Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

(Repeat of my comment elsewhere
https://twitter.com/user/status/1238826683697954816

 

No, the U turn has come on mass gatherings. And even then, not until next week... :/

School closures, they haven’t said anything. Jonathan Edwards mentioned school closures separately in his post, and I mentioned it separately in my post too.. didn’t mean to get it mixed up with the mass gathering bit. Sorry!

 

I don't think the situation is ever too late. The isolation and distancing rules just need putting in place. I think fairly soon it will be as obvious to everyone in the UK as it has been in Italy that we will need lockdown of some sort. The spread will stop, as in China. It may take a bit longer than we would like and some people will die unnecessarily but it is not too late.

 

Sorry, we were talking about u-turn on large gatherings, not schools.

 

Thanks Jonathan Edwards. It just seems very out of control because of how the government is handling this. So far just stopping mass gatherings and only next weekend. But yeah, there must come a time when even our government will realise they cannot continue with their plan. I feel so sad for the deaths that could have and should have been avoided.

 

A highly instructive article and interactive chart to show how introducing aggressive measures as early as possible impacts peak severity and overall mortality: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-trump-response.html

 

This is so very, very sad.

 

How does she know? Did she test positive? There's such a thing a mass hysteria....there was an outbreak years ago at the Royal Free I'm told....

For the record her medical history is none of my business. My post is less to do with her than to do with illnesses for which there are no clear diagnostic tests or tests have not been performed.

 

Wow!

https://twitter.com/user/status/1238839893595488256


Open letter to government here: http://maths.qmul.ac.uk/~vnicosia/UK_scientists_statement_on_coronavirus_measures.pdf

AND! A letter to the government From behavioural scientists too

https://twitter.com/user/status/1238843771032346625



https://sites.google.com/view/covidopenletter/home

this is all over the news

 

According to TV 157 died from covid-19 in the province of Bergamo in one day. Some say this is because there was a cluster of cases and lockdown was delayed for too long.

There are also some good news. In the first area that was locked down, Codogno, there are no new cases. In some other areas the new cases are in decline.

 

This can be contrasted with what the BBC were saying yesterday:

Which is a milder formulation of what they originally claimed, and are now back-peddling from:

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51874084

 

So lockdown works.

Time the UK and US governments started realising that people who don't speak English at breakfast may have a point.

 

Clarification 14 March 2020: An earlier version of this article said no scientists had spoken out against the government. This has been updated to make clear that, at time of publication, no UK epidemiologists had spoken out in the mainstream media.

How mealy mouthed can you get?
And although the guy I spoke to from Radio 5 who said he was looking for quotes from microbiologists off the record challenging the government they end up having Clare Gerada. What a load of toadies.

 

Wow they actually said that. Unbelievable. “No scientists had spoken out about the government”. I saw so many scientists speak out about it via twitter. What was that then?

Very annoyed with the media in the UK, especially the BBC, which seems to display a lack of critical thought about this plan.

There was one of the scientists interview on Sky news just now. Just went into the Living room for the first time today to watch it instead of my phone It was worth it. He was very good.

The lady keeps asking about delaying the peak and herd immunity. He said herd immunity is for vaccinations and there is no precedent for using herd immunity with a virus in the population. Also that every country is trying to reduce the peak and spread it out - That’s the aim of all - and they’ve done it with social distancing, and the evidence from China and now perhaps Italy shows that. And the govts plan will increase deaths. He said they were very concerned about the govts approach which is why they wrote the letter.

Edit: they asked about testing. He said right now the most important thing is the country needs social distancing

 

I am just thinking that everyone has been comparing this virus to influenza of the endemic seasonal sort. But maybe it should be compared to polio. It became clear that polio had to be eradicated. I think Sars2/Covid19 will look the same. There is a death rate above 1% and the illness is horrible and requires high cost medical care. It may also have long term sequelae.

 

Yes. When I was in the living room watching Sky News, they showed a clip of Patrick Vallance from his last press conference, he was saying how the illness causes very “mild” illness in most people. It is what keeps being used to justify the policy. So it’s ok to allow it to spread. It was very worrying to keep hearing it, and I think quite a section of the public went on board with the plan because of these things he said.

 

Impossible! Vaccines are safe.

 

Does any one know the figures on how many people died from Covid-19 in Europe in:

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

 

Covid-19 only started in 2019, that’s when it crossed over to humans