Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

Mainly because those who are supposed lead, and to either understand or listen to those who understand what exponential increase really means ... have not. Instead it's been dithering and mumbling procrastination, and now we are told the time is right to start clamping down when ... no ... the time is wrong, it should have been done well before now, before the runaway got going. Later they will say "Well, nobody could have known" ... cr@p, plenty of people have known, if only they had listened. They wait until they know for certain the fire has taken hold, and then when they realise it has ... oh my goodness me ... we can't put it out!

 

It’s going to continue on that path for a while. Measures announced today (voluntary social distancing is the main one, but nothing being officially closed and no govt intervention), no concrete words on community testing or NHS testing, no concrete plans on how to stop elderly and vulnerable getting ill since they’re constantly in contact with others in their household/carers, no school closures..

Individuals still only self isolate for 7 days. Why? WHO says 14 days. Says they will only test hospital workers to check they have it because once they’ve tested them once, they won’t get it again.

Is this all just part of “nudge” quack stuff? Like “advising” and “strongly advising” us?

 

For anyone not sure what exponential growth is (I appreciate many here do know) then this is an interesting little insight. Suppose you have a sheet of paper, and that sheet of is a tenth of a millimetre thick. Now suppose you could fold it in half, and then fold that in half, and keep folding, meaning that with each fold the thickness of the paper stack doubles. Suppose you fold it 50 times (you would not be able to, but just suppose), how thick would the paper stack be?

Spoiler: Answer ...

About 70 million miles! Three quarters the way to the sun.

 

Unfortunately no one in the UK with “mild” cases is being cared for at home. They are told to just be at home. They may very well pass it onto family members too. But there’s no actual care.

Yes I do not understand why it is 7 days for individuals in the Uk. Seriously what is that based on?

 

Good one, I saw that earlier.

The New York Times has a simulator (US centric) that lets you change infection rate and fatality rate and then compare deaths from COVID-19 against other causes of death.

Could Coronavirus Cause as Many Deaths as Cancer in the U.S.? Putting Estimates in Context
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...ronavirus-best-worst-death-toll-scenario.html

This may useful to convince those folks who, as recently as 2-3 days ago, were saying, "But there have only been 40 deaths in the USA so far! The flu is so much worse!" Screen shot below:



I think the NY Times is allowing free access to any coronavirus info as long as you register with an email address.

Several other newspapers also have let down paywall for any coronavirus info but I don't have a list.

 

BoJo has decided to get a bit more serious about things.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51917562

 

Someone on this thread asked about how infectious this new coronavirus is (sorry, lost the reference).

This article is several days old but their estimate is higher than seasonal flu with "R naught" about 2-3.1 vs. 1.3 for seasonal flu.

So it appears to be more infectious than seasonal flu and less infectious than measles.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/12/21172040/coronavirus-covid-19-virus-charts

EDIT: Changed wording and added one sentence to clarify what I meant.

 

The problem is none of the suggestions re pubs clubs etc are concrete or supported by govt intervention (like I said above). I hope people do take his advice and decide to act on it seriously though. And hopefully remote working will be rolled out properly. Did he say remote working “especially” in London? So what happens elsewhere? I feel there was a huge amount of vagueness and lack of concreteness.

He says to “avoid” things but doesn’t close any of them.

 

I think illustrations of this would include a family member taking drinks, food, Paracetamol or the like to an infected person.

To be clear concerning today's WHO press briefing, the period described for continuing the described measures was a minimum of 14 days after symptoms cease.

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1239617034901524481

 

Just to say, I hope people in the UK would follow the WHO advice and self isolate for at least 14 days from start of symptoms. And everyone else around them. Since we can’t get tested, to see if anyone of us has it or people in contact with us have it, then we have to assume we do have it and self isolate. This is the WHO advice. Not for 7 days.

 

Oh.. so potentially a very long time then? If you are having symptoms.

But if you are not symptomatic. But have been in contact with someone with symptoms. How long does the WHO say to self isolate for? Or do they not say to self isolate - they just say to test?

 

What a US federal health official said yesterday is that the number of US cases (and that's with some serious lack of testing) is at the level Italy was at, two weeks ago.

Sobering.

 

Mr Johnson slipped in 14 days at the press conference instead of 7 - hoping nobody would notice they had changed things, I assume.

 

What hits me starkly about today's press conference is that although the impression is given that we are catching up with other countries in the UK we are still unique (maybe with the US although I am not sure there is a plan there) in assuming that the epidemic will play out and infect most of the population. As indicated earlier the maths doesn't;t work. to stay within the capacity limits of the NHS you would need to string out the epidemic for at least 4years, more likely 10 and maybe 20.

 

I agree, but I don't think it's going to happen.

 

I'm afraid I haven't read anything by the WHO specific to isolating on coming into contact with a confirmed or suspected case.

Concerning the specifics of isolating, the PHE guidance has a bit more detailed information than the basic guidance that is circulating. Some of this I consider useful, such as sections on rubbish disposal and where living arrangements do not provide for complete isolation. Apologies if this has already been posted.

Stay at home: guidance for people with confirmed or possible coronavirus (COVID-19) infection
Published 12 March 2020
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ed-or-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection

 

[my bold]

It's been accelerating all along, not just now, and plenty of people have been saying so; just because the actual numbers were smaller to begin with does not change that. Should have listened to people who told them well beforehand that if you double the numbers every few days, then it's not long before those small numbers balloon into very large numbers - need to catch them while they are still small. Being blind so you only see the bigger numbers is bordering on criminal. Choosing to only listen to the experts you choose.

 

Do you think they're banking on a vaccine coming in a lot faster than that?

I'd rather they kept us all shut down to wait for a vaccine and more effective treatments...