Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

Fortunately it seems likely that both were the sort of cases who get infected, recover, but then test positive again months later because their body is shedding inactive bits of virus. So, hopefully, a false alarm (crosses fingers and toes ).

But this does worry me and as for the eejits refusing tests ! You only have to look at Melbourne to see how quickly things can go from basically no problem to out of control.

 

So many mixed messages being sent - I'd be absolutely fuming if I wasn't already.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53618776

 

For those who, like me, might be interested in the social historical contexts to epidemics and where SARS-Co-V-2 fits within them, you might find this long-ish piece from the Boston Review interesting:

As they point out, HIV, polio, and TB (which @Jonathan Edwards has spoken about here from time to time) are among those epidemics that have not been eliminated but merely forgotten about by those in the Global North. As @anciendaze @mango @Rosie @strategist @lunarainbows and others have been showing on this forum over the course of the current Sars-Co-V-2 epidemic, local politics can often constrain the work of science in responding to epidemics, which the writers of this essay discuss. Which then can cause lasting socio-political changes/damage. Long story short: epidemics rarely have a tidy ending.

 

Just heard news from my family in Melbourne. Those of you who haven't heard, the State of Victoria (where Melbourne is) did a pretty tight lockdown in March and managed to get their cases into very small numbers - a couple a day. But over the last month there has been a great surge of cases, which are believed to be connected with security workers working in the quarantine hotels. Result is disaster, 700+ new cases in the State today (population is around 6 million I think).

They have gone into a second lockdown. Its a crucial time. Can they swing this around and get control of the virus at this late stage? Or will they go the way of Europe, and just end up slowing the spread so as not to stress the health services? This is a situation we should all be watching. I think turnaround may still be possible, but only if the lockdown is hard.

Some of my family members, although alarmed at the increase in daily deaths, still think that lockdown should be softish so as not to hurt those on hourly wages. But surely they will suffer more in the long term if the State doesn't go hard right now? If I had my way, I'd close everything except the supermarkets, medical services, pharmacies, police and emergency services. But it doesn't sound like that's going to happen. My mum is 84 .

Sorry to those whose situations are way, way worse. Surges notwithstanding, I realise the antipodes are still very fortunate.

 

I think that must be right. Turnaround is easy at any stage, never too late - but lockdown has to be maximum. Soft lockdown is a disaster because it produces exactly the opposite effect to that intended.

 

Do you agree with these restrictions, including the curfew?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-02/victorias-latest-coronavirus-restrictions-explained/12516182

I suspect the surge in Victoria was due to non-compliance with existing restrictions, rather than a lack of restriction severity. People not self-isolating when experiencing the initial mild symptoms in particular.

As little as a year ago, I expressed concern to various people about why mild infections seem far more common recently than they did 10-20 years ago, and apart from increased international travel, I suggested it was due to increased casualisation of the workforce along with cultural expectations that it is 'weak' not to go to work when you have a mild cold - and bosses likewise were not understanding of the need to take time off work in such cases. More than one person thought I was silly for suggesting people need to stay at home with mild colds. These attitudes do not disappear overnight and not everyone is connected, or has the English language skills to remain aware of these constantly changing laws.
I suggest that it is not just the laws, but the ability of the government to communicate how and why that matters. Mandatory mask laws without distributing high quality masks and communicating how using a mask incorrectly can lead to spread for example, would have been helpful - but wasn't done. Many people were saying, how am I to get a mask when they're sold out? The replies were, oh, just make one, use a scarf etc. But scarfs and most cloth masks are not effective in general for protecting the wearer.

 

Numbers in Germany are spiking again and people are protesting against lockdown rules.

Yesterday was most likely the hottest day of the year...I wish that I could go protest for the matters important to me. I can't help but to envy their health and condemn their recklessness.

Health privilege is real and I miss the ignorance that comes with it.

So far, outside protests don't seem to cause huge spikes in infections, so I cross my fingers for them and all of us.

 

I don't know what information is available but my general thought is that the more localised the infection is, as seems to be in Melbourne, the stronger the argument for every restriction you can think of.

Governments do not seem to understand that as cases get fewer and more local the argument for restriction gets STRONGER because the chances of elimination from an area become real. The pattern of easing restrictions as cases reduce is back to front.

 

What seems to be happening is that we are getting the worst of both worlds. Lockdown is an economic disaster but worth it if the virus numbers go down, but everywhere they are going back to normal life too soon so more people are getting ill, but the economy is taking another hit.

Being very, very careful with masks and hygiene would let businesses start making money but people are going crazy to get back to normal life and making normal life less likley.

 

Reading this makes me kind of weep for what a smart and competent BPS model could have been and how powerful it would be. Also that epidemiology is basically a biosocial framework of health. Amazing what you can do when you don't carry dead weight, Week-end at Freud's style.

 

New Evidence Suggests Young Children Spread Covid-19 More Efficiently Than Adults

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willia...19-more-efficiently-than-adults/#79fa9ff219fd

 

What is happening in Melbourne, as I understand it, is:

* no socialising outside the home, schools and universities, restaurants and bars closed;
* only one walk per day, within a 5km radius of home;
* masks to be worn outside when walking;
* spacing in shops; and
* (last night) curfew 8pm to 5am.

But I was shocked to learn that many non-essential businesses are still doing business. Like hardware shops! And restaurants and fast food places can do home delivery! It seems to me with a daily incidence of 700+, there'll be enough staff within these businesses to form a pretty decent vector for perpetuation - as each person passes on what they acquired from the workplace to their households - and back again, if more than one person in a household is still working. Add to that the small risk of leakage at every site of customer-staff interaction (e.g., people touching stuff at the hardware shop) and you've still got a real risk.

 

Hardware shops *are* essentials. In the UK, at least, they've been one of the few places where you can get masks, cleaning and sanitising products, not to mention bits and bobs for doing vital household repairs such as lightbulbs, electricals and plumbing, any of which could be a threat to health if not dealt with. And people do need to eat - or is everyone in Oz a capable cook?

 

The Guardian on (mainly UK-related) "Covid-19" death statistics and their calculation:

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...le-answers/ar-BB17tnls?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ASUDHP

 

Hardware shops near me have signs up reminding customers not to touch products unless they are intending to purchase them. In the paint sections where they have the colour cards only one person is allowed in and must sanitize hands in front of the staff. any cards they touch but don't take with them must be binned. A member of staff supervises.

Oddly, the hardware shop seems a much more controlled environment than the supermarket.

 

The only people now allowed in hardware outlets in Melbourne are any tradesmen who are still permitted to work because they work in the fresh air or alone. (Electricians and plasteres, for example, cannot work at the same time.). No construction work on buildings more than 3 floors high is permitted.

Almost all manufacturing and industry has been closed down. All retail except food related shops, petrol stations, banks, pharmacies and post offices are closed.

Any retailers that are able to provide contactless collection or delivery are permitted to do so.

Any food shop that can deliver is allowed to do so. I don't think there's any greater risk from these places than from the many logistics warehouses or from distribution centres for supermarkets, etc. Abattoirs have to reduce their staff by 1/3 so they are not close together and all workers have to wear full PPE clothing.

With public transport greatly reduced and just a few services at night, police will be freed up to do covid-related work.

We can't travel any further than a 5 km radius from home. Only two people can be together outside home, no exercise except walking or jogging for no more than one hour. Only one person can shop for food. And so on. Masks have been compulsory for weeks already.

The purpose of this even more restricted situation is to reduce contact between people as much as possible. The state of emergency restrictions (we now have a state of disaster) have prevented a trending increase in numbers. There was one scary day with over 700 cases but they have been bouncing around a lot. The R number has been around one but the aim is to eliminate it instead of allowing it to grumble along for who knows how long with constant restrictions.

 

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