Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

Update from Berlin regarding closure of daycare centers

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/...erzichtet-auf-zentrale-not-kitas/25645052.htm

Translated with DeepLl

 

Update from Berlin regarding public transport

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik...ch-berlin-in-quarantaene-begibt/25643520.html

Translated with DeepL

 

Should have included this before.
British society of immunology also wrote an open letter to the govt.

https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-open-letter-government-sars-cov-2-outbreak-response

 

To me this has similarities to industrial process control. If you have a fast, high'ish-order system controlled to a point well away from where the system would naturally revert to, and then suddenly remove that control, the system will then rocket away to revert to that point, and potentially overshoot to a high value. The trick is to not remove the control instantly, as a step change, but to slowly and progressively modify the control so that the system control point changes much more slowly; you then retain much better control, and minimise or eliminate the overshoot. Completely removing the control as a step change, so the process is allowed to run riot, and then in a panic whacking the control back on again when you realise too late you need to, is not the way to go!

So if you have a contagious infection still active within a population but rigorously controlled to a low level, but if you have no choice but to relax that control in order for society to function, then you absolutely must back off the control progressively, to damp the rate at which the infection reestablishes itself, and thereby have some reasonable chance of control.

ETA: However I've just seen @Lucibee's post, so what I've said above may not apply to the Spanish flu example. But it is still valid as a general principle.

 

Haven't been following things closely but from graphs I've seen on COVID-19 cases in Asian countries, it seems possible to stop the spread of the virus by taking draconian measures. So I see no need to assume that it will be impossible to stop the virus from infecting a large part of the population.

That's why I'm a bit confused by the popularity of the 'flatten the curve' graphs online and in the press. If I understand correctly these make the point that even if we can't prevent the virus from infecting a large part of the population, it's still important that we make sure it spreads slowly to not overburden the healthcare system. But in the case of SARS COV-2, it seems that preventing the viruses from infecting a large part of the population is still realistic. So rather than flattening the curve, we could try to make sure that there isn't a curve or only a tiny one.

When comparing the Chinese and British approach, I think the former has shown some evidence of success while the latter makes some dramatic assumptions that we simply don't know are true (comparing to the Spanish flu is speculating too much IMHO - situation was very different). To state it briefly, if the Chinese measures of trying to contain the virus are right, they could avoid a disaster and if they are wrong the disaster would be pretty much inevitable anyway. If the British measures are wrong they could lead to a disaster that was preventable while if they are right they would simply steer us through a horrendous disaster a little more smoothly.

Perhaps the virus will be less virulent during summertime or perhaps a vaccine might come quicker than expected given that this is a pandemic and worldwide emergency. Trying to stop the virus from spreading by isolation measures seems like the most sensible thing to do now - even if it isn't a very elegant solution. Guess it will be important to see how well economies are able to function during the quarantine measures.

 

Shit, 40% had chronic fatigue and 27% met criteria for CFS. That's at 4 year follow up. If that happens with COVID-19 survivors then the world will be a mess.

 

I may have missed this, but do we have a sense of how long a person remains sick once he/she has contracted the virus. What is the time range, until a person recovers? Are they very ill for many weeks? months?

(As an aside, here in Quebec, Premier Legault has asked folks over 70 to remain in their houses and to shop on line. The schools and universities are all closed for the next two weeks; folks are asked to work from home. However, public transport is still operative. Legault is giving daily press conferences and evaluating constantly. He stated that all the cases have been brought in by folks who were elsewhere or on cruises. March break is over and folks are all back, but Legault thinks that amongst these folks who went on holiday there are carriers. )

 

Here's a short piece making the point that the virus is spread by folks who are asymptomatic. This topic may have been covered here; I'm not sure. https://neurosciencenews.com/covid-19-spread-15915/

 

Are you sure of this with COVID-19?

Its seems the death rate is between 1 and 2% that means 98-99% or people get nowhere near having pneumonia or a severe acute respiratory syndrome.

Were being told over and over again that the people who are dying are elderly and have preexisting illnesses it seems including things like cancer, COPD etc etc. Wouldn't they always have been at risk of pneumonia and respiratory illnesses anyway?


Where can we find exact information on deaths, ages, underlying illnesses etc that have been linked to confirmed cases that tested positive for Covid-19?

There is a massive difference between saying Covid-19 caused a death and saying someone with late stage cancer or COPD for example tested positive for Covid-19 and died.

As agreed earlier prior to the end of 2019 we had never tested for COVID-19 as a test did not exist. One may say we had no reason to develop such a test but we cannot know therefore the potential historic count.

How different countries count such a death toll could have a massive effect on the exact figures of what is happening either way in terms of cause of death.

Lets not also forget that currently all of our information is coming from the news media and not published data.

 

This is just Norm Macdonald rambling about the new corona virus rather than a really hilarious piece, but I thought it was worth posting for a bit of a break from radically escalating fatality figures. Includes casual swearing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-skA4GhVX7k

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoYUX3gqZs4

 

Beijing

https://twitter.com/user/status/1238699707758571520


Chicago, Illinois

Illinois had a reported 32 cases Friday.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1238986272137502720


Dallas / Fort Worth, Texas

Texas had a reported 63 cases Saturday.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1238986444615618561


Washington DC area

https://twitter.com/user/status/1238937081889636352



The US still doesn't have anywhere near enough testing.

 

I think it may be Nature's way of telling us to keep the animals we want to live with (or consume) away from bats.

 

Yes. These illnesses are not hard to spot when serious cases occur.

 

This study is famous, and misleading. Most patients recovered in a few years if I recall correctly. Post viral fatigue, meeting broad CFS but not ME criteria, can last up to five years, though I also have to wonder if some of this is ME in disguise. Indeed a lot of post pathogen fatigue might be ME, just not counted as ME. We don't have the proper epidemiology to be sure. Post-SARS has long been a thing, but I have not read any research on it lately.

Severity of infection is likely to be a good indicator though. Covid-19 is severe in older patients, and less severe in younger patients. I am guessing we will see some kind of post-Covid-19 syndrome, though whether or not its ME is another matter. Until we have a reliable test for ME we wont be sure one way or the other.

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1239092380797734913

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1238908515017768963

 

Well Dr Phil Hammond on Broadcasting House (BBC Radio4) this morning seemed to think it was a possibility, although his solution was not to be scared, because fear activates the immune system (mind-body connection, you know), which will just make it worse and make it more likely that you will get CFS.

Here is the transcript of that bit: