Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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Do we have any local UK prevalence figures that we trust?

I've been shielding since March but my boiler's annual service is due and I'm worried that if I leave it until winter, there'll be more coronavirus about.
 
I'm wondering if they are now including pillar 2 cases in the number of confirmed infections now. It seems impossible to tell if figures released include community testing data as well - it never seems to say. Does anybody know whether the figs released by PHE are inc pillar 2 now or not. Someone i know said she thought they were after the Leicester debacle, but my local paper is saying "PHE report a further 2days with no new cases in our area".... wondering how reliable that is?
 
I have not seen any indication that testing gives a meaningful indication of the real number of people infected.
I work on the basis that mortality is probably about 1% and may be falling if the proportion of care home cases is less. The number of deaths lags by maybe three weeks but has plateaued so it looks as if the number of people getting infected each day will be something like 100x80 = 8000 in the UK. I am working on the basis that people are on average only wandering around infectious for a day. That is too small but there are offsetting factors that make me think it may be a reasonable working estimate.

The number of positive tests may at least give some indication of trends. If testing increased around May-June then we ought to be seeing a bigger ratio of tests positive to deaths than we are and I don't understand that. I strongly suspect that testing is mostly directed at the wrong people for actually picking up cases as a whole. It may be directed at people for whom testing is personally important though (care home workers).

It looks to me as is the rate of infection in the general community has been rather much the same since March, with the big peak due to hospital cross infection, care homes and hot spots where housing or transport conditions favour spread. It is sobering that the case rate is the same as on the day of lockdown in March. On the other hand it may be that what we are seeing now is more pocketed because of people being careful on public transport etc. The lack of useful information from government is extraordinary.

My guess is that the main problems just now are going to be outbreaks of tens of people from pub nights and maybe hundreds from people going back to factory work. I strongly suspect that after a brief honeymoon period old fashioned pub practice is going to disappear again for at least a year.
 
Opinion piece by 23 researchers in the Swedish newspaper Göteborgs-Posten, questioning the Swedish strategy and herd immunity:

Vad är Folkhälsomyndigheten egentligen ute efter?
https://www.gp.se/debatt/vad-är-folkhälsomyndigheten-egentligen-ute-efter-1.31088225
Google Translate said:
What is the Swedish Public Health Authority really after? The issue becomes increasingly important as the number of infected and dead grows, but the strategy remains the same

Sweden is one of the countries with the highest reported covid-19 deaths per capita in the world. Nevertheless, the recommendations are unchanged. Although it is now completely clear that covid-19 is transmitted before symptoms - studies show that asymptomatic accounts for between 40 and 45 percent of the transmission of infections - it still says on the Public Health Authority's (FHM) website: “If a person in the family is ill - does everyone have to stay home then? No, as long as siblings or other family members have no symptoms, they can do as usual and go to school, preschool or work ”.

And despite the WHO now advocating the general use of masks, FHM refuses to introduce this simple measure.

How can one explain that a country that is so vulnerable sticks to demonstrably misguided recommendations?
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Kitty said:
If you don't live in rented housing, you could also choose to skip it this year if the boiler's in good nick and has been working well. I don't think it does much harm to miss one, specially if you have a carbon monoxide detector.
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Sasha said:
Thanks, @Kitty. I could choose to skip - the boiler was installed brand new last year
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In that case, might it not invalidate the warranty on it if it's new?


Getting back to the original topic, I suppose this probably belongs here - Urgent parliamentary enquiry into the UK Government's handling of the pandemic, presumably with the aim of rectifying errors before a potential upsurge next winter:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...of-coronavirus-crisis/ar-BB16E2ZS?ocid=ientp2
 
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Jonathan Edwards said:
I had previously predicted that the UK would probably get its act together around July after various other countries had made mistakes and shown how important adequate restriction and test and trace was. I think I may have been a couple of weeks ahead of reality. It looks from the news today as if the mistakes are just starting to snowball- Eastern Europe, Australia, even New Zealand... And the curves in the major western European countries are stubbornly failing to go to zero, presumably because of relaxations.
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NZ is still clear. No cases outside of quarantine (and quarantine escapees!).
 
Winter COVID-19 outbreak in UK could be worse than first peak and cause 120,000 deaths, scientists warn
(seems like a worst-case scenario)

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...tists-warn/ar-BB16Hh9k?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ASUDHP

Prof Stephen Holgate, a respiratory scientist who chaired the report, said: “This is not a prediction, but it is a possibility. The modelling suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of COVID-19 this winter, but the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately.

“With relatively low numbers of COVID-19 cases at the moment, this is a critical window of opportunity to help us prepare for the worst that winter can throw at us.”
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Coronavirus pandemic could get ‘worse and worse’, WHO chief warns

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...hief-warns/ar-BB16H5PY?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=ASUDHP

The coronavirus pandemic will worsen if governments fail to provide a clear and comprehensive strategy to suppress transmission, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned.

Director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday there would be “no return to the ‘old normal’ for the foreseeable future” and that “too many countries were headed in the wrong direction”.
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Moved from this thread

anciendaze said:
For those who don't know, I live in Florida, which just passed many nations in COVID-19 cases. Heck, Orange County alone has far more cases than the entire continent of Australia, which freaked out when they had a mere 318 cases in a day.

Did I mention that we just reopened Disney World?
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@anciendaze My anxiety levels were going through the roof when we (NZ) had our highest number of new cases (around 140) back in March. We have been very fortunate to have someone like our PM Jacinda Ardern in power and Director General of Health who have contained the virus early. I hope you can stay as safe as possible. Really feel for everyone in America.

Nice to see you popping in again.
 
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mango said:
This is from a paywalled article in one of Sweden's most well regarded newspapers, not a tabloid. Absolutely ridiculous :( Personally, I definitely don't agree with his claims/conclusions.

SvD: Carlson: Coronadrabbat Sverige var en slump
https://www.svd.se/carlson-coronadrabbat-sverige-var-en-slump



It was random, it got this bad by chance?! Nothing to do with the choices the Swedish government and the Publich Health Authority keep making, really?? o_O:banghead: Do they actually expect us to believe this BS? :mad:

There's a copy of the full text available here if you want to read it. Some more quotes:


For context, here are current stats published by Finland's national public broadcasting company. This is a screendump from July 8. The graph shows number of deaths over time. The table headings say "Country, Tests done, Confirmed cases, Deaths"
View attachment 11434

"It's random!" :grumpy: I can't help thinking it's starting to sound like America's 45... People are even making the same style of memes:

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I agree, that was just baffling to read!
Chance?? More like incompetence. :grumpy:
 
Rosie said:



@anciendaze My anxiety levels were going through the roof when we (NZ) had our highest number of new cases (around 140) back in March. We have been very fortunate to have someone like our PM Jacinda Ardern in power and Director General of Health who have contained the virus early. I hope you can stay as safe as possible. Really feel for everyone in America.

Nice to see you popping in again.
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As I recall New Zealand is a nation, and as I just learned it is the only part of the continent Zealandia above water.

You, and a bunch of Aussies, have little to freak out about. Florida, which was not a separate nation or continent last time I checked, had 15,300 new cases on Sunday, to add to our previous quarter million. Orange County, where I and a famous mouse live, had 1,371 new cases. The governor just repeated yesterday that he thinks we are "flattening the curve". Here are two curves he might be talking about: a curve of weekly new cases for the state, and a curve of daily cases for Orange County.
Florida_cases_13JUL2020.png Orange_daily_cases_13JUL2020.png
 
Amw66 said:
Extremely concerning
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And...how do they plan to enforce this? What's to stop hospitals from just ignoring this directive and giving CDC the info anyway?

ETA: Here's a WaPo story explaining this change in reporting, "[HHS general counsel Robert P.] Charrow was asked whether this course of action was legally viable, and he replied that the Cares Act, a coronavirus relief package adopted by Congress early in the spring, may be 'broad enough to permit us to request this information from each hospital on a daily basis,'"
 
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Some positives but more negatives in the USA:

If you want to know why coronavirus is spiking in the US, compare Florida with Illinois

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...florida-with-illinois/ar-BB16Jzm6?ocid=ASUDHP

The spike in cases is not just a result of more testing; percentage of positive tests has also been increasing. In the last month Arizona's positive test rate went from 12.7 percent to 26.8 percent; Florida's went from 4.1 percent to 19.1 percent.

While the infection rages out of control in Florida, Texas, and Arizona, though, other parts of the country have had real successes in fighting Covid. In particular, a quick, coordinated, and sustained response in my own state of Illinois has quietly but decidedly reduced case numbers and deaths.
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Four urgent changes Boris Johnson needs to make to prevent major COVID-19 death toll in winter

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...-death-toll-in-winter/ar-BB16Jepy?ocid=ASUDHP

Experts have told the government what steps it should take to prevent the grim possibility of 120,000 deaths in a coronavirus resurgence this winter.

Four policies have been set out by the Academy of Medical Sciences, which said the six-figure death toll could be reached over nine months in a worst case scenario if a second wave of hospital admissions takes place.
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Meanwhile, the number of Covid-19-related deaths recorded in the UK is likely to hit 45,000 in the next 24 hours.
 
Amw66 said:
Extremely concerning
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We went through a similar wrestling match over data here in Florida, with bad consequences. We only started to get official data on hospitalizations last Friday. There were months of lawsuits before the state published data from long-term care facilities, where half the deaths took place. We still get no official data on jails and prisons, which could be super-spreading centers.
 
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