Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

I did the math. Well before 90 days its everyone on the planet, presuming other factors don't intervene. We can definitely slow it enough to make a big difference if there is enough political will and good advice.

 

... the bane of human existence. Most of us do not have the temperament nor training to do this, even professionals.

 

On the weekend Matt Hancock said that the govt plan did not include herd immunity. Which was odd as the govt had been bangin on about exactly that for days. It looked out of place and Hancock appeared to be wrong, but in light of this new information it looks like they had sight of this data several days ago, and decided to abandon the idea quietly so as not to have to say "turns out too many people would die as the NHS cannot possible cope, we probably were wrong to take such a massive risk in the first place." which is why Hancock said what he did in the way he did. Govt have known about this and sat on it for days and even today did not come clean that they were changing strategy, but presented it as if the plan had not changed.

 

Yes. Schools are not just full of young people, they are also large workplaces. Most schools have at least 1 adult employed for every child/young person, including teachers, support and admin staff - all working in a very close proximity (much closer than in an average office). Then there's also the cleaners and caterers on top of this! How many parents are in the vulnerable category (including having underlying health conditions, being pregnant, being a carer etc)? Many young people in the UK are also 'young carers', looking after either parents or siblings. Then of course, there are lots of children with disabilities and underlying health conditions in mainstream as well as special schools - so far no guidance has been given to this group.

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2020-0...al-review-over-decision-to-keep-schools-open/

 

A 4 year period of semi isolation doesn't sound attractive until you think of the alternative --- people dying prematurely. I think we should buy time and hope that a treatment or vaccine can be delivered.

Around the end of February I heard a veterinary scientist from Dublin being interviewed on the radio (RTE) I think he referred to "small molecules" which inhibit viral replication (used in AIDS)? Anyone came across anything regarding the use/potential use of anti-virals?

 

I know, from the press conference it was as if the numbers were higher than they expected and that’s why they just intervened earlier than usual. But still sticking to the same herd immunity plan. But actually it seems now that’s not the case. So much lack of transparency, even now. Not to mention the huge amount of anxiety, stress and panic it would have caused to people in this country.

 

Several reports on the evening news of parents taking their kids out of school, either because the kid has a health condition such as asthma, or the parent does.

 

Very hard math is involved in this. Like multiplying 66 million (UK population) by 0.8% (South Korea's death rate). That's about half a million people and might be an optimistic minimum estimate. With an overburdened healthcare system it could be much worse. You don't need any more sophisticated analysis to see that letting it spread is not a good idea.

A look at Bergamo which was late with quarantine would also give you a glimpse of what that would have looked like, but in most of the UK instead of one city.

 

Being able to bull s--t relies on "information asymmetry"; however, when folks like you explained the problem with this strategy (not enough ICU beds/respirators) then they may have had to quietly drop it! Thank you for the insight.

South Korea moved to mass testing and contact tracing i.e. to break transmission; does anyone know why the UK has not started mass testing? Is cost/availability of test kits the problem?

 

But he was involved in the original modelling too, wasn’t he?
From the report, it seemed to me that the same team was involved in the original herd immunity strategy, as well as the new one. How could they have got it so wrong.

Report: (I haven’t read it) https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

NHS staff are too scared to speak up - The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ts?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true

 

We really do need a quick response, hard and fast. I found the endless 'consulting experts' a few weeks ago caused me great anxiety. We only needed to see what was happening in China to make a swift decision to stop all visitors to our countries and only allow fellow countrymen to come home and provide a place of isolation for them.

I don't know how some countries are placed though regarding supplies that are needed from other countries and how to work around that.

 

Latest UK government advice

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults

 

Can't help thinking they choose advisers that tell them what they want to hear.

 

The (revised) model is here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Their previous model was relying on COVID-19 being exactly like influenza in terms of number of severe cases hospitalised or needing ICU for viral pneumonia, which obviously meant they massively underestimated the potential demand.

Tom Whipple has tweeted that 30-50k people are now thought to be infected in the UK (sounds like it was mentioned at the Imperial modelling press conference).

 

Seems a preliminary vaccine is already being tested in humans (in Seattle, USA): https://neurosciencenews.com/covid-19-vaccine-trial-15921/

 

It's hard to know what the govt is really doing. But the paper reccomends suppression as the right strategy because the mortality numbers are really bad otherwise, even if you protect the vulnerable.