Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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Forbin said:
Based on that chart, I think it's hard to make the case that essential hypertension in conjunction with the virus increases mortality. More likely, hypertension is indirectly connected to poorer outcomes via conditions like obesity, heart disease and diabetes. Hypertension could also be an indication of smoking, which might not be a great history to have in a fight with a respiratory disease.

The chart is based on data from China, and more than half the men in China smoke (52.7%) - including 60% of male doctors.

[...and yet there's no mention of smoking as a risk factor on that chart.]
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It's my understanding that the initial theory that smokers were at much higher risk of complications has turned out to not be supported by the data coming out of China.
 
TrixieStix said:
It's my understanding that the initial theory that smokers were at much higher risk of complications has turned out to not be supported by the data coming out of China.
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That may be correct, but it's possible that's because the data out of China doesn't include statistics on smoking. This article in New Scientist yesterday (2/27) says:
We don’t know if smoking increases the risk of people with covid-19 becoming severely ill because China hasn’t been reporting if infected people are smokers, but previous studies have shown that smoking increases the risk of being hospitalised if you get flu.
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It is true that there is a wide discrepancy between men and women when it comes smoking in China. Somewhere around 50% of men smoke compared to 2 to 3% of women.
 
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Behavioural science must be at the heart of the public health response to covid-19

"Human behaviour will determine how quickly covid-19 spreads and the mortality. Therefore behavioural science must be at the heart of the public health response. While responding agencies move quickly to issue advice intended to raise awareness and inform the public and professionals about what actions to take to minimise transmission, behaviour change in the face of a looming pandemic can be slow and may be too late to prevent hundreds or thousands of potentially avoidable deaths.

[...]

For the public, we need to provide actionable information for self-protection and clear guidance for treatment seeking. [4] There is a science behind how to make information “actionable.”"

__________

I feel like this his starting right now here; Macron and Merkel don't shake hands anymore and mass gatherings are being canceled.
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
This is quite interesting. My guess is that reported cases are not only 97.6% from 20 upwards but very likely with an even bigger skew to older age groups. So being in the 61+ age range does not necessarily mean that fatality rates are four times higher than the average (if most deaths are in the last of 0-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-80 quarters). Maybe people over 61 are a third or even half of cases reported. And if having a pre-existing condition is critical then maybe the rate is still only 1-2% for others.
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In addition to mortality rates being highest in the 61+ group, rates are 70% higher in men. This also suggests that smoking is a key risk factor. Smoking rates in China are around 50% in men and around 3% in women. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6546632/

Studies of medical doctors found between 23-60% of male doctors were smokers!
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19219492

Risk of mortality in western countries in individuals with no obvious risk factors in the 15-50 age group will be well under 0.2%
 
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Leila said:
The rate seems to be pretty high in Italy though, too. But maybe the number of infected is vastly undetected there.
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I read in an article that experts say it most likely is the case that it’s been spreading in Italy for many weeks before these cases were detected recently - possibly even since mid January. So it’s been under the radar and possibly more cases?. I think some experts think it may be the case in the UK also in terms of being under the radar, which is why they’re going to test some people at GP surgeries and those in intensive care.
 
As long as no more than 11 monkeys are involved then everyone will be fine, apart from those that won't be.

But everyone else - totally sorted.

Other than.......

and then of course there are those who ......

and ......

(BTW - 0.2% of the UK population between 15 and 50 with no preexisting health conditions may be 60,000 people)
 
Trish said:
I hope not. Can you get tested?
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It doesn't seem much different from a ordinary flu. It seems to be slower to get going and disappear. Also the instructions by the health authorities say that the signal to act would be having a flu with respiratory problems. Also I'm double sick and don't feel like doing anything but wait it out.

I would rather that the test kits are used for people who really need them.
 
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strategist said:
It doesn't seem much different from a ordinary flu. It seems to be slower to get going and disappear. Also the instructions by the health authorities say that the signal to act would be having a flu with respiratory problems.

I would rather that the test kits are used for people who really need them.
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from what I understand, people can get coronavirus without respiratory symptoms? But those with respiratory symptoms need to be monitored in hospital definitely. For some people, it can be similar to a cold or mild flu. That doesn’t mean you have the coronavirus of course, just I think people can get it without those severe symptoms.
 
lunarainbows said:
in case of med Shortages?
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There have been a number of med shortages over the last year. Generally due to pharma companies buying each other out, or moving manufacturing plants, some of them to China, and delays in setting up new production lines etc...

It has affected one med I take, although we've got a work around that isn't suiting me as well and I've only been allowed it short term until the supply chain is sorted. In my case it makes a big difference mainly because of the knock on effect on ME.

However some people with epilepsy for example who have finally found a drug that stops them having multiple seizures a day have been affected. Along with all sorts of people with other conditions.

Anyway, fingers crossed medication supplies won't be further affected by the coronavirus. Many people have already been struggling with supplies for the last year or so.
 
strategist said:
In my family it is now clear that we are affected by some flu. We don't have fever though, just feel crappy. I have very bad headache. Could be the coronavirus.
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I'm in California and just had two days of extreme muscle aches, slight fever, diarrhea, headache, HH6 activation big time, congestion, sneezing, slight shortness of breath, feeling very crap and in bed and cognitively impaired. Sick for four days so far.

I hope it's my exposure to the covid. We have community spread but to what extent is not known as yet.

I was able to purchase a bottle of Corona beer today. It should help.
 
Snow Leopard said:
In addition to mortality rates being highest in the 61%+ group, rates are 70% higher in men. This also suggests that smoking is a key risk factor.
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Maybe, but my memory is that for influenza in the early twentieth century young males were hit much harder and that might be for other reasons. If HLA Class I is a risk factor then it may be that pulmonary complications are a reflection of aggressive T cell response - and that tends to go with being male at least in some contexts.
 
strategist said:
In my family it is now clear that we are affected by some flu. We don't have fever though, just feel crappy. I have very bad headache. Could be the coronavirus.
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shak8 said:
I'm in California and just had two days of extreme muscle aches, slight fever, diarrhea, headache, HH6 activation big time, congestion, sneezing, slight shortness of breath, feeling very crap and in bed and cognitively impaired. Sick for four days so far.
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I had sore throat, runny nose, sneezing, feverish head about two weeks ago. It was like a cold where for a day or two when you bend over the nose drips so quickly you hardly have time to catch it with a tissue. Whatever it was it lasted a week. I did salt mouth washes, gargle and slept as upright as possible in bed.

Another thing I always do when I have a cold is to up my intake of mixed nuts and orange juice. If I remember rightly the zinc in nuts are good for helping with healing?
 
In a way if I am going to catch this illness I think I would rather catch it now while we are having summer temperatures in the late 20's C (over 68F). The warmer temperature could help make the illness easier to recover from?
 
Rosie said:
In a way if I am going to catch this illness I think I would rather catch it now while we are having summer temperatures in the late 20's C (over 68F). The warmer temperature could help make the illness easier to recover from?
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I think I might just have the influenza virus. I had the flu vaccine but its effectiveness at preventing is about 50%. Have no runny nose. Muscle aches from hell..
 
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