Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

Ah, thanks. I guess that would explain much of it. I was trying to work out what had been done in the past couple of weeks which might account for it.

But they wouldn't have had time to develop CV-19 in the intervening days. Not to mention the fact that infection rates in London had been pretty much static for weeks, as far as I can see, so banning Londoners from travelling would have made no sense - unless you'd somehow managed to limit it to just the Covidiots.

 

We've had a surge in New Zealanders coming home and quarantine hotels reaching close to capacity. The government has put a hold on flights home for 3 weeks so we can better cope. All those who have already booked flights we be allowed to return but any new bookings will be delayed for three weeks. I think we have had over 25 thousand Kiwis return since the outbreak.

I live near some of the quarantine hotels and this afternoon while catching a bus to the supermarket there was someone on the bus with a huge suitcase. Those leaving quarantine should have tested negative before leaving but I still feel like I should be wearing a mask on the bus. Very few wear a mask now.

I see the state of Victoria in Australia is going into lockdown for six weeks. That's a good amount of time and should get control back as quickly as possible. I hope everyone there does their bit and stays in their own bubble.

 

There was a report, which I have not confirmed, that the viral genetics of the new cases is almost identical, implying one or a few superspreaders. That is all it takes to start it all over again.

 

BMJ: Covid-19: The inside story of the RECOVERY trial

“The UK has really delivered here,” says Martin Landray, deputy chief investigator of RECOVERY. “It involves hospitals from Truro to the Western Isles, Northern Ireland across to King’s Lynn. The patients have been fabulous: they were ill, frightened, alone, and elderly. The success is down to amazing teamwork across the clinical community and the incredible support of patients and their families.”

But global recognition and headlines also bring intense scrutiny. Alongside international praise RECOVERY has drawn criticisms from scientists about transparency and a worrying trend for announcing trial results by press release and without the underlying data.

 

I havn´t follow the thread anymore, I only occasionally looked at the wiki pages. Here a video on mortality data from Euromomo and some other ones. Although I think the virus is to be taken seriously, I can´t see any catastrophy. I also couldn´t see any clear evidence in favour of strong measures (and actually the sideeffects may turn out to be seroious enough).

It´s data. I still don´t understand why the EU and the WHO don´t make a summary of data, including the arrangement of lockdowns, as they can be empirically looked at. And also trying an explanation (a reasonable one) on differences seen (maybe initial viral loads).

Ivor Cummins:

Spoiler

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSKjcltDkng

 

This is from a paywalled article in one of Sweden's most well regarded newspapers, not a tabloid. Absolutely ridiculous Personally, I definitely don't agree with his claims/conclusions.

SvD: Carlson: Coronadrabbat Sverige var en slump
https://www.svd.se/carlson-coronadrabbat-sverige-var-en-slump

It was random, it got this bad by chance?! Nothing to do with the choices the Swedish government and the Publich Health Authority keep making, really?? Do they actually expect us to believe this BS?

There's a copy of the full text available here if you want to read it. Some more quotes:

For context, here are current stats published by Finland's national public broadcasting company. This is a screendump from July 8. The graph shows number of deaths over time. The table headings say "Country, Tests done, Confirmed cases, Deaths"


"It's random!" I can't help thinking it's starting to sound like America's 45... People are even making the same style of memes:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1280564745536507904

 

Biggest global daily increase in cases:

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coron...data-shows/ar-BB16uI90?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ASUDHP

 

I had previously predicted that the UK would probably get its act together around July after various other countries had made mistakes and shown how important adequate restriction and test and trace was. I think I may have been a couple of weeks ahead of reality. It looks from the news today as if the mistakes are just starting to snowball- Eastern Europe, Australia, even New Zealand... And the curves in the major western European countries are stubbornly failing to go to zero, presumably because of relaxations.

 

WHO: Indoor airborne spread of coronavirus possible

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...-coronavirus-possible/ar-BB16xTd3?ocid=ientp2

 

The Swedish Intensive Care Registry (SIR) has published incorrect mortality statistics due to a bug in their system:

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/bugg-i-systemet-har-gett-felaktig-coronastatistik

https://www.icuregswe.org/om-sir/nyheter/fel-i-mortalitetsrapport/

 

Fascinating graphic here on various global causes of death for 2020. Shows the rise of COVID, but the order of other causes (esp suicide & Parkinson’s) wasn’t what I expected.

https://public.flourish.studio/visu...IOheZDtEE8WvKHATiEfBQ6Dg7aajqBvAD-mEvx5S8nlng

 

What seems a bit confusing about that graph is that it only includes some rather uncommon causes of death. Stroke and pneumonia would be way off the scale. The total number of deaths in the world since January must be something like 50 million.

 

Yes. A friend on FB posted this. We both wondered at that too. She says she will ask about choice of comparators. Cancer and heart deaths also missing.

 

I would guess that the creators of the graphic chose to display causes of death that would ensure Covid-19 ended up at the top.

 

Very good (long) article on Britain's response to Covid-19 and how it ended up being so bad :

Title : Into the fog: How Britain lost track of the coronavirus

Subtitle : To tackle the invisible virus, doctors and health specialists first needed to find it. But with few tests, little contact tracing and a government culture of secrecy, they lost sight of the enemy.

Authors : STEPHEN GREY, ANDREW MACASKILL, RYAN MCNEILL, STEVE STECKLOW and TOMMY WILKES

Link : https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-coronavirus-britain-tracing/

There is a further short article on the same link at the end of the above report about contact-tracing apps in the UK.

Title : The game changer that wasn’t

Link : Near bottom of page - https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-coronavirus-britain-tracing/

Author : STEVE STECKLOW

 

Virtually anyone who's ever used google maps GPS on a smartphone should have been able to tell them that the app idea was 'silly'.

The reason that some countries got it to work was simple, a much more connected infrastructure, with virtually everyone, and every home, having built in internet with bluetooth/wifi. Many, many, many more known and fixed references to map the moving phones to, means much more accurate resolution.

the UK simply doesn't have this, few countries, or even cities do.

 

Title : Death at Justice: the story of Emanuel Gomes

Author : Jack Shenker

Link : https://members.tortoisemedia.com/2020/07/06/the-reckoning-death-at-the-ministry/content.html

 

As of today Ireland has 353 covid19 deaths per M, and Sweden has 545 ones.

Sweden has made soft measures, and Ireland has made profound measures. According to wikipedia they have been on alert before the first case was reported. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Germany has made some measures, probably not as strong as Ireland, I guess, and has 109 covid-19 deaths.

Excess death rate for some countries:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Interesting may be to compare France (with high covid-10 death rate)
with the two German states participating here, which can be glanced at at one time:
Excess mortality in France is negative by now, in Germany no impact at all is visible.

I meanwhile doubt that by end of the year much difference will show up (maybe in England).
(Real) Covid-19 accidents are of course nevertheless tragic, and could have been hindered, I guess.
However, I do not see where the huge, completely unusual threat is.
Probably even in the next European corona season only little impact will be seen.


EDIT: In the video linked in my previous post at 8:11 Sweden can be seen with very low excess mortalitiy for quite some time before covid. On EUROMOMO you can compare it to the not as low excess mortality in the other Nordic countries.

 

Yes, and it would be farcical if it wasn't so serious. No community transmission (that we know of) but we've had 4 escapees from isolation/quarantine centers now, all caught again within a couple of hours but still.

Clearly some people are unable to cope with confinement, despite mental health support being available. They climbed over high fences, cut fences, and smashed windows to get out. What can you do about people like that? Putting all arrivals into high security prison would be a bit tough on the many thousands who're all doing the right thing.