Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

As someone has already pointed out, various things this afternoon made it seem to me that people are taking things into their own hands. The government has been left behind. Care homes are stopping all visits. The insurance industry is shutting down all foreign travel. And so on.

 

Absolutely.

 

Vincent Racaniello made an appearance on CNN in Erin Brunett’s show to discuss Coronavirus

 

yes this is such good news.

 

UK to ban mass gatherings in coronavirus U-turn

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/uk-to-ban-mass-gatherings-in-coronavirus-u-turn

 

I posted this much earlier but it got held up in moderation.

I think the world needs a plan where when a serious pandemic outbreak occurs, we need t close all our borders. I don't feel our government is taking it as seriously as it should. We have had only 5 reported cases - we have time to stop things exploding.

What would be the costs of closing down all flights into and out of a country except for flights for medical supplies, etc? A lot of businesses would fail?

I read in one of our newspapers this morning that a MP was going to be travelling overseas for a political meeting. I don't understand how this can be allowed when we need to protect this country from increased exposure to this virus.

 

Very interesting article on why the UK made such different decisions to the rest of the world - Nudge theory. I didn’t know about much of this before so was very interesting but also weird to read. Weird because even for me, from an outside point of view, and with no expertise in the area, I just don’t understand why the govt thought it was relevant at all. And also it doesn’t make sense. And it’s clear proper social isolating measures are needed, not just small “nudges”. It’s all a muddle. I would like to see the govt release their data and modelling.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...relying-on-nudge-theory-to-tackle-coronavirus

https://twitter.com/user/status/1238621921580900364

 

She's not the first person to say that to Sir Simon. Hopefully she'll fare better than the rest of us.

 

Interesting; thanks. A couple of days ago a doctor wrote in The Atlantic that this is not a 'mild' infection at all, and that the media is spreading falsehoods indicating that the infection is light. His comments seem to be in line with Dr Gerada's. As an aside, I just heard this evening on Radio Canada (the French CBC) an Anthropologist arguing that this is nature's way of dealing with the fact that the planet is overpopulated. He didn't add too much more information to this conjecture of his. But as a further aside, when I was born the population was 2.5 billion and now it is 7.5 billion or so.

 

This Guardian article on the evidence that led the government to be concerned about 'fatiguing' people with stringent action cites a Wessely review of questionnaire scores from other epidemics. The paper itself looks like a bit of a nothing (people don't enjoy being quarantined and tend to fill in questionnaires more negatively when they've had to do something they don't like), but we've previously seen how Wessely can spin nothing research into groundbreaking evidence when he's speaking to policy makers, so I guess it's possible that happened here?:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-form-new-front-in-battle-against-coronavirus

The Lancet paper: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30460-8/fulltext

It says:

This is the final sentence, which seems written to catch the eye of politicians:

 

I just had a quick look at the other review cited in the Guardian article I posted above:

https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/WP656.pdf

The only bit I saw that seemed to support the 'fatigue' notion, was this (which was more about extensions than length):

Looks like that is referring to another Wessely questionnaire study, but this one is about service in the military, not even about isolation to restrict the spread of an infection:

[51] Rona, R. J., Fear, N. T., Hull, L., Greenberg, N., Earnshaw, M., Hotopf, M., & Wessely, S. (2007). Mental health consequences of overstretch in the UK armed forces: first phase of a cohort study. Bmj, 335(7620), 603. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.39274.585752.BE

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1988977/

I did not read all of that review properly though, so may have missed something.

 

Multiple vaccines are in the testing phase right now. Vaccine creation is largely automated now, the procedures streamlined. However testing those vaccines is still a long process. One group in the US, I do not recall details, is talking about skipping animal testing and currently recruiting human volunteers, in an effort to cut testing time.

The big issue here is not how long it will take to create the first vaccine, but how long it will take to create an effective vaccine. That is a whole other issue.

 

I was in Lidl today, around 6pm, and it was the most packed I've ever seen it. I wondered what the logic of that was in relation to the virus issue, and I still haven't worked it out.

 

That is what a now large number of medical experts are saying. A few people are supporting the government position and of course there is huge pressure on anyone in a job in the filed to do so, but the majority of opinions agree with what you say.

By Monday I suspect we may be nearly in line with others - just people realising they need to do something. The schools issue is the one thing I am not sure about. Keeping schools open may actually be sensible - just as a way of handling the low risk population sector separately from the high risk.

Edit: five minutes later I see the government are doing a U turn.

 

Yes they’ve done a U turn...

There was an interview on ITV 2 days ago with the Honorary president of the BMA and he was very critical of the govt position, and said more should have been done weeks ago. when asked should schools have been closed, he said yes they should have been, as even if children are not at risk of developing illness themselves, they are a “hub” for infection. They touch lots of surfaces, have contact with lots of other children and people, and so very easily spread it to vulnerable people like elderly and others they live with and are in contact with. This agrees with the link Cheshire and I posted above that school closures can be one of the most important interventions (eg influenza 1918).

I see lots of other countries closing schools too. I saw that the govt could lose 3% of GDP though by closing schools and I imagine that could be a consideration for them. As well as how to actually manage it - what if parents can’t work from home remotely etc. But I do wonder how other countries manage it. There must be a way.

 

The Guardian is running this daily "Coronavirus Live" with news from around the world.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/coronavirus-live

 

Near me, they are closing schools, but, realizing that both parents may have jobs, they are making plans to look after children... by gathering them together at schools.

 

Clare Gereda on Radio 5 now.

"it was worse than flu"
"all I could do was sleep"
"it's very frightening being ill"
"it's difficult to be compassionate for others because we are rarely ill"
"let's all be in this together"
"we've all got to pull together behind the government and scientists"
and even brought Churchill into it.

Unsurprisingly, she supports the UK government on coronavirus policy.

 

Can i roll my eyes? The irony.