Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

I think that they don't think they can stop the virus without causing complete economic havoc - like all airlines going bust as well as large numbers of retail businesses etc. I think the mistake is to think that letting things rip will do any better.

The problem as I see it is that for at least a year the machinery of capitalism has to stop. If current businesses cannot cope with that I think one has to ask why not. What is the use of a system that cannot cope with people staying at home and not spending money on non-essentials during a crisis?

This is not a political point - just a reflection on reality.

They could of course stop the epidemic by doing what has been done in Wuhan and Singapore.

 

Maybe our governements should not only be adviced by their CDCs but also PR firms regarding health and risk communication.

People have been mocked for panic buying food, masks and desinfectants when in fact that only shows that there is a dissonance between the footage being seen from China and now Italy and the words being heard from our officials ("flu kills more people").

 

This is an important read.. (from twitter) - can read full thread if you click on link

https://twitter.com/user/status/1236933818654896129


“1/ I may be repeating myself, but I want to fight this sense of security that I see outside of the epicenters, as if nothing was going to happen "here". The media in Europe are reassuring, politicians are reassuring, while there's little to be reassured of. #COVID19 #coronavirus

2/ This is the English translation of a post of another ICU physician in Bergamo, Dr. Daniele Macchini. Read until the end "After much thought about whether and what to write about what is happening to us, I felt that silence was not responsible.

......

20/ I finish by saying that I really don't understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there's no mask on sale anymore. We don't have a lot of studies, but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort? “

 

Does anyone know what the time interval is between when a person first becomes contagious, to when they first start to show symptoms?

 

This sounds a lot like the early warnings from Wuhan

 

I think part of the strategy is to try and slow it down so that not everyone gets it at the same time, in which case the health service just wouldn't be able to look after folk who become severely ill.

People here are for the most part following the advice to carry on as normal, as there's only been one reported case in the region. I thought the midday lane swim (attended mostly by older and disabled people) might be quieter today, but it was actually busier. Everyone I spoke to was expecting the advice to change reasonably soon, so they were getting a bit of swimming, water-walking, and stretching in whilst they still can.

Apparently a British scientist has been developing a breath test, which might – theoretically – prove more effective than swabs:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-51791451

[Minor edit for clarity]

 

WHO:

People with COVID-19 generally develop signs and symptoms, including mild respiratory symptoms and fever, on an average of 5-6 days after infection (mean incubation period 5-6 days, range 1-14 days).

 

If you are young and healthy its not a big deal in terms of direct health impact. But if older and/or unhealthy then it is much riskier. Unfortunately, modern society is very self-focused. Other people dying? Well, its other people, isn’t it. Thats the underlying true view of some, I think. Some seem annoyed that their life is inconvenienced by this virus and that others want to avoid it. Bit sad.

 

Near enough :

https://www.irishtimes.com/business...vid-19-test-kits-to-wuhan-hospitals-1.4190697

 

But do you become contagious as soon as you are infected?

 

I was thinking of more of something that an individual could spit on and see the results for themselves, within minutes, rather than something where you need to collect loads of samples, ship them off to a lab and get a result eight hours later, though! A near-instant, individual test-kit would surely be transformational in stopping the spread of a pandemic.

 

Yes, I brought this up at a work meeting last week. Was feeling peeved with people saying "Yes, but most people will only be lightly affected, it's only the elderly and those with preexisting medical conditions that are at risk. Pointed out I have close relatives with asthma and diabetes, and also have elderly relatives, and that it will be the same for plenty of other people who might themselves be healthy.

 

• People are thought to be most contagious when they are most symptomatic (the sickest).
• Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html

 

They're hoping to develop a 'pregnancy test' type device. May not happen fast enough to stop this virus spreading very widely, but the technology developed in response to it could be very useful for future ones.

 

A lovely idea, but sadly many people are just too short sighted and self centered to either do such a test or inconvenience themselves by staying away from others if it was positive.

There have been self testing kits for drivers who who have had a drink. Still people either don't use em or drive anyway. People still drink and drive and there are hefty penalties if someone is caught.

Let alone where you might be positive for a virus but feel perfectly well.

 

But that could simply mean people are most likely to pass the bug on when they are coughing and sneezing all over the place. Is someone happens to cough or sneeze (as people do anyway) during the incubation phase, I wonder if that cough/sneeze sends out just as virulent a dose of virus as later in the infection's course. Or does the above mean that people's spray is itself less contagious?

 

@Barry I don't think they know for sure yet?

 

I was trying to get a feel for the likelihood of the virus being spread by those who no one yet knows are contagious.

 

Yeah I know which is why I said it was almost there. For individual samples I believe the turnaround time is 4 hours or so. About 20 years ago in an previous life me and my boss met the head of Randox and he talked us through the prototype of this technology. Good to see it up and running.

 

An opinion piece by a group of Swedish doctors, professors and scientists, suggesting that Sweden should change strategy in order to slow down the spread.

(Läkartidningen is a Swedish medical journal published by the Swedish Medical Association.)

Läkartidningen: Sverige bör byta strategi för att bromsa spridning av coronaviruset
http://lakartidningen.se/Opinion/De...gi-for-att-bromsa-spridning-av-coronaviruset/

Google Translate, English ("Sweden should change its strategy to slow down the spread of the corona virus")