Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

https://twitter.com/user/status/1290249733399666689


https://twitter.com/user/status/1290249735526211584


https://twitter.com/user/status/1290249738525138944

 

Florida's surge slowed somewhat over the weekend. We had a day with *only* 62 deaths, and 7,104 new cases. Outdoor testing sites were shut down on Thursday to prepare for a tropical storm, so there will be a continued drop in case numbers that has nothing to do with slowed infection rates. For the week we had 1,230 newly reported deaths, and 63,277 new cases. There were also 3,086 hospitalizations. This is an uncontrolled pandemic.

You may find discrepancies in reported numbers because the state has decided to report residents and non-residents separately. There have been 7,206 total deaths out of 509,754 people who tested positive, and the non-residents who died here are just as dead as residents. This yields a mortality rate of 1.41%, even though many recent cases are still unresolved. A typical mortality rate for common flu is 0.1%.

Without a serious lockdown it is scarcely possible to regain control now. Delays in testing mean you may not find out you test positive for over a week, and those who show symptoms may have been infectious for days before they were tested. The state does not release data on suspected or probable COVID-19 cases. This means contact tracers need to trace every contact in the last two weeks. Even if most of those comply with recommendations to self-isolate we have given those tracers an impossible job.

Here in Orange County, FL we have had 2,748 new cases this week, and at the start of the recent surge we had 22 official contact tracers. Bringing in new untrained people requires time from those already working flat out to train new ones. This is one situation where adding people to a task can slow things further. Eventually, the added help will pay off, but in the short term it may cause you to fall further behind. What we are doing now is clearly inadequate.

 

From Ed Yong's tweet this jumped out at me

In the UK, as far as I can tell the people who have devalued expertise are the experts themselves. In allowing eminence based opinion to replace evidence and the loudest voices to shout down other people so they could be the go to "experts" those who work in the relevant fields have allowed this to happen.

If ME patients can be seen as the canary in the mine for post covid patients then we can equally be seen as the canary in the mine for what can happen when eminence replaces evidence, smarm & bonhomie replaces expertise.

One example that particularly stands out is the whole behaviour fatigue business. Tosh, if people know what's at stake, given clear instructions on what to do and the consequences are spelled out there isn't a problem.

Did the people in WWII get tired of maintaining the blackout. Pretty sure they did, they maintained it anyway & were reminded by officials as necessary. Was it tedious that most of the road and rail signs were removed? Yep, but the need was understood.

Allowing people to take advantage of evolving public health issues, whether that's ME or a pandemic such as covid, to empire build with reckless disregard for their fellow man is one of the first things that needs to be addressed as far as I'm concerned.

 

Just happened to run across this study from Yale about reopening colleges with residential students. Here's a description.

From a scientific standpoint this is entirely reasonable; you need to catch positives before they infect others, which can come in two days. From a political standpoint it is probably hopeless. We actually have a congressman (Gohmert) claiming he got the virus from a mask. You can search for this if you want, I'm trying to avoid political links.

After asking some people to test links I posted, I'm going to try again with a story about a county commissioner who voted against masks, and is now on a ventilator.

We are way beyond rational discussion based on objective evidence, and I have a friend in that county who is at risk for both age and health.

I will reiterate my claim that the minimum standard for civilization is to live together without killing each other. Some of us are failing that test.

 

To be fair, I think Victoria are doing all that too. And I wouldn't deny UK people their hardware stores. Its just that the Victorian situation is critical. Little things might make the difference between being able to close coronavirus down completely, or having to live with it forever.

Perhaps I'm being overly panicky, because my mum lives there. And maybe also biased towards what we did in NZ. Which was hard lockdown right at the start for four weeks - no pie shops, no hardware shops, no takeaway for 4 weeks. And that worked.

 

Ah, okay, @oldtimer, thanks for the info. My mum says she bought paint the other day from Bunnings. Perhaps she is being loose with the time frame.

No, its not that there's greater risk. My worry is just that anywhere people are coming together to work is a potential vector if the prevalence of the virus is reasonably high. People need food supplies, there's no way around that, so the risk simply must be taken. But the same argument cannot be made for Bunnings.

 

I share your concern. My cousin lives in Melbourne with his family. His parents live in Cape Town , South Africa- a country that was initially doing well but seems also to have significant issues now. Not good for either .

 

.O

Your mum is right. I'm the one being loose with the time frame to keep it simple because restrictions are being introduced at different times. I think the restrictions on retail start tomorrow. The curfew has been in place for a couple of days already. Schools are closed from today.

Apparently the big worry is the quarter of infected people who were not at home when doorknocked. Over the past few weeks 800 of the 3000 people doorknocked were not there! Fines have been increased massively and doorknocking will increase, so I hope this works.

Australia should have done what NZ did at the start. Jacinda Ardern deserves all the accolades she gets. NZ is so courageously independent. David Lange and Helen Clark are also on my list of heroes.

 

Sorry, @Woolie. I didn't mean to sound like I was dismissing your concerns, which are wholly understandable. I agree it's better to lockdown hard and get the job done.

I just found it a little bizarre that the DIY shop felt a lot safe than the supermarket, was much better supervised etc, when the vulnerable who go out because they have no choice are more likely to just do the bare essentials - like food shop rather than choosing paint. So they should be at least as well protected in the grocery shop.

I hope your family stay safe.

 

When I look here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

I see ...




UK cases per million population about 1/3 of the US, but UK deaths per million population heading towards half as much again as the US. Given how dire the situation seems to be in the US, why is it so bad for us relative to them? Are people getting sicker in the UK? Is our NHS not coping as well? Or is it maybe a reporting deficit in the US regarding covid-related deaths?

ETA: In fact when you sort on deaths per million population, the UK is the 3rd worst in the world! Is that really true!

 

Wasn't there a phase in reporting of deaths in the UK where every death in social care and every death in hospital had Covid-19 included as a cause, even if the patient hadn't been tested? Or did I just imagine that?

 

Could it just be that we weren't doing much testing during the peak here?

I'm surprised Sweden's death have declined so much when they seem to have recommended less social distancing than many other places. I've seen people claiming that a lot of social distancing still took place in Sweden, but even so.

 

It seems to be.
I think the main difference from the USA responsible for the higher death rate is population density. The UK has one of the highest population density sin the world. The USA is quite low. The countries that do as badly as us are by and large small and urban, or at least have nearly all their population in a concentrated area.

 

That doesn't sound at all right to me, and I've never heard anything like it. There has been concern that once someone has tested positive, their death can be counted as Covid-19 related even if it was some time after infection and seemingly from a different cause.

 

I suspect that Sweden has the advantage of people being very spread out. Together with people taking things into their own hands I think that explains the recent fall in numbers. The super spreader set super spread for a bit but the rest have managed to remain uninfected.

 

I think you imagined that. People are only counted if tested positive. Some may have died of something else later but that probably accounts for very little of the total figure.

 

But how does that explain the UK's much higher rate of deaths per million cases? Surely population density primarily affects cases per million population, and deaths would then follow on from cases?

Or does a higher population density somehow foster a more virulent viral effect?

ETA:
UK approx 15,300 deaths per 100,000 cases.

US approx 3,360 deaths per 100,000 cases.

ETA2: I wonder if population density influences covid-severity related behaviours?

 

It doesn't explain that. I think there are two explanations for the much higher ratio of deaths to cases. One is that the UK deliberately stopped testing so for much of the peak testing was restricted to people who were seriously enough ill to need hospital admission. The second is that at the peak the health care system was overwhelmed, as in Spain and Italy and death rates were almost certainly much higher than they needed to be. In the USA overwhelming of facilities is only just starting now.

I think one has to face up the fact that all in all the UK has actually made a bigger mess of this than anyone. The health care infrastructure had been run right down and then testing was abandoned and lockdown delayed. In a country with high density and lots of travel that was madness. The policy made things as bad as they could possibly have been. And it is still madness because things are being eased with numbers gradually rising.

 

One more thought/question Jonathan.

When someone catches a virus is it a matter of encountering one initial contagion event, and then any subsequent encounters have no further influence on the person? Or is it that if you encounter a series of contagion events, then after the first one each subsequent event can reinforce the ongoing viral effect within the person from the previous contagion event(s)? If the latter, then presumably population density could influence this.

 

Yes, one event. All you need is one virus particle.