

Coronavirus pandemic could get ‘worse and worse’, WHO chief warns

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...hief-warns/ar-BB16H5PY?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=ASUDHP

 

Moved from this thread

@anciendaze My anxiety levels were going through the roof when we (NZ) had our highest number of new cases (around 140) back in March. We have been very fortunate to have someone like our PM Jacinda Ardern in power and Director General of Health who have contained the virus early. I hope you can stay as safe as possible. Really feel for everyone in America.

Nice to see you popping in again.

 

I agree, that was just baffling to read!
Chance?? More like incompetence.

 

As I recall New Zealand is a nation, and as I just learned it is the only part of the continent Zealandia above water.

You, and a bunch of Aussies, have little to freak out about. Florida, which was not a separate nation or continent last time I checked, had 15,300 new cases on Sunday, to add to our previous quarter million. Orange County, where I and a famous mouse live, had 1,371 new cases. The governor just repeated yesterday that he thinks we are "flattening the curve". Here are two curves he might be talking about: a curve of weekly new cases for the state, and a curve of daily cases for Orange County.

 

Extremely concerning
https://twitter.com/user/status/1283123889275580416

 

And...how do they plan to enforce this? What's to stop hospitals from just ignoring this directive and giving CDC the info anyway?

ETA: Here's a WaPo story explaining this change in reporting, "[HHS general counsel Robert P.] Charrow was asked whether this course of action was legally viable, and he replied that the Cares Act, a coronavirus relief package adopted by Congress early in the spring, may be 'broad enough to permit us to request this information from each hospital on a daily basis,'"

 

Some positives but more negatives in the USA:

If you want to know why coronavirus is spiking in the US, compare Florida with Illinois

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...florida-with-illinois/ar-BB16Jzm6?ocid=ASUDHP

Four urgent changes Boris Johnson needs to make to prevent major COVID-19 death toll in winter

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...-death-toll-in-winter/ar-BB16Jepy?ocid=ASUDHP

Meanwhile, the number of Covid-19-related deaths recorded in the UK is likely to hit 45,000 in the next 24 hours.

 

We went through a similar wrestling match over data here in Florida, with bad consequences. We only started to get official data on hospitalizations last Friday. There were months of lawsuits before the state published data from long-term care facilities, where half the deaths took place. We still get no official data on jails and prisons, which could be super-spreading centers.